1
00:00:04,010 --> 00:00:02,090
what is the nature of reality this is

2
00:00:06,470 --> 00:00:04,020
essentially what we're showing is that

3
00:00:08,810 --> 00:00:06,480
our thought processes are changing our

4
00:00:11,150 --> 00:00:08,820
reality in the future that's through

5
00:00:13,669 --> 00:00:11,160
just very well accepted behavioral

6
00:00:14,930 --> 00:00:13,679
perceptual and physiological mechanisms

7
00:00:17,210 --> 00:00:14,940
and all this is showing is that

8
00:00:19,070 --> 00:00:17,220
sometimes the effects can add up and be

9
00:00:20,990 --> 00:00:19,080
really profound

10
00:00:23,090 --> 00:00:21,000
today we talk about the placebo effect

11
00:00:25,130 --> 00:00:23,100
mind over matter and the cognitive traps

12
00:00:27,170 --> 00:00:25,140
that correlate with IQ David Robson is

13
00:00:29,509 --> 00:00:27,180
an author of science with a unique focus

14
00:00:31,370 --> 00:00:29,519
on human intellect and behavior he has a

15
00:00:33,290 --> 00:00:31,380
degree of mathematics from Oxford we

16
00:00:34,790 --> 00:00:33,300
both Bond over our similar degrees in

17
00:00:36,530 --> 00:00:34,800
mathematics except of course he's

18
00:00:38,630 --> 00:00:36,540
actually done something productive with

19
00:00:40,010 --> 00:00:38,640
his he's worked for new scientists BBC

20
00:00:42,049 --> 00:00:40,020
and he writes for several popular

21
00:00:43,970 --> 00:00:42,059
science magazines today we discussed the

22
00:00:46,250 --> 00:00:43,980
intelligence trap and the expectation

23
00:00:47,990 --> 00:00:46,260
effect my name is Kurt J Mongol I have a

24
00:00:49,549 --> 00:00:48,000
background in mathematical physics this

25
00:00:51,950 --> 00:00:49,559
podcast is called theories of everything

26
00:00:53,569 --> 00:00:51,960
is dedicated to the exploration of

27
00:00:55,250 --> 00:00:53,579
theories of everything from a

28
00:00:56,930 --> 00:00:55,260
theoretical physics perspective but as

29
00:00:58,850 --> 00:00:56,940
well as exploring the role Consciousness

30
00:01:00,650 --> 00:00:58,860
has to the fundamental laws of nature

31
00:01:02,450 --> 00:01:00,660
each sponsor as well as the patrons

32
00:01:04,789 --> 00:01:02,460
improves the quality of the videos

33
00:01:06,410 --> 00:01:04,799
drastically it improves the depth it

34
00:01:07,910 --> 00:01:06,420
improves the frequency and it goes

35
00:01:09,350 --> 00:01:07,920
toward paying the staff for instance

36
00:01:10,789 --> 00:01:09,360
someone who is editing this full time

37
00:01:12,410 --> 00:01:10,799
right now and then we have an operations

38
00:01:14,630 --> 00:01:12,420
manager in that vein I want to thank

39
00:01:15,950 --> 00:01:14,640
today's sponsor brilliant if you're

40
00:01:17,630 --> 00:01:15,960
familiar with toe you're familiar with

41
00:01:19,910 --> 00:01:17,640
Brilliance but for those who don't know

42
00:01:21,530 --> 00:01:19,920
Brilliance is a place where you go to

43
00:01:23,450 --> 00:01:21,540
learn math science and engineering

44
00:01:25,550 --> 00:01:23,460
through these bite-sized Interactive

45
00:01:27,109 --> 00:01:25,560
Learning experiences for example and I

46
00:01:28,730 --> 00:01:27,119
keep saying this I would like to do a

47
00:01:31,249 --> 00:01:28,740
podcast on information Theory

48
00:01:33,530 --> 00:01:31,259
particularly Chiara marleto which is

49
00:01:35,149 --> 00:01:33,540
David Deutsch's student has a theory of

50
00:01:37,069 --> 00:01:35,159
everything that she puts forward called

51
00:01:39,230 --> 00:01:37,079
Constructor Theory which is heavily

52
00:01:40,969 --> 00:01:39,240
contingent on information Theory so I

53
00:01:42,649 --> 00:01:40,979
took their course on random variable

54
00:01:44,749 --> 00:01:42,659
distributions and knowledge and

55
00:01:46,730 --> 00:01:44,759
uncertainty in order to learn a bit more

56
00:01:48,530 --> 00:01:46,740
about entropy now there's this formula

57
00:01:50,510 --> 00:01:48,540
for entropy essentially hammered into

58
00:01:52,429 --> 00:01:50,520
you as an undergraduate which seems to

59
00:01:54,230 --> 00:01:52,439
have fallen from the sky however when

60
00:01:55,730 --> 00:01:54,240
you take Brilliance course it was the

61
00:01:58,490 --> 00:01:55,740
first time that I could see that it's an

62
00:02:00,770 --> 00:01:58,500
extremely clear and intuitive formula

63
00:02:02,510 --> 00:02:00,780
that is to say that it would be

64
00:02:05,450 --> 00:02:02,520
unnatural to Define it in any other

65
00:02:07,670 --> 00:02:05,460
manner visit brilliant.org toe that is

66
00:02:09,529 --> 00:02:07,680
t-o-e to get 20 off the annual

67
00:02:12,110 --> 00:02:09,539
subscription and I recommend that you

68
00:02:13,790 --> 00:02:12,120
don't stop before four lessons I think

69
00:02:15,410 --> 00:02:13,800
you'll be greatly surprised that the

70
00:02:17,570 --> 00:02:15,420
ease at which you can now comprehend

71
00:02:19,670 --> 00:02:17,580
subjects you previously had a difficult

72
00:02:20,809 --> 00:02:19,680
time grocking at some point how also go

73
00:02:22,910 --> 00:02:20,819
through the courses and give a

74
00:02:23,990 --> 00:02:22,920
recommendation in order if you'd like to

75
00:02:25,970 --> 00:02:24,000
support the theories of everything

76
00:02:27,949 --> 00:02:25,980
podcast and help assist that is the

77
00:02:29,750 --> 00:02:27,959
improved video quality the depth the

78
00:02:31,369 --> 00:02:29,760
frequency of the podcast and paying the

79
00:02:34,910 --> 00:02:31,379
staff then do consider going to

80
00:02:36,229 --> 00:02:34,920
patreon.com Kurt J mungle the link is on

81
00:02:38,150 --> 00:02:36,239
screen as well as in the description

82
00:02:40,250 --> 00:02:38,160
there's a custom amount as well as

83
00:02:42,050 --> 00:02:40,260
already delineated tiers either way your

84
00:02:43,550 --> 00:02:42,060
viewership is thank you enough thank you

85
00:02:46,250 --> 00:02:43,560
and enjoy this interview with David

86
00:02:47,809 --> 00:02:46,260
Robson David thanks for coming out I

87
00:02:49,670 --> 00:02:47,819
appreciate it I've been listening and

88
00:02:51,410 --> 00:02:49,680
reading your book for about it was

89
00:02:54,170 --> 00:02:51,420
months ago and then intermittently in

90
00:02:55,930 --> 00:02:54,180
the past few weeks so thank you it's an

91
00:02:58,790 --> 00:02:55,940
honor to speak with you

92
00:03:00,470 --> 00:02:58,800
what got you interested in intelligence

93
00:03:02,509 --> 00:03:00,480
yeah I mean that's something I was

94
00:03:04,009 --> 00:03:02,519
interested in since I was you know quite

95
00:03:06,350 --> 00:03:04,019
a young child

96
00:03:08,210 --> 00:03:06,360
um because in the UK we have this kind

97
00:03:10,369 --> 00:03:08,220
of streamed school system

98
00:03:13,250 --> 00:03:10,379
um no it's only kind of in my area in

99
00:03:16,130 --> 00:03:13,260
the southeast of England but we

100
00:03:17,869 --> 00:03:16,140
um take this exam called the 11 plus

101
00:03:19,490 --> 00:03:17,879
um that decides which type of senior

102
00:03:21,470 --> 00:03:19,500
school we go to

103
00:03:23,690 --> 00:03:21,480
um and essentially it's an IQ test by

104
00:03:26,570 --> 00:03:23,700
any other name and if you score in the

105
00:03:28,369 --> 00:03:26,580
top 25 percent you um go to a grammar

106
00:03:31,009 --> 00:03:28,379
school which is meant to be for kind of

107
00:03:33,170 --> 00:03:31,019
academically gifted children the rest go

108
00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:33,180
to a comprehensive school so I took the

109
00:03:37,250 --> 00:03:34,920
exam I did quite well you know got into

110
00:03:38,990 --> 00:03:37,260
my senior school but I was just kind of

111
00:03:41,330 --> 00:03:39,000
a bit baffled by what this test was

112
00:03:42,589 --> 00:03:41,340
really measuring because it wasn't the

113
00:03:44,089 --> 00:03:42,599
version that I took you know really

114
00:03:46,190 --> 00:03:44,099
wasn't looking at what I'd learned at

115
00:03:48,050 --> 00:03:46,200
school previously it was all of these

116
00:03:50,509 --> 00:03:48,060
you know verbal non-verbal questions

117
00:03:53,210 --> 00:03:50,519
that um didn't seem to be directly

118
00:03:55,250 --> 00:03:53,220
related to kind of education

119
00:03:56,869 --> 00:03:55,260
um such as and so I just wondered you

120
00:03:59,570 --> 00:03:56,879
know it was kind of word association

121
00:04:01,430 --> 00:03:59,580
things there were the kind of mental

122
00:04:03,229 --> 00:04:01,440
rotation exercises all of these things

123
00:04:05,210 --> 00:04:03,239
that I later learned you know a kind of

124
00:04:07,970 --> 00:04:05,220
standard IQ questions

125
00:04:09,589 --> 00:04:07,980
um so they seemed quite narrow and I

126
00:04:11,630 --> 00:04:09,599
guess I was always interested in like

127
00:04:13,429 --> 00:04:11,640
what's it mean to be intelligent what

128
00:04:16,310 --> 00:04:13,439
and you know what is that measuring how

129
00:04:17,930 --> 00:04:16,320
kind of generalizable can it be and then

130
00:04:20,030 --> 00:04:17,940
when I became a science journalist like

131
00:04:21,949 --> 00:04:20,040
I became super interested in this

132
00:04:23,749 --> 00:04:21,959
phenomenon because

133
00:04:25,370 --> 00:04:23,759
um you know I was interviewing some of

134
00:04:27,469 --> 00:04:25,380
the world's greatest Minds you know

135
00:04:30,290 --> 00:04:27,479
people who you know changed our

136
00:04:31,969 --> 00:04:30,300
understanding of the universe and you

137
00:04:33,830 --> 00:04:31,979
kind of just had to look a little bit

138
00:04:35,330 --> 00:04:33,840
more deeply into their private lives to

139
00:04:37,310 --> 00:04:35,340
realize that while they were obviously

140
00:04:40,010 --> 00:04:37,320
showing High Intelligence in their

141
00:04:41,870 --> 00:04:40,020
particular field and they could also be

142
00:04:43,969 --> 00:04:41,880
um like surprisingly stupid and there

143
00:04:46,490 --> 00:04:43,979
really is another word for it and other

144
00:04:49,310 --> 00:04:46,500
areas of their life so you know there

145
00:04:51,230 --> 00:04:49,320
was this guy Kerry Mullis who developed

146
00:04:53,270 --> 00:04:51,240
the polymerase Chain Reaction which we

147
00:04:55,129 --> 00:04:53,280
use for all kinds of genetic testing and

148
00:04:56,270 --> 00:04:55,139
you know it's the PCR test that we use

149
00:04:58,370 --> 00:04:56,280
for covid

150
00:05:02,270 --> 00:04:58,380
um but he was a climate change denier he

151
00:05:03,469 --> 00:05:02,280
was in HIV denier he um even believed

152
00:05:05,390 --> 00:05:03,479
you know that he'd traveled in the

153
00:05:07,370 --> 00:05:05,400
astral plane that had met this kind of

154
00:05:09,110 --> 00:05:07,380
glowing raccoon in the forest of

155
00:05:11,330 --> 00:05:09,120
California you know had some very

156
00:05:14,990 --> 00:05:11,340
strange beliefs that just didn't seem to

157
00:05:16,430 --> 00:05:15,000
be scientific let alone the kind of um

158
00:05:18,590 --> 00:05:16,440
kind of thinking that we would expect

159
00:05:20,689 --> 00:05:18,600
from a Nobel Prize winner he won the

160
00:05:21,770 --> 00:05:20,699
Nobel Prize for chemistry for the PCR

161
00:05:24,350 --> 00:05:21,780
test

162
00:05:26,650 --> 00:05:24,360
um so you know it was really that they

163
00:05:29,090 --> 00:05:26,660
kind of led me back to this kind of old

164
00:05:30,590 --> 00:05:29,100
childhood fascination with intelligence

165
00:05:32,930 --> 00:05:30,600
and I just wanted to understand like

166
00:05:34,909 --> 00:05:32,940
what do we mean by intelligence what

167
00:05:37,129 --> 00:05:34,919
does the IQ test measure and what does

168
00:05:38,570 --> 00:05:37,139
it Miss and what are the other kind of

169
00:05:42,469 --> 00:05:38,580
mental traits

170
00:05:44,150 --> 00:05:42,479
we should be kind of cultivating and

171
00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:44,160
appreciating that aren't measured in

172
00:05:48,469 --> 00:05:46,500
kind of standard academic tests what do

173
00:05:51,170 --> 00:05:48,479
intelligence tests measure and what is

174
00:05:53,749 --> 00:05:51,180
intelligence yeah I mean so the the idea

175
00:05:55,550 --> 00:05:53,759
had been that you know we have this kind

176
00:05:57,409 --> 00:05:55,560
of generalized intelligence and this

177
00:05:58,550 --> 00:05:57,419
goes right back to the early 20th

178
00:06:01,129 --> 00:05:58,560
century

179
00:06:02,689 --> 00:06:01,139
um which is like a kind of underlying

180
00:06:04,670 --> 00:06:02,699
brain power

181
00:06:07,969 --> 00:06:04,680
um it's kind of almost like the kind of

182
00:06:10,249 --> 00:06:07,979
processing capability of the brain

183
00:06:12,110 --> 00:06:10,259
um and actually you know we know that IQ

184
00:06:14,029 --> 00:06:12,120
tests do measure something meaningful

185
00:06:15,830 --> 00:06:14,039
and that they may be reflecting some

186
00:06:17,570 --> 00:06:15,840
kind of anatomical difference in the

187
00:06:20,210 --> 00:06:17,580
brain that does reflect a kind of

188
00:06:21,590 --> 00:06:20,220
General processing ability because we

189
00:06:23,990 --> 00:06:21,600
know that even those you know very

190
00:06:26,870 --> 00:06:24,000
narrow abstract tasks that I described

191
00:06:28,610 --> 00:06:26,880
that I took in my childhood IQ test well

192
00:06:30,890 --> 00:06:28,620
you know people's performance on that

193
00:06:32,570 --> 00:06:30,900
does seem to predict their academic

194
00:06:34,249 --> 00:06:32,580
achievement and then also how well

195
00:06:35,809 --> 00:06:34,259
they're doing and their different

196
00:06:38,570 --> 00:06:35,819
professions and especially kind of

197
00:06:40,010 --> 00:06:38,580
professions that need kind of Greater

198
00:06:42,710 --> 00:06:40,020
um you know classically kind of

199
00:06:47,090 --> 00:06:42,720
intellectual inputs of things like law

200
00:06:49,129 --> 00:06:47,100
Medicine Science you know um so if we

201
00:06:51,290 --> 00:06:49,139
have a high IQ we probably are quicker

202
00:06:53,689 --> 00:06:51,300
to learn kind of complex stuff quicker

203
00:06:54,529 --> 00:06:53,699
to understand complex stuff

204
00:06:56,629 --> 00:06:54,539
um

205
00:06:57,890 --> 00:06:56,639
so you know it's useful I would I don't

206
00:07:00,590 --> 00:06:57,900
want to kind of

207
00:07:02,809 --> 00:07:00,600
uh you know downplay the the kind of

208
00:07:04,790 --> 00:07:02,819
relevance of IQ but the fact is that we

209
00:07:07,210 --> 00:07:04,800
also know that it's by no means the only

210
00:07:09,770 --> 00:07:07,220
thing that's important about someone's

211
00:07:12,230 --> 00:07:09,780
intellectual abilities

212
00:07:13,909 --> 00:07:12,240
um so you know even if you're looking at

213
00:07:15,770 --> 00:07:13,919
those kind of classic professions you

214
00:07:18,770 --> 00:07:15,780
know I only

215
00:07:20,390 --> 00:07:18,780
um kind of can explain the a kind of

216
00:07:22,070 --> 00:07:20,400
minority of the variants in people's

217
00:07:24,890 --> 00:07:22,080
performance you know so there's lots

218
00:07:26,689 --> 00:07:24,900
more to IQ even if you're a lawyer or a

219
00:07:28,309 --> 00:07:26,699
scientist or a

220
00:07:30,469 --> 00:07:28,319
um a doctor you know it's not going to

221
00:07:32,689 --> 00:07:30,479
make you incredibly creative for example

222
00:07:34,790 --> 00:07:32,699
so we know that it's missing something

223
00:07:36,589 --> 00:07:34,800
important and then what I really wanted

224
00:07:38,450 --> 00:07:36,599
to look at in the intelligence trap was

225
00:07:39,650 --> 00:07:38,460
just well like what is it missing and

226
00:07:42,170 --> 00:07:39,660
how does it relate to things like

227
00:07:44,210 --> 00:07:42,180
rationality and wisdom and you know kind

228
00:07:46,370 --> 00:07:44,220
of how we navigate all of the complex

229
00:07:48,890 --> 00:07:46,380
challenges that we face in life that

230
00:07:51,890 --> 00:07:48,900
aren't just based on a kind of academic

231
00:07:53,990 --> 00:07:51,900
test of knowledge and learning in the

232
00:07:55,490 --> 00:07:54,000
book something that stood out to me was

233
00:07:57,950 --> 00:07:55,500
that there are a variety of cognitive

234
00:08:01,370 --> 00:07:57,960
biases and there are some that people

235
00:08:02,930 --> 00:08:01,380
who have a high IQ are more prone to can

236
00:08:04,850 --> 00:08:02,940
you talk about those

237
00:08:06,650 --> 00:08:04,860
yeah I mean totally so it's quite

238
00:08:08,990 --> 00:08:06,660
complex I should expect

239
00:08:10,790 --> 00:08:09,000
um that you know a nuanced as well

240
00:08:12,770 --> 00:08:10,800
um but essentially like scientists have

241
00:08:14,689 --> 00:08:12,780
been looking at these kind of cognitive

242
00:08:16,610 --> 00:08:14,699
biases that have been studied by people

243
00:08:19,610 --> 00:08:16,620
like Daniel Kahneman since you know the

244
00:08:21,529 --> 00:08:19,620
1970s and we know you know humans act

245
00:08:23,629 --> 00:08:21,539
kind of irrationally in lots of

246
00:08:26,150 --> 00:08:23,639
different situations and to just give

247
00:08:28,189 --> 00:08:26,160
one example we suffer from this

248
00:08:30,529 --> 00:08:28,199
um thing called the sunk cost fallacy

249
00:08:33,350 --> 00:08:30,539
where you know if you're

250
00:08:35,389 --> 00:08:33,360
um pouring resources into a project like

251
00:08:38,329 --> 00:08:35,399
we feel very reluctant to abandon that

252
00:08:39,889 --> 00:08:38,339
project even when we realize virtually

253
00:08:43,370 --> 00:08:39,899
any gains we're going to get from

254
00:08:45,050 --> 00:08:43,380
continuing are only going to kind of um

255
00:08:47,750 --> 00:08:45,060
they're not going to pay off they're

256
00:08:49,130 --> 00:08:47,760
only going to lead us to a further loss

257
00:08:51,050 --> 00:08:49,140
um you know but the famous example of

258
00:08:53,150 --> 00:08:51,060
that is would be

259
00:08:55,730 --> 00:08:53,160
um Concord project in the UK and France

260
00:08:57,710 --> 00:08:55,740
it was like taking like heaps of money

261
00:08:59,750 --> 00:08:57,720
from both governments um it was never

262
00:09:01,009 --> 00:08:59,760
going to be profitable but once they'd

263
00:09:02,750 --> 00:09:01,019
started the governments just couldn't

264
00:09:04,550 --> 00:09:02,760
face kind of cutting off the project so

265
00:09:06,410 --> 00:09:04,560
they they continued even though it was

266
00:09:08,870 --> 00:09:06,420
always going to be a loss is the Vietnam

267
00:09:10,430 --> 00:09:08,880
War an example of that as well yeah that

268
00:09:13,670 --> 00:09:10,440
kind of thing would absolutely be an

269
00:09:15,710 --> 00:09:13,680
example yeah yeah yeah where and it's

270
00:09:17,930 --> 00:09:15,720
just really difficult to kind of um cut

271
00:09:20,269 --> 00:09:17,940
your losses and I'd set defeat um even

272
00:09:22,070 --> 00:09:20,279
even when you know that you're never

273
00:09:24,410 --> 00:09:22,080
gonna win yeah

274
00:09:26,990 --> 00:09:24,420
um and so you know the uh we've known

275
00:09:28,850 --> 00:09:27,000
that exists for like decades but what

276
00:09:30,650 --> 00:09:28,860
the new research had shown

277
00:09:33,110 --> 00:09:30,660
um research on what's known as the

278
00:09:35,750 --> 00:09:33,120
rationality quotient had actually shown

279
00:09:38,329 --> 00:09:35,760
us that people were you know High IQs

280
00:09:40,490 --> 00:09:38,339
compared to low IQs are really no more

281
00:09:42,290 --> 00:09:40,500
or less susceptible to that you know

282
00:09:44,570 --> 00:09:42,300
being super intelligent does not make

283
00:09:46,269 --> 00:09:44,580
you more rational in that case

284
00:09:48,350 --> 00:09:46,279
um so that's one example where

285
00:09:50,269 --> 00:09:48,360
surprisingly intelligence doesn't make

286
00:09:52,250 --> 00:09:50,279
you kind of more logical

287
00:09:54,710 --> 00:09:52,260
um but then there are other phenomena

288
00:09:57,290 --> 00:09:54,720
where actually High Intelligence can

289
00:09:59,570 --> 00:09:57,300
even make you more irrational

290
00:10:02,449 --> 00:09:59,580
um and that is when it gets to kind of

291
00:10:04,970 --> 00:10:02,459
justifying your bad decisions so if you

292
00:10:06,949 --> 00:10:04,980
have a really deeply funded belief in

293
00:10:09,230 --> 00:10:06,959
something you know it might be like

294
00:10:11,630 --> 00:10:09,240
Arthur Conan Doyle the author of this

295
00:10:14,150 --> 00:10:11,640
Sherlock Holmes novels um they believe

296
00:10:16,190 --> 00:10:14,160
in the Paranormal uh well what we know

297
00:10:19,250 --> 00:10:16,200
there is that then the more intelligent

298
00:10:21,590 --> 00:10:19,260
you are actually the more kind of uh

299
00:10:23,509 --> 00:10:21,600
resilient you are to any contradictory

300
00:10:26,389 --> 00:10:23,519
information so your intelligence

301
00:10:28,490 --> 00:10:26,399
actually protects your beliefs and

302
00:10:30,050 --> 00:10:28,500
prevents you from looking at the the

303
00:10:32,570 --> 00:10:30,060
evidence that might actually lead you to

304
00:10:34,790 --> 00:10:32,580
a more rational point of view and we saw

305
00:10:37,070 --> 00:10:34,800
that beautifully with Arthur Conan Doyle

306
00:10:38,690 --> 00:10:37,080
in all of his writing you know he's

307
00:10:40,550 --> 00:10:38,700
actually drawing on all of his

308
00:10:43,070 --> 00:10:40,560
creativity and his scientific knowledge

309
00:10:45,829 --> 00:10:43,080
to try to justify some really crazy

310
00:10:47,930 --> 00:10:45,839
beliefs um so for example he he believed

311
00:10:50,750 --> 00:10:47,940
in fairies he bought the Beast young

312
00:10:52,730 --> 00:10:50,760
girls in Yorkshire in the UK who had

313
00:10:54,470 --> 00:10:52,740
taken photographs of berries kind of

314
00:10:56,810 --> 00:10:54,480
around the Babbling Brook at the end of

315
00:10:59,810 --> 00:10:56,820
their garden and um you know other

316
00:11:01,490 --> 00:10:59,820
Skeptics around him you know pointed out

317
00:11:03,829 --> 00:11:01,500
things like um that you could kind of

318
00:11:05,870 --> 00:11:03,839
see there were cardboard cutouts stuck

319
00:11:07,610 --> 00:11:05,880
together with pins

320
00:11:09,410 --> 00:11:07,620
um he said well actually I'll you know

321
00:11:12,949 --> 00:11:09,420
let the pins are stuck in the middle of

322
00:11:14,750 --> 00:11:12,959
well those marks in the photos us only

323
00:11:17,210 --> 00:11:14,760
appear in the middle of the fairies

324
00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:17,220
bellies so he took it as evidence that

325
00:11:23,449 --> 00:11:18,360
it was

326
00:11:27,050 --> 00:11:23,459
of the umbilical cord so he actually

327
00:11:29,150 --> 00:11:27,060
used that contradictory evidence to then

328
00:11:30,590 --> 00:11:29,160
make this weird inference that varies

329
00:11:32,329 --> 00:11:30,600
are born

330
00:11:34,310 --> 00:11:32,339
um in the same way that humans are with

331
00:11:36,290 --> 00:11:34,320
an umbilical cord and then he drawn

332
00:11:38,569 --> 00:11:36,300
these theories of electromagnetism like

333
00:11:40,430 --> 00:11:38,579
Maxwell's new theories to explain why

334
00:11:41,870 --> 00:11:40,440
normally we couldn't see fairies with

335
00:11:43,069 --> 00:11:41,880
the naked eye

336
00:11:45,410 --> 00:11:43,079
um so he was actually using his

337
00:11:47,509 --> 00:11:45,420
knowledge there to justify this very

338
00:11:48,769 --> 00:11:47,519
strange belief that all of the people

339
00:11:50,810 --> 00:11:48,779
around him who may have been less

340
00:11:53,389 --> 00:11:50,820
intelligent just couldn't actually

341
00:11:55,250 --> 00:11:53,399
believe but it's almost like his

342
00:11:57,710 --> 00:11:55,260
intelligence was fueling this rational

343
00:12:00,410 --> 00:11:57,720
belief because it was so Central to him

344
00:12:03,110 --> 00:12:00,420
and you look into his biography and you

345
00:12:05,509 --> 00:12:03,120
kind of see that he uh was mourning at

346
00:12:07,069 --> 00:12:05,519
the loss of his son and so the belief in

347
00:12:08,930 --> 00:12:07,079
this kind of spirit realm actually

348
00:12:10,670 --> 00:12:08,940
became really important to him

349
00:12:12,710 --> 00:12:10,680
personally because he wanted to believe

350
00:12:14,569 --> 00:12:12,720
that you know there was an afterlife

351
00:12:17,630 --> 00:12:14,579
that he would be able to see his son

352
00:12:19,190 --> 00:12:17,640
again but then he was actually you know

353
00:12:21,530 --> 00:12:19,200
rather than helping him to deal with

354
00:12:23,389 --> 00:12:21,540
that grief you know these beliefs were

355
00:12:26,329 --> 00:12:23,399
just causing him to pour you know fast

356
00:12:28,790 --> 00:12:26,339
some persons of pounds into kind of

357
00:12:30,470 --> 00:12:28,800
supporting these fraudulent mediums and

358
00:12:33,050 --> 00:12:30,480
to you know he ruined his reputation

359
00:12:34,790 --> 00:12:33,060
amongst his peers by kind of

360
00:12:36,590 --> 00:12:34,800
um supporting all of these beliefs so it

361
00:12:38,569 --> 00:12:36,600
really backfired for him and that was

362
00:12:41,329 --> 00:12:38,579
for me a very clear example of how

363
00:12:43,910 --> 00:12:41,339
intelligence can can kind of lead us

364
00:12:46,310 --> 00:12:43,920
astray it can actually drive us along

365
00:12:48,170 --> 00:12:46,320
the wrong path in life if we don't have

366
00:12:50,690 --> 00:12:48,180
kind of checks and balances to make sure

367
00:12:52,370 --> 00:12:50,700
that we're applying it correctly

368
00:12:54,829 --> 00:12:52,380
do you make an equivalence between

369
00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:54,839
irrationality and illogicalness

370
00:12:58,850 --> 00:12:56,760
illogicality

371
00:13:01,129 --> 00:12:58,860
yeah I mean I do think they're very

372
00:13:03,590 --> 00:13:01,139
related and essentially you know when to

373
00:13:04,850 --> 00:13:03,600
talk about irrationality I'm kind of

374
00:13:07,910 --> 00:13:04,860
trying to say when

375
00:13:11,389 --> 00:13:07,920
it's all of those cases where where

376
00:13:13,610 --> 00:13:11,399
not making the optimum decision based on

377
00:13:15,290 --> 00:13:13,620
the information in front of us and you

378
00:13:18,410 --> 00:13:15,300
know anyone can make a mistake if you

379
00:13:21,170 --> 00:13:18,420
don't have any sufficient information

380
00:13:24,050 --> 00:13:21,180
um but you know in someone like African

381
00:13:26,329 --> 00:13:24,060
and Doyle's case you know there was

382
00:13:28,009 --> 00:13:26,339
enough information available even if we

383
00:13:29,449 --> 00:13:28,019
didn't have all the scientific knowledge

384
00:13:31,250 --> 00:13:29,459
we have today there was enough to

385
00:13:34,970 --> 00:13:31,260
suggest that these beliefs in the

386
00:13:36,710 --> 00:13:34,980
Paranormal were very irrational but um

387
00:13:39,170 --> 00:13:36,720
and you know a bunch of people around

388
00:13:40,430 --> 00:13:39,180
him were skeptical but he wasn't so

389
00:13:41,810 --> 00:13:40,440
that's you know that's what I mean by

390
00:13:45,110 --> 00:13:41,820
rationality

391
00:13:47,449 --> 00:13:45,120
like financial decision making you know

392
00:13:48,710 --> 00:13:47,459
causing you to pay too much but

393
00:13:50,750 --> 00:13:48,720
um a property or to make a better

394
00:13:52,670 --> 00:13:50,760
investment you know it could be in all

395
00:13:55,009 --> 00:13:52,680
kinds of areas but it's essentially when

396
00:13:56,090 --> 00:13:55,019
you're making the a less Optimum

397
00:13:58,009 --> 00:13:56,100
decision

398
00:13:59,150 --> 00:13:58,019
um despite evidence that should should

399
00:14:00,290 --> 00:13:59,160
have helped you to make a better

400
00:14:02,269 --> 00:14:00,300
decision

401
00:14:04,910 --> 00:14:02,279
it does rationality incorporate

402
00:14:07,490 --> 00:14:04,920
healthiness into it so what I mean is

403
00:14:08,930 --> 00:14:07,500
that it's rational to make a decision or

404
00:14:10,910 --> 00:14:08,940
to have your goal as something that's

405
00:14:13,250 --> 00:14:10,920
salutary in the long run

406
00:14:15,110 --> 00:14:13,260
whereas logical as just following a

407
00:14:18,110 --> 00:14:15,120
sequence of steps like modus opponents

408
00:14:20,150 --> 00:14:18,120
and so on like axioms I think that's a

409
00:14:22,190 --> 00:14:20,160
great way of looking at it you know

410
00:14:24,829 --> 00:14:22,200
logic I think could be restricted more

411
00:14:25,970 --> 00:14:24,839
to you know like a very specific kind of

412
00:14:28,069 --> 00:14:25,980
question

413
00:14:29,629 --> 00:14:28,079
um but like I do think when we're

414
00:14:31,009 --> 00:14:29,639
talking about irrational when we're

415
00:14:33,290 --> 00:14:31,019
talking about rationality and

416
00:14:35,269 --> 00:14:33,300
irrationality we are really thinking

417
00:14:37,910 --> 00:14:35,279
about you know how do we make decisions

418
00:14:40,670 --> 00:14:37,920
that align with our long-term goals and

419
00:14:43,250 --> 00:14:40,680
in making the kind of optimum life for

420
00:14:45,530 --> 00:14:43,260
ourselves the reason I ask that is then

421
00:14:47,449 --> 00:14:45,540
could there not be the argument that Sir

422
00:14:49,610 --> 00:14:47,459
Arthur Conan Doyle was doing what's

423
00:14:52,189 --> 00:14:49,620
rational because it provided him comfort

424
00:14:53,990 --> 00:14:52,199
and so some of these false beliefs let's

425
00:14:55,670 --> 00:14:54,000
just say false in a scientific sense or

426
00:14:56,990 --> 00:14:55,680
factual sense and that's putting a huge

427
00:14:58,670 --> 00:14:57,000
asterisk because we don't know the

428
00:15:00,470 --> 00:14:58,680
answers to large questions but let's

429
00:15:02,990 --> 00:15:00,480
just put a pin in there for now that

430
00:15:04,790 --> 00:15:03,000
belief in quote unquote factually false

431
00:15:06,530 --> 00:15:04,800
ideas can be rational because they're

432
00:15:08,389 --> 00:15:06,540
adaptive

433
00:15:11,329 --> 00:15:08,399
um yeah I mean that's not the kind of

434
00:15:13,910 --> 00:15:11,339
definition of rationality I would take

435
00:15:16,550 --> 00:15:13,920
because I feel like

436
00:15:18,769 --> 00:15:16,560
so say you know I feel like oh yeah it's

437
00:15:20,629 --> 00:15:18,779
true Arthur Conan Doyle kind of wanted

438
00:15:22,129 --> 00:15:20,639
to have that emotional Comfort but I

439
00:15:24,050 --> 00:15:22,139
think if you asked him

440
00:15:26,269 --> 00:15:24,060
would you be willing to believe in these

441
00:15:29,689 --> 00:15:26,279
things even if they were proven to be

442
00:15:31,370 --> 00:15:29,699
untrue he would have valued truth above

443
00:15:33,470 --> 00:15:31,380
emotional Comfort like I'm certain

444
00:15:35,629 --> 00:15:33,480
looking at his writings that he really

445
00:15:37,730 --> 00:15:35,639
wanted to believe the truth and felt

446
00:15:39,050 --> 00:15:37,740
like he was spreading the truth for

447
00:15:40,430 --> 00:15:39,060
other people

448
00:15:41,810 --> 00:15:40,440
um so it's all about the kind of

449
00:15:44,750 --> 00:15:41,820
alignment of his goals but I really

450
00:15:47,210 --> 00:15:44,760
think he did actually value rationality

451
00:15:49,189 --> 00:15:47,220
and we can see that in Sherlock Holmes

452
00:15:52,310 --> 00:15:49,199
The Character himself is like a the

453
00:15:55,009 --> 00:15:52,320
epitome of rationality so I think like

454
00:15:59,090 --> 00:15:55,019
if yeah like I just think in that case

455
00:16:01,430 --> 00:15:59,100
it's like he would have rather had a

456
00:16:03,410 --> 00:16:01,440
rational belief than a comforting belief

457
00:16:06,110 --> 00:16:03,420
like a true belief than a comforting

458
00:16:09,170 --> 00:16:06,120
belief that he was still drawn to this

459
00:16:09,829 --> 00:16:09,180
comforting belief because

460
00:16:11,930 --> 00:16:09,839
um

461
00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:11,940
yeah because I I guess he couldn't

462
00:16:17,870 --> 00:16:15,000
somehow couldn't resist it yeah but I

463
00:16:19,850 --> 00:16:17,880
agree like I think it you know

464
00:16:21,769 --> 00:16:19,860
definitions of rationality depend on

465
00:16:23,150 --> 00:16:21,779
what you value in life but you know

466
00:16:25,129 --> 00:16:23,160
scientists and psychologists in

467
00:16:27,350 --> 00:16:25,139
particular talk about epistemic

468
00:16:29,090 --> 00:16:27,360
rationality and that's really where you

469
00:16:31,610 --> 00:16:29,100
value truth and you're always looking

470
00:16:33,530 --> 00:16:31,620
for truth and then if that is your goal

471
00:16:36,170 --> 00:16:33,540
and you're then believing something that

472
00:16:38,449 --> 00:16:36,180
is not supported by the evidence then is

473
00:16:40,009 --> 00:16:38,459
a rational in an epistemic sense and

474
00:16:42,290 --> 00:16:40,019
that's absolutely what Arthur Conan

475
00:16:45,110 --> 00:16:42,300
Doyle the suffering approach let's give

476
00:16:46,910 --> 00:16:45,120
philosophical for a moment would valuing

477
00:16:49,370 --> 00:16:46,920
the truth even if it led you to a

478
00:16:52,430 --> 00:16:49,380
deleterious outcome be rational so let's

479
00:16:54,530 --> 00:16:52,440
say I value the truth I want to know how

480
00:16:56,990 --> 00:16:54,540
potent can this virus get so I'm going

481
00:16:59,810 --> 00:16:57,000
to make a virus or make Ebola and cross

482
00:17:02,030 --> 00:16:59,820
that with whatever is extremely virulent

483
00:17:03,889 --> 00:17:02,040
because I'm interested in the truth but

484
00:17:05,510 --> 00:17:03,899
yet that has the potential of destroying

485
00:17:07,610 --> 00:17:05,520
the entire world or let me investigate

486
00:17:09,289 --> 00:17:07,620
an even more potent bomb than the

487
00:17:11,569 --> 00:17:09,299
hydrogen bomb that's a truthful Endeavor

488
00:17:13,250 --> 00:17:11,579
a scientific truthful one my question is

489
00:17:15,890 --> 00:17:13,260
just because something is truthful or

490
00:17:17,569 --> 00:17:15,900
factually the case does pursuing it mean

491
00:17:18,890 --> 00:17:17,579
that you're irrational or can there be

492
00:17:20,750 --> 00:17:18,900
something irrational about pursuing the

493
00:17:23,750 --> 00:17:20,760
truth like should you value truth about

494
00:17:25,730 --> 00:17:23,760
what's nourishing yeah yeah it corrects

495
00:17:27,049 --> 00:17:25,740
you're not flying too close to the Sun

496
00:17:29,150 --> 00:17:27,059
you know

497
00:17:31,370 --> 00:17:29,160
um is is it always good to push kind of

498
00:17:32,090 --> 00:17:31,380
human understanding that far

499
00:17:34,850 --> 00:17:32,100
um

500
00:17:38,029 --> 00:17:34,860
now I would say that's kind of whether

501
00:17:40,970 --> 00:17:38,039
you pursue that or not you know

502
00:17:43,549 --> 00:17:40,980
isn't to me a question of rationality

503
00:17:45,409 --> 00:17:43,559
um because say

504
00:17:48,289 --> 00:17:45,419
so for some of these questions I think

505
00:17:50,690 --> 00:17:48,299
it's perfectly rational for you to say I

506
00:17:53,029 --> 00:17:50,700
don't know and to have that humility you

507
00:17:55,850 --> 00:17:53,039
can just be you know like you can say

508
00:17:58,850 --> 00:17:55,860
and it's totally factually correct and

509
00:18:01,549 --> 00:17:58,860
epistemically correct to be like we

510
00:18:04,970 --> 00:18:01,559
don't know how dangerous this virus

511
00:18:07,070 --> 00:18:04,980
could become or we don't know how potent

512
00:18:09,169 --> 00:18:07,080
that bomb can become and we don't want

513
00:18:11,390 --> 00:18:09,179
to pursue that because the risk is too

514
00:18:14,090 --> 00:18:11,400
great for our other goals which is the

515
00:18:15,830 --> 00:18:14,100
survival of humanity so in that sense I

516
00:18:17,810 --> 00:18:15,840
think it's you know more rational really

517
00:18:19,250 --> 00:18:17,820
to say we don't know

518
00:18:21,230 --> 00:18:19,260
um and we don't want to know we don't

519
00:18:24,169 --> 00:18:21,240
want to take that risk so it's not

520
00:18:26,510 --> 00:18:24,179
always just pursuing the truth above all

521
00:18:29,090 --> 00:18:26,520
else but it's more also than accepting

522
00:18:31,130 --> 00:18:29,100
like uh calibrating you know your

523
00:18:33,169 --> 00:18:31,140
beliefs about that particular phenomenon

524
00:18:35,630 --> 00:18:33,179
and saying you don't know is a perfectly

525
00:18:36,710 --> 00:18:35,640
reasonable rational response to

526
00:18:38,510 --> 00:18:36,720
something

527
00:18:40,190 --> 00:18:38,520
um what would be irrational would be for

528
00:18:42,830 --> 00:18:40,200
you to make some claim that the bomb

529
00:18:45,130 --> 00:18:42,840
isn't is or isn't this dangerous or that

530
00:18:48,049 --> 00:18:45,140
the virus is is or isn't this dangerous

531
00:18:50,150 --> 00:18:48,059
based on a lack of information

532
00:18:51,409 --> 00:18:50,160
um so yeah that's why I stand on that I

533
00:18:53,690 --> 00:18:51,419
certainly don't think we should have a

534
00:18:56,029 --> 00:18:53,700
Relentless Pursuit for truth over all

535
00:18:57,409 --> 00:18:56,039
else but um but I do think we just have

536
00:18:59,690 --> 00:18:57,419
to be honest about where the current

537
00:19:01,250 --> 00:18:59,700
level of evidence stands okay while

538
00:19:03,049 --> 00:19:01,260
we're on this I want to get to the

539
00:19:05,990 --> 00:19:03,059
growth mindset and then a fixed mindset

540
00:19:09,169 --> 00:19:06,000
but also as you steel manned what IQ is

541
00:19:11,330 --> 00:19:09,179
earlier I want you to steal man the

542
00:19:13,549 --> 00:19:11,340
dangers of an open mind only because

543
00:19:16,430 --> 00:19:13,559
we're constantly talking about that we

544
00:19:18,950 --> 00:19:16,440
need more openness and as someone who

545
00:19:20,450 --> 00:19:18,960
has been exploring an unjudiciously

546
00:19:22,850 --> 00:19:20,460
exploring theories of everything let's

547
00:19:24,890 --> 00:19:22,860
say I've been privy to the more heinous

548
00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:24,900
aspects of an open mind and I mean that

549
00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:26,640
in a psychological sense what I'm saying

550
00:19:32,690 --> 00:19:30,480
is that the case for the more ruinous

551
00:19:34,549 --> 00:19:32,700
aspects of an open mind are rarely made

552
00:19:35,570 --> 00:19:34,559
at least by intellectuals because

553
00:19:36,590 --> 00:19:35,580
they're constantly saying we need to

554
00:19:38,990 --> 00:19:36,600
have more of an open mind more of an

555
00:19:40,130 --> 00:19:39,000
open mind so I'm curious for you to

556
00:19:42,169 --> 00:19:40,140
steal man

557
00:19:43,430 --> 00:19:42,179
what it's like to have too much of an

558
00:19:44,990 --> 00:19:43,440
open mind how do we know when we're too

559
00:19:46,730 --> 00:19:45,000
open

560
00:19:49,190 --> 00:19:46,740
um interesting I mean given the examples

561
00:19:50,690 --> 00:19:49,200
the gay black Lovecraft quotes it makes

562
00:19:52,850 --> 00:19:50,700
me think of

563
00:19:54,590 --> 00:19:52,860
um you know Plato's idea of the people

564
00:19:56,810 --> 00:19:54,600
kind of in the cave looking at the

565
00:20:00,529 --> 00:19:56,820
shadows and one of the prisoners escapes

566
00:20:02,990 --> 00:20:00,539
he you know goes he sees the fire he

567
00:20:05,750 --> 00:20:03,000
sees what's beyond the fire and you know

568
00:20:07,430 --> 00:20:05,760
he sees the beautiful reality but it's

569
00:20:09,350 --> 00:20:07,440
like how can he persuade the other

570
00:20:12,590 --> 00:20:09,360
prisoners that they want to see reality

571
00:20:14,690 --> 00:20:12,600
rather than sticking to what they know

572
00:20:16,850 --> 00:20:14,700
um and you know so yeah I think this is

573
00:20:18,470 --> 00:20:16,860
a question that we've had for Millennia

574
00:20:21,529 --> 00:20:18,480
on kind of

575
00:20:23,990 --> 00:20:21,539
and how far do we probe like

576
00:20:25,970 --> 00:20:24,000
um how much can we how can we deal with

577
00:20:28,549 --> 00:20:25,980
like a new kind of Truth

578
00:20:30,289 --> 00:20:28,559
um so I'd absolutely think that is an

579
00:20:32,330 --> 00:20:30,299
open question

580
00:20:34,010 --> 00:20:32,340
um you know I think the a great example

581
00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:34,020
which I'm sure you've covered in this

582
00:20:39,770 --> 00:20:36,960
series is you know what if we discovered

583
00:20:41,930 --> 00:20:39,780
that we didn't have free will you know

584
00:20:44,630 --> 00:20:41,940
what kinds of consequences would that

585
00:20:46,130 --> 00:20:44,640
help for kind of human behavior and

586
00:20:48,049 --> 00:20:46,140
actually there are scientific studies

587
00:20:51,470 --> 00:20:48,059
that have tried to manipulate people's

588
00:20:53,029 --> 00:20:51,480
beliefs in Free Will or um like a free

589
00:20:55,310 --> 00:20:53,039
will and you know it does have important

590
00:20:57,650 --> 00:20:55,320
consequences for things like our moral

591
00:20:59,150 --> 00:20:57,660
Behavior you know our kind of sort of

592
00:21:00,950 --> 00:20:59,160
discipline like if we don't believe we

593
00:21:02,630 --> 00:21:00,960
have free will we really struggle to

594
00:21:04,789 --> 00:21:02,640
kind of motivate ourselves to do

595
00:21:05,990 --> 00:21:04,799
anything because you just feel like you

596
00:21:07,730 --> 00:21:06,000
know what's the point Your Fate has

597
00:21:10,430 --> 00:21:07,740
already determined

598
00:21:12,830 --> 00:21:10,440
um so you know I do think like we could

599
00:21:14,690 --> 00:21:12,840
come to a stage where we do come to some

600
00:21:17,090 --> 00:21:14,700
conclusion about kind of consciousness

601
00:21:20,029 --> 00:21:17,100
of the origins of the universe where we

602
00:21:21,890 --> 00:21:20,039
we have to wrestle with with these um

603
00:21:24,289 --> 00:21:21,900
these issues and we do have to know

604
00:21:27,110 --> 00:21:24,299
whether you know how close to the Sun

605
00:21:29,510 --> 00:21:27,120
we're gonna fly and if we're like Icarus

606
00:21:31,730 --> 00:21:29,520
um yeah I don't really have an answer

607
00:21:34,850 --> 00:21:31,740
but that I mean my hunch at the moment

608
00:21:38,690 --> 00:21:34,860
is that we're so far away from that but

609
00:21:40,850 --> 00:21:38,700
as a society we should be trying to kind

610
00:21:43,730 --> 00:21:40,860
of pursue you know as much knowledge as

611
00:21:46,669 --> 00:21:43,740
we can provided that it is you know with

612
00:21:49,010 --> 00:21:46,679
it um kind of conducted in a safe way so

613
00:21:51,049 --> 00:21:49,020
you know we don't want to kind of create

614
00:21:53,750 --> 00:21:51,059
that deadly virus

615
00:21:56,390 --> 00:21:53,760
um unless we can be certain that

616
00:21:58,010 --> 00:21:56,400
while studying it you know it won't leak

617
00:21:59,930 --> 00:21:58,020
from a lab you know that kind of thing

618
00:22:02,210 --> 00:21:59,940
like we have to have all these kind of

619
00:22:04,909 --> 00:22:02,220
measures in place we even a small

620
00:22:06,110 --> 00:22:04,919
possibility of a disaster

621
00:22:07,669 --> 00:22:06,120
um I don't think it's worth it because

622
00:22:10,010 --> 00:22:07,679
you know eventually you have enough of

623
00:22:11,870 --> 00:22:10,020
those kinds of near misses of one time

624
00:22:14,029 --> 00:22:11,880
is going to

625
00:22:16,310 --> 00:22:14,039
um backfire and you could face a real

626
00:22:18,350 --> 00:22:16,320
catastrophe so you know I think like

627
00:22:20,630 --> 00:22:18,360
that's why we have so many like

628
00:22:22,250 --> 00:22:20,640
regulations and rules in science and you

629
00:22:23,990 --> 00:22:22,260
know they don't always work perfectly we

630
00:22:25,970 --> 00:22:24,000
should always be improving them but I do

631
00:22:27,649 --> 00:22:25,980
think we need to kind of temper what we

632
00:22:29,990 --> 00:22:27,659
do and always make sure that it doesn't

633
00:22:32,330 --> 00:22:30,000
kind of bring about risks

634
00:22:35,029 --> 00:22:32,340
um but in general yeah I don't think

635
00:22:37,669 --> 00:22:35,039
we're kind of close to that kind of

636
00:22:39,710 --> 00:22:37,679
um that kind of issue I think separately

637
00:22:41,810 --> 00:22:39,720
there's a question of the individual

638
00:22:43,610 --> 00:22:41,820
like you know can it be just too

639
00:22:45,470 --> 00:22:43,620
overwhelming for an individual who is

640
00:22:47,690 --> 00:22:45,480
like so relentlessly curious that

641
00:22:49,250 --> 00:22:47,700
they're almost overwhelmed by what

642
00:22:51,830 --> 00:22:49,260
they're discovering and I think that's

643
00:22:54,590 --> 00:22:51,840
also something to bear in mind you know

644
00:22:56,930 --> 00:22:54,600
I think you know I think curiosity is

645
00:22:58,430 --> 00:22:56,940
something that brings so many benefits

646
00:23:00,230 --> 00:22:58,440
and I write about that in the

647
00:23:02,390 --> 00:23:00,240
intelligence trap you know how like

648
00:23:04,490 --> 00:23:02,400
curiosity you know it literally makes

649
00:23:06,470 --> 00:23:04,500
you smarter and that it makes you learn

650
00:23:08,930 --> 00:23:06,480
more quickly it makes you more rational

651
00:23:10,370 --> 00:23:08,940
because you find it easier to balance

652
00:23:12,350 --> 00:23:10,380
kind of information that might be

653
00:23:15,169 --> 00:23:12,360
contradictory you know you're kind of

654
00:23:17,270 --> 00:23:15,179
looking but the uh you're you're willing

655
00:23:18,890 --> 00:23:17,280
to accept like um evidence that

656
00:23:20,450 --> 00:23:18,900
challenges you which is really important

657
00:23:23,149 --> 00:23:20,460
for being rational so you're not

658
00:23:24,950 --> 00:23:23,159
suffering from confirmation bias

659
00:23:27,049 --> 00:23:24,960
um so I had always thought that we

660
00:23:28,789 --> 00:23:27,059
should like cultivate curiosity but I

661
00:23:31,250 --> 00:23:28,799
think if you get to a point where you're

662
00:23:33,710 --> 00:23:31,260
actually just struggling then maybe you

663
00:23:36,350 --> 00:23:33,720
know you also have to slow down a bit or

664
00:23:37,909 --> 00:23:36,360
take your time you know manage like how

665
00:23:39,289 --> 00:23:37,919
you're dealing with that Curiosity

666
00:23:41,270 --> 00:23:39,299
making sure that you're not kind of

667
00:23:44,210 --> 00:23:41,280
pursuing too much

668
00:23:46,310 --> 00:23:44,220
um too quickly at any one time so I

669
00:23:48,350 --> 00:23:46,320
guess that's where I stand on that is

670
00:23:50,330 --> 00:23:48,360
that um even though you know

671
00:23:52,370 --> 00:23:50,340
open-mindedness curiosity you know

672
00:23:55,130 --> 00:23:52,380
they're great traits we always have to

673
00:23:57,350 --> 00:23:55,140
kind of rain them in and make sure that

674
00:23:59,690 --> 00:23:57,360
like um they're working to our advantage

675
00:24:01,430 --> 00:23:59,700
and that you know we're not going too

676
00:24:02,990 --> 00:24:01,440
quickly about thinking about the

677
00:24:05,450 --> 00:24:03,000
consequences whether that's personal

678
00:24:06,590 --> 00:24:05,460
where but that's for society can you

679
00:24:08,750 --> 00:24:06,600
talk about some of the benefits of

680
00:24:10,490 --> 00:24:08,760
curiosity and then also I'm going to ask

681
00:24:12,649 --> 00:24:10,500
you about how does one temper their

682
00:24:14,690 --> 00:24:12,659
curiosity if they're much like myself or

683
00:24:15,950 --> 00:24:14,700
I feel like it's not producing positive

684
00:24:19,310 --> 00:24:15,960
effects always

685
00:24:22,549 --> 00:24:19,320
right so curiosity you know it's this

686
00:24:24,470 --> 00:24:22,559
kind of hunger for knowledge and we know

687
00:24:26,390 --> 00:24:24,480
that you know neurologically speaking

688
00:24:28,610 --> 00:24:26,400
when you feel curiosity like some

689
00:24:30,590 --> 00:24:28,620
amazing things happen in the brain so it

690
00:24:33,049 --> 00:24:30,600
actually triggers the release of

691
00:24:35,450 --> 00:24:33,059
dopamine which we think of as being like

692
00:24:37,250 --> 00:24:35,460
you know a neurotransmitter associated

693
00:24:39,409 --> 00:24:37,260
with pleasure and it might be why

694
00:24:41,810 --> 00:24:39,419
finding out new things is you know is

695
00:24:45,590 --> 00:24:41,820
fun but actually dopamine also

696
00:24:48,289 --> 00:24:45,600
strengthens um the storage of memories

697
00:24:49,970 --> 00:24:48,299
that kind of cements the memory for you

698
00:24:51,770 --> 00:24:49,980
so it actually improves your long-term

699
00:24:53,270 --> 00:24:51,780
memory of what you're learning and then

700
00:24:55,549 --> 00:24:53,280
there's this kind of amazing kind of

701
00:24:58,070 --> 00:24:55,559
spillover like Halo of things so if

702
00:25:00,350 --> 00:24:58,080
you're curious about something you know

703
00:25:02,090 --> 00:25:00,360
in a kind of physics class or you know

704
00:25:04,310 --> 00:25:02,100
when you're reading a book like it

705
00:25:05,810 --> 00:25:04,320
actually helps you to learn not just

706
00:25:07,970 --> 00:25:05,820
that one fact but to actually

707
00:25:10,070 --> 00:25:07,980
strengthens your memories for all of the

708
00:25:12,529 --> 00:25:10,080
other facts that surround it so you know

709
00:25:14,149 --> 00:25:12,539
in education making sure that someone is

710
00:25:17,149 --> 00:25:14,159
curious and that they can pursue their

711
00:25:19,909 --> 00:25:17,159
curiosity it's really beneficial it can

712
00:25:23,090 --> 00:25:19,919
actually help to kind of um

713
00:25:25,310 --> 00:25:23,100
uh you know like erase or blur the

714
00:25:27,350 --> 00:25:25,320
differences that arise from differences

715
00:25:29,210 --> 00:25:27,360
in IQ and learning if someone's really

716
00:25:31,190 --> 00:25:29,220
curious then really dedicated you know

717
00:25:33,649 --> 00:25:31,200
that's as good as having a higher IQ

718
00:25:35,630 --> 00:25:33,659
essentially even if the IQ is closer to

719
00:25:37,850 --> 00:25:35,640
average so we know it's it's important

720
00:25:40,549 --> 00:25:37,860
in learning and memory and then we also

721
00:25:41,870 --> 00:25:40,559
know that Curiosity can help to offset

722
00:25:44,029 --> 00:25:41,880
some of the

723
00:25:46,850 --> 00:25:44,039
um kind of biases that can sometimes

724
00:25:48,830 --> 00:25:46,860
come with greater intelligence so I

725
00:25:50,750 --> 00:25:48,840
mentioned earlier that people like

726
00:25:53,510 --> 00:25:50,760
Arthur Conan Doyle suffer from this

727
00:25:55,610 --> 00:25:53,520
thing called the my side bias and that

728
00:25:57,769 --> 00:25:55,620
is and motivated reasoning which is

729
00:25:59,330 --> 00:25:57,779
where you you're attached to a

730
00:26:01,310 --> 00:25:59,340
particular Viewpoint and then you only

731
00:26:03,230 --> 00:26:01,320
search for the evidence that supports

732
00:26:05,390 --> 00:26:03,240
that Viewpoint and you like use your

733
00:26:07,669 --> 00:26:05,400
intelligence to dismiss any arguments

734
00:26:09,350 --> 00:26:07,679
that might contradict your point of view

735
00:26:11,450 --> 00:26:09,360
um which can lead you down some kind of

736
00:26:12,830 --> 00:26:11,460
wormholes where you're believing

737
00:26:15,110 --> 00:26:12,840
something that you know most other

738
00:26:17,269 --> 00:26:15,120
people consider to be purely irrational

739
00:26:19,010 --> 00:26:17,279
and you know it's leading you to pursue

740
00:26:20,570 --> 00:26:19,020
a goal that isn't actually helping you

741
00:26:22,490 --> 00:26:20,580
in the long run

742
00:26:24,769 --> 00:26:22,500
um now what curiosity does is it

743
00:26:27,289 --> 00:26:24,779
actually protects you from that and it's

744
00:26:30,350 --> 00:26:27,299
because the Curiosity overrides that

745
00:26:32,570 --> 00:26:30,360
emotional kind of pull of your initial

746
00:26:35,090 --> 00:26:32,580
belief so you you know you might have an

747
00:26:37,430 --> 00:26:35,100
initial belief in you know something

748
00:26:40,070 --> 00:26:37,440
like the Paranormal or climate change

749
00:26:41,810 --> 00:26:40,080
denialism or you know any of these

750
00:26:42,649 --> 00:26:41,820
beliefs

751
00:26:45,289 --> 00:26:42,659
um

752
00:26:48,830 --> 00:26:45,299
that maybe don't tally with the

753
00:26:51,470 --> 00:26:48,840
scientific evidence but if you're super

754
00:26:54,350 --> 00:26:51,480
um curious and open-minded it's like

755
00:26:56,630 --> 00:26:54,360
then your love of new law new knowledge

756
00:26:58,549 --> 00:26:56,640
will mean that you are willing to read

757
00:27:00,529 --> 00:26:58,559
that evidence that contradicts that

758
00:27:02,690 --> 00:27:00,539
point of view like you you're so hungry

759
00:27:04,789 --> 00:27:02,700
for knowledge and you're so desperate to

760
00:27:06,710 --> 00:27:04,799
actually get to the bottom of this kind

761
00:27:09,350 --> 00:27:06,720
of problem that you'll you know you'll

762
00:27:10,909 --> 00:27:09,360
read that report that kind of disproves

763
00:27:13,130 --> 00:27:10,919
your belief and then you'll you'll

764
00:27:14,990 --> 00:27:13,140
assimilate it into your knowledge

765
00:27:17,029 --> 00:27:15,000
um and that's really important then for

766
00:27:19,310 --> 00:27:17,039
coming up with a more well-rounded less

767
00:27:20,870 --> 00:27:19,320
myopic kind of world view if you're

768
00:27:23,390 --> 00:27:20,880
constantly doing that you're constantly

769
00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:23,400
kind of accepting you know information

770
00:27:27,830 --> 00:27:25,500
from lots of different sources and then

771
00:27:29,769 --> 00:27:27,840
forming a more rational worldview

772
00:27:32,690 --> 00:27:29,779
because of that so you know for me

773
00:27:35,390 --> 00:27:32,700
curiosity is

774
00:27:37,310 --> 00:27:35,400
um in general for most people is like a

775
00:27:38,690 --> 00:27:37,320
skill that we really should cherish and

776
00:27:41,269 --> 00:27:38,700
cultivate

777
00:27:43,669 --> 00:27:41,279
um now if it's kind of leading you

778
00:27:46,070 --> 00:27:43,679
you know Australia leading you to pursue

779
00:27:48,890 --> 00:27:46,080
to feel like a desperation to know so

780
00:27:50,990 --> 00:27:48,900
much it's actually like um becoming

781
00:27:52,549 --> 00:27:51,000
overwhelming

782
00:27:54,590 --> 00:27:52,559
um I haven't really come across any

783
00:27:56,630 --> 00:27:54,600
research that tells you how to deal with

784
00:27:58,730 --> 00:27:56,640
that but I just wonder if maybe there

785
00:28:01,370 --> 00:27:58,740
it's almost possible to kind of

786
00:28:03,830 --> 00:28:01,380
just focus your curiosity a bit like

787
00:28:06,769 --> 00:28:03,840
pick maybe out of all of the things that

788
00:28:09,950 --> 00:28:06,779
are fascinating you maybe you know like

789
00:28:12,890 --> 00:28:09,960
pick some to focus on at the present and

790
00:28:14,330 --> 00:28:12,900
maybe put some to one side

791
00:28:16,370 --> 00:28:14,340
um while thinking that you know you

792
00:28:19,130 --> 00:28:16,380
could certainly like pursue them in the

793
00:28:20,870 --> 00:28:19,140
future but just kind of making sure that

794
00:28:23,210 --> 00:28:20,880
you're more

795
00:28:26,149 --> 00:28:23,220
um yeah more focused more concentrated

796
00:28:27,890 --> 00:28:26,159
in kind of what you're pursuing I don't

797
00:28:29,630 --> 00:28:27,900
know if that you know speaks to you

798
00:28:31,490 --> 00:28:29,640
personally but that's how I would kind

799
00:28:33,230 --> 00:28:31,500
of deal with it it's like you might want

800
00:28:35,210 --> 00:28:33,240
to know kind of everything

801
00:28:36,769 --> 00:28:35,220
um yeah like you want to travel to every

802
00:28:38,630 --> 00:28:36,779
country in the world but you have to

803
00:28:40,610 --> 00:28:38,640
create a list of priorities for like

804
00:28:42,590 --> 00:28:40,620
places to go burst and create that kind

805
00:28:44,330 --> 00:28:42,600
of itinerary of where you're going to go

806
00:28:46,310 --> 00:28:44,340
and like how you're going to get there

807
00:28:47,870 --> 00:28:46,320
I'll tell you something personal I don't

808
00:28:49,850 --> 00:28:47,880
think I've said this aloud to anyone

809
00:28:51,649 --> 00:28:49,860
outside of here there's a sentence that

810
00:28:53,210 --> 00:28:51,659
drives me I want to learn every Theory

811
00:28:54,890 --> 00:28:53,220
that's ever been constructed so I had

812
00:28:56,570 --> 00:28:54,900
that in me for a little while then I saw

813
00:28:58,610 --> 00:28:56,580
that Feynman on his board Richard

814
00:29:00,890 --> 00:28:58,620
Feynman on his Blackboard before he died

815
00:29:02,810 --> 00:29:00,900
it had some equations but then scrawled

816
00:29:04,669 --> 00:29:02,820
in the corner it said

817
00:29:05,810 --> 00:29:04,679
learn to solve every problem that's ever

818
00:29:08,029 --> 00:29:05,820
been solved and I was like that's

819
00:29:10,250 --> 00:29:08,039
interesting but that's more practical

820
00:29:12,470 --> 00:29:10,260
than for I don't like to solve problems

821
00:29:14,750 --> 00:29:12,480
that are useful I like to know theories

822
00:29:16,250 --> 00:29:14,760
so I'm much more in the air he was on

823
00:29:18,169 --> 00:29:16,260
the ground I mean that's a great example

824
00:29:20,389 --> 00:29:18,179
because I think like Feynman was you

825
00:29:22,730 --> 00:29:20,399
know like one of the most famously

826
00:29:24,110 --> 00:29:22,740
curious people that have has been

827
00:29:25,610 --> 00:29:24,120
written about you know you see it in the

828
00:29:28,250 --> 00:29:25,620
insult biography you see another

829
00:29:30,470 --> 00:29:28,260
scientist descriptions of his behavior

830
00:29:33,529 --> 00:29:30,480
and you know Fineman had definitely had

831
00:29:36,049 --> 00:29:33,539
like his flaws like um but actually I

832
00:29:37,970 --> 00:29:36,059
think in terms of his kind of academic

833
00:29:39,409 --> 00:29:37,980
pursuit of knowledge that Curiosity

834
00:29:42,169 --> 00:29:39,419
really did get him

835
00:29:43,970 --> 00:29:42,179
really you know like so far and it was

836
00:29:46,070 --> 00:29:43,980
actually just like a kind of curiosity

837
00:29:47,750 --> 00:29:46,080
over the way plates were spinning in the

838
00:29:49,730 --> 00:29:47,760
cafeteria they eventually came up

839
00:29:52,630 --> 00:29:49,740
allowed him to come up with his theory

840
00:29:56,210 --> 00:29:52,640
about them uh what was it quantum

841
00:29:59,570 --> 00:29:56,220
yeah exactly but um then want him the

842
00:30:01,730 --> 00:29:59,580
Nobel Prize so he you know like it does

843
00:30:03,350 --> 00:30:01,740
show you what curiosity can achieve but

844
00:30:06,049 --> 00:30:03,360
again I think he

845
00:30:09,529 --> 00:30:06,059
he was super curious but I think he was

846
00:30:11,810 --> 00:30:09,539
kind of he kept it in balance and he was

847
00:30:14,269 --> 00:30:11,820
like new kind of when to focus on one

848
00:30:16,130 --> 00:30:14,279
particular project when to kind of allow

849
00:30:18,889 --> 00:30:16,140
his curiosity to kind of go elsewhere

850
00:30:20,810 --> 00:30:18,899
temporarily so you know that was I think

851
00:30:23,810 --> 00:30:20,820
he's a good model to Polo in that kind

852
00:30:25,090 --> 00:30:23,820
of sense as a writer how many ideas for

853
00:30:27,529 --> 00:30:25,100
books do you have

854
00:30:29,990 --> 00:30:27,539
interesting yeah so I mean I'm working

855
00:30:31,730 --> 00:30:30,000
on my third book no but how many ideas

856
00:30:34,130 --> 00:30:31,740
do you have like on the back burner of

857
00:30:36,529 --> 00:30:34,140
okay project one project two well I've

858
00:30:38,870 --> 00:30:36,539
got it up a couple of ideas kind of you

859
00:30:39,710 --> 00:30:38,880
know they're very vague notes at the

860
00:30:41,330 --> 00:30:39,720
moment

861
00:30:43,010 --> 00:30:41,340
um but I just can't say for certain

862
00:30:44,690 --> 00:30:43,020
whether I would ever pursued them

863
00:30:47,029 --> 00:30:44,700
because

864
00:30:48,950 --> 00:30:47,039
yeah like it's always good to have that

865
00:30:50,990 --> 00:30:48,960
kind of stuff on the back burner that's

866
00:30:52,789 --> 00:30:51,000
interesting you but I think also like I

867
00:30:54,889 --> 00:30:52,799
have to be realistic in what I can

868
00:30:57,289 --> 00:30:54,899
achieve in the amount of time that I

869
00:30:59,269 --> 00:30:57,299
have and also you know I don't know by

870
00:31:01,250 --> 00:30:59,279
the time I've you know between now and

871
00:31:02,690 --> 00:31:01,260
when I've finished my next book someone

872
00:31:04,430 --> 00:31:02,700
else might have already written

873
00:31:06,230 --> 00:31:04,440
something great on one of those topics

874
00:31:08,930 --> 00:31:06,240
and then I don't want to just kind of

875
00:31:11,690 --> 00:31:08,940
rehash what someone else is is writing

876
00:31:13,610 --> 00:31:11,700
so yeah I have a few I'd say maybe I've

877
00:31:15,350 --> 00:31:13,620
got yeah like the one I'm working on

878
00:31:17,330 --> 00:31:15,360
that's been commissioned and then

879
00:31:20,210 --> 00:31:17,340
another couple maybe three but I'm kind

880
00:31:22,370 --> 00:31:20,220
of modeling but I'm mulling over but um

881
00:31:24,230 --> 00:31:22,380
you know they may never come off and I

882
00:31:26,210 --> 00:31:24,240
might you know in the meantime I might

883
00:31:28,130 --> 00:31:26,220
just come up with another idea that just

884
00:31:30,769 --> 00:31:28,140
like really grabs my attention that I

885
00:31:33,110 --> 00:31:30,779
have to write so yeah that's how I work

886
00:31:34,310 --> 00:31:33,120
really you know having lots of ideas

887
00:31:36,830 --> 00:31:34,320
kind of

888
00:31:38,510 --> 00:31:36,840
in the background like uh that I'm

889
00:31:39,950 --> 00:31:38,520
mulling over kind of subconsciously and

890
00:31:42,470 --> 00:31:39,960
consciously but they're not really

891
00:31:44,029 --> 00:31:42,480
making a definite decision until you

892
00:31:45,590 --> 00:31:44,039
know something really grabs my attention

893
00:31:47,090 --> 00:31:45,600
and kind of helps it to all fall into

894
00:31:49,010 --> 00:31:47,100
place and it makes me think actually

895
00:31:52,190 --> 00:31:49,020
this is the one this is what I want to

896
00:31:53,990 --> 00:31:52,200
pursue next I'm super curious now how is

897
00:31:56,330 --> 00:31:54,000
it that you come up with the ideas for

898
00:31:58,789 --> 00:31:56,340
your books is it that you're walking

899
00:32:01,430 --> 00:31:58,799
around and one idea strikes you does it

900
00:32:04,190 --> 00:32:01,440
develop over time generally or is it

901
00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:04,200
like the seed is implanted at once are

902
00:32:08,029 --> 00:32:06,600
you trying to work something out in the

903
00:32:09,289 --> 00:32:08,039
book like you have an idea you're not

904
00:32:11,690 --> 00:32:09,299
sure if it's true so you're going to

905
00:32:13,250 --> 00:32:11,700
write about it and find out did you read

906
00:32:15,049 --> 00:32:13,260
some fact and you're like oh that's

907
00:32:17,389 --> 00:32:15,059
interesting let me explore how does it

908
00:32:18,830 --> 00:32:17,399
work well yeah I mean so say with the

909
00:32:20,269 --> 00:32:18,840
intelligence trap

910
00:32:21,710 --> 00:32:20,279
um you know I had this fascination with

911
00:32:23,450 --> 00:32:21,720
intelligence

912
00:32:25,669 --> 00:32:23,460
um you know that then kind of grew as I

913
00:32:27,950 --> 00:32:25,679
became a science journalist and I kind

914
00:32:30,590 --> 00:32:27,960
of was seeing these people you know

915
00:32:32,750 --> 00:32:30,600
where they're kind of academic

916
00:32:35,029 --> 00:32:32,760
credentials didn't seem to match kind of

917
00:32:36,649 --> 00:32:35,039
their behavior you know enough parts of

918
00:32:38,330 --> 00:32:36,659
their life or their expertise in one

919
00:32:40,130 --> 00:32:38,340
field didn't seem to translate to others

920
00:32:42,649 --> 00:32:40,140
so you know like I had those examples

921
00:32:44,690 --> 00:32:42,659
you know it's a writer who specialized

922
00:32:46,730 --> 00:32:44,700
in Psychology I'd kind of been keeping

923
00:32:47,810 --> 00:32:46,740
on top of the research with that

924
00:32:49,850 --> 00:32:47,820
um but you know it's not like

925
00:32:52,010 --> 00:32:49,860
immediately just

926
00:32:53,990 --> 00:32:52,020
as soon as I came across one piece of

927
00:32:55,610 --> 00:32:54,000
research like it it suddenly I thought

928
00:32:57,889 --> 00:32:55,620
that has to be a book it was much more

929
00:33:01,190 --> 00:32:57,899
of a prolonged process where I kept on

930
00:33:03,889 --> 00:33:01,200
coming across new papers keeping note of

931
00:33:05,930 --> 00:33:03,899
them and then eventually it just kind of

932
00:33:08,090 --> 00:33:05,940
coalesced and that I I guess it is

933
00:33:10,970 --> 00:33:08,100
almost like you know the way Cloud spawn

934
00:33:14,450 --> 00:33:10,980
in a way it's like I felt like there was

935
00:33:16,909 --> 00:33:14,460
just around this new uh nucleus it was

936
00:33:19,549 --> 00:33:16,919
like suddenly this idea started to

937
00:33:21,409 --> 00:33:19,559
emerge and take shape and then you know

938
00:33:23,210 --> 00:33:21,419
it got to this stage where I felt like

939
00:33:24,049 --> 00:33:23,220
well I can write a proposal but this

940
00:33:26,509 --> 00:33:24,059
book

941
00:33:28,909 --> 00:33:26,519
test out for myself but there's the kind

942
00:33:30,350 --> 00:33:28,919
of correct narrative Arc and then you

943
00:33:32,090 --> 00:33:30,360
know once that was done I was pretty

944
00:33:33,710 --> 00:33:32,100
certain that that was something you know

945
00:33:35,570 --> 00:33:33,720
I really wanted to devote like a couple

946
00:33:37,250 --> 00:33:35,580
of years to write

947
00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:37,260
um and it was exactly the same with the

948
00:33:40,970 --> 00:33:39,120
expectation effect of my second book

949
00:33:43,490 --> 00:33:40,980
which but I've been looking into things

950
00:33:45,049 --> 00:33:43,500
like the placebo effect you know since I

951
00:33:47,330 --> 00:33:45,059
became a science journalist like more

952
00:33:48,110 --> 00:33:47,340
than 10 years ago

953
00:33:49,490 --> 00:33:48,120
um

954
00:33:51,350 --> 00:33:49,500
and then there was a bit of a kind of

955
00:33:52,970 --> 00:33:51,360
personal inspiration like an event in my

956
00:33:55,669 --> 00:33:52,980
life where I kind of experienced an

957
00:33:56,570 --> 00:33:55,679
expectation effect for myself

958
00:33:58,850 --> 00:33:56,580
um

959
00:34:01,250 --> 00:33:58,860
but then again it was just like

960
00:34:03,769 --> 00:34:01,260
collecting papers and then suddenly like

961
00:34:05,930 --> 00:34:03,779
a few years later it just I noticed that

962
00:34:07,909 --> 00:34:05,940
actually there was you know already like

963
00:34:10,070 --> 00:34:07,919
a structure had kind of formed it just

964
00:34:12,589 --> 00:34:10,080
kind of occurred to me that you know

965
00:34:14,930 --> 00:34:12,599
these were how I it was like this was

966
00:34:17,089 --> 00:34:14,940
how I could arrange the chapters this

967
00:34:19,490 --> 00:34:17,099
was the story that I felt I could tell

968
00:34:20,930 --> 00:34:19,500
and then I looked into the research you

969
00:34:23,510 --> 00:34:20,940
know to check that it stood up and

970
00:34:26,329 --> 00:34:23,520
actually the more I researched the more

971
00:34:27,589 --> 00:34:26,339
it made sense and you know like I was

972
00:34:30,589 --> 00:34:27,599
finding all these fascinating things

973
00:34:33,050 --> 00:34:30,599
that actually just added to this um

974
00:34:35,210 --> 00:34:33,060
argument I I wanted to make you know

975
00:34:36,950 --> 00:34:35,220
pieces of research I hadn't known about

976
00:34:39,470 --> 00:34:36,960
previously and like stuff I just found

977
00:34:42,169 --> 00:34:39,480
like totally fascinating so yeah that

978
00:34:43,970 --> 00:34:42,179
was how that emerged very similar to the

979
00:34:45,710 --> 00:34:43,980
first one it's like a kind of it

980
00:34:47,750 --> 00:34:45,720
coalesces it takes shape and then

981
00:34:49,669 --> 00:34:47,760
suddenly you think yeah this is a story

982
00:34:52,550 --> 00:34:49,679
that deserves to be a book rather than

983
00:34:54,649 --> 00:34:52,560
like a feature article in a magazine

984
00:34:57,349 --> 00:34:54,659
and when it's coalescing are you making

985
00:34:59,210 --> 00:34:57,359
notes in Google Docs or notion or is it

986
00:35:00,829 --> 00:34:59,220
written on a piece of paper I know I'm

987
00:35:02,410 --> 00:35:00,839
getting in the weeds but I'm I'm an in

988
00:35:04,910 --> 00:35:02,420
the weeds person I'm a details person

989
00:35:06,890 --> 00:35:04,920
yeah no I mean it's in a Word document

990
00:35:09,170 --> 00:35:06,900
so you know I just have like Word

991
00:35:11,329 --> 00:35:09,180
documents that are like you know tens of

992
00:35:14,210 --> 00:35:11,339
pages long with like all kinds of ideas

993
00:35:16,670 --> 00:35:14,220
for like mostly just for like

994
00:35:18,290 --> 00:35:16,680
just noting down pieces of research that

995
00:35:21,050 --> 00:35:18,300
interests me and I'll kind of categorize

996
00:35:22,790 --> 00:35:21,060
it um you know and then I might Plumb

997
00:35:25,250 --> 00:35:22,800
that when I want to come up with like a

998
00:35:26,870 --> 00:35:25,260
an article to pitch to a magazine or if

999
00:35:28,849 --> 00:35:26,880
an editor comes to me and they say like

1000
00:35:30,530 --> 00:35:28,859
could you write a piece about you know

1001
00:35:33,109 --> 00:35:30,540
conspiracy theories or whatever and

1002
00:35:34,970 --> 00:35:33,119
that'll have like these notes that I can

1003
00:35:36,890 --> 00:35:34,980
go back to that just kind of suggest to

1004
00:35:38,750 --> 00:35:36,900
me kind of what you know what I can say

1005
00:35:40,430 --> 00:35:38,760
that's new and interesting

1006
00:35:42,410 --> 00:35:40,440
um see it's very much like that and the

1007
00:35:45,170 --> 00:35:42,420
books kind of just emerge from that kind

1008
00:35:47,630 --> 00:35:45,180
of long list of papers it's you know not

1009
00:35:49,730 --> 00:35:47,640
very organized um like it's kind of

1010
00:35:52,130 --> 00:35:49,740
split into basic categories but it's not

1011
00:35:54,109 --> 00:35:52,140
like I'm being really strategic I think

1012
00:35:57,950 --> 00:35:54,119
that is a case of me allowing my

1013
00:35:59,690 --> 00:35:57,960
curiosity just to kind of to flow and

1014
00:36:01,190 --> 00:35:59,700
just like noting these things down just

1015
00:36:03,530 --> 00:36:01,200
because I'm scared of like forgetting

1016
00:36:06,290 --> 00:36:03,540
and losing them essentially

1017
00:36:08,990 --> 00:36:06,300
how do you deal with this issue of for

1018
00:36:11,270 --> 00:36:09,000
myself when I'm writing and I'm writing

1019
00:36:12,970 --> 00:36:11,280
books without a publisher it's just tree

1020
00:36:15,470 --> 00:36:12,980
disease it's better to say it like that

1021
00:36:17,150 --> 00:36:15,480
mainly my impetus is because I don't

1022
00:36:18,650 --> 00:36:17,160
understand some subject so let me write

1023
00:36:20,630 --> 00:36:18,660
about it for instance paradoxes I'm

1024
00:36:22,430 --> 00:36:20,640
writing a book on logical paradoxes or

1025
00:36:24,170 --> 00:36:22,440
interpretations of quantum mechanics or

1026
00:36:25,010 --> 00:36:24,180
theories of every like a compendium of

1027
00:36:27,530 --> 00:36:25,020
different theories of everything

1028
00:36:29,630 --> 00:36:27,540
actually anyway as soon as I make an

1029
00:36:31,670 --> 00:36:29,640
opinion or state of fact quote unquote I

1030
00:36:33,230 --> 00:36:31,680
can find flaws with it and there are

1031
00:36:34,550 --> 00:36:33,240
people who have some alternate opinion

1032
00:36:36,470 --> 00:36:34,560
so then I research them like that's

1033
00:36:38,450 --> 00:36:36,480
actually fairly convincing okay let me

1034
00:36:40,310 --> 00:36:38,460
research what the opponent says oh

1035
00:36:41,990 --> 00:36:40,320
that's interesting and it goes back and

1036
00:36:43,849 --> 00:36:42,000
forth to the point where it's bottomless

1037
00:36:47,089 --> 00:36:43,859
at least for myself and then I get to

1038
00:36:49,250 --> 00:36:47,099
questions of what is and who am I the

1039
00:36:51,230 --> 00:36:49,260
point is like I at least for myself when

1040
00:36:53,450 --> 00:36:51,240
trying to put my stake down is something

1041
00:36:55,550 --> 00:36:53,460
extremely solid I find that it's sand

1042
00:36:57,230 --> 00:36:55,560
and I constantly I'm putting it in

1043
00:36:59,329 --> 00:36:57,240
something else and investigating is

1044
00:37:01,130 --> 00:36:59,339
seeing okay that's water oh shoot okay

1045
00:37:03,050 --> 00:37:01,140
this this I think is Rock no it's

1046
00:37:04,190 --> 00:37:03,060
Mercury and so on how do you deal with

1047
00:37:06,050 --> 00:37:04,200
that how do you know when you're

1048
00:37:07,970 --> 00:37:06,060
supposed to stop and just put your foot

1049
00:37:10,069 --> 00:37:07,980
down and say okay this is as good as I

1050
00:37:11,270 --> 00:37:10,079
can get it yeah I mean that is really

1051
00:37:12,710 --> 00:37:11,280
tough

1052
00:37:14,870 --> 00:37:12,720
um especially because science is

1053
00:37:17,089 --> 00:37:14,880
constantly evolving and you know there's

1054
00:37:19,550 --> 00:37:17,099
always the fear that like you know

1055
00:37:21,109 --> 00:37:19,560
between having kind of signed off the

1056
00:37:23,630 --> 00:37:21,119
proofs and the book being published

1057
00:37:25,730 --> 00:37:23,640
there's some big new study will come you

1058
00:37:27,650 --> 00:37:25,740
know they might kind of prove the thesis

1059
00:37:29,390 --> 00:37:27,660
but provide that kind of clinching

1060
00:37:31,490 --> 00:37:29,400
evidence that you wish you could have

1061
00:37:35,510 --> 00:37:31,500
included or that will contradict some

1062
00:37:38,210 --> 00:37:35,520
parts and like you know I'm always aware

1063
00:37:40,069 --> 00:37:38,220
of that I think and you know even within

1064
00:37:42,589 --> 00:37:40,079
the science sometimes you get research

1065
00:37:44,569 --> 00:37:42,599
that is contradictory and that's just a

1066
00:37:47,030 --> 00:37:44,579
healthy part of science

1067
00:37:49,310 --> 00:37:47,040
um you know when I'm writing my books I

1068
00:37:51,530 --> 00:37:49,320
really try to kind of acknowledge the

1069
00:37:53,270 --> 00:37:51,540
those kinds of nuances

1070
00:37:56,210 --> 00:37:53,280
um but I'm really trying to look at like

1071
00:37:58,430 --> 00:37:56,220
whether there's a bully a body of

1072
00:37:59,990 --> 00:37:58,440
evidence that kind of from lots of

1073
00:38:01,550 --> 00:38:00,000
different sources you know lots of

1074
00:38:03,650 --> 00:38:01,560
different types of studies it could be

1075
00:38:06,170 --> 00:38:03,660
you know medicine like longitudinal

1076
00:38:08,630 --> 00:38:06,180
studies it could be laboratory studies

1077
00:38:11,450 --> 00:38:08,640
it could be like real world kind of um

1078
00:38:13,730 --> 00:38:11,460
interventions you know all of that if

1079
00:38:15,710 --> 00:38:13,740
you have enough of those that all point

1080
00:38:17,690 --> 00:38:15,720
in the same direction and are showing

1081
00:38:19,670 --> 00:38:17,700
the same phenomenon like with the

1082
00:38:21,650 --> 00:38:19,680
expectation effect you know if you have

1083
00:38:24,050 --> 00:38:21,660
all of these um pieces of evidence

1084
00:38:26,810 --> 00:38:24,060
showing that kind of our expectations

1085
00:38:28,849 --> 00:38:26,820
can shape our Behavior perception and

1086
00:38:29,990 --> 00:38:28,859
Physiology

1087
00:38:32,089 --> 00:38:30,000
um in profound ways to create

1088
00:38:33,710 --> 00:38:32,099
self-fulfilling prophecies then that's

1089
00:38:36,710 --> 00:38:33,720
what I feel I'm contributing you know

1090
00:38:39,530 --> 00:38:36,720
I'm somewhere Rising synthesizing that

1091
00:38:42,349 --> 00:38:39,540
body of literature and I see it as you

1092
00:38:44,750 --> 00:38:42,359
know it's a snapshot in time essentially

1093
00:38:46,370 --> 00:38:44,760
like I have to accept that that book

1094
00:38:49,490 --> 00:38:46,380
will be as correct as I can possibly

1095
00:38:51,109 --> 00:38:49,500
make it at the time of publication but I

1096
00:38:53,569 --> 00:38:51,119
can never guarantee that there won't be

1097
00:38:55,069 --> 00:38:53,579
other you know cool new studies that

1098
00:38:56,810 --> 00:38:55,079
might support a contradictor in the

1099
00:38:58,450 --> 00:38:56,820
future and I have to kind of make peace

1100
00:39:01,730 --> 00:38:58,460
with that fact that it's a

1101
00:39:03,890 --> 00:39:01,740
representation of my thinking and as far

1102
00:39:06,230 --> 00:39:03,900
as I could represent it the state of the

1103
00:39:07,970 --> 00:39:06,240
science at that time that I was writing

1104
00:39:10,550 --> 00:39:07,980
the book and I think that's how readers

1105
00:39:11,810 --> 00:39:10,560
take it as well can you explain the

1106
00:39:13,310 --> 00:39:11,820
different types of studies you've just

1107
00:39:15,349 --> 00:39:13,320
outlined longitudinal studies

1108
00:39:16,609 --> 00:39:15,359
Interventional studies and what other

1109
00:39:17,930 --> 00:39:16,619
types of studies are there and what's

1110
00:39:20,329 --> 00:39:17,940
like the difference between compare and

1111
00:39:21,890 --> 00:39:20,339
contrast if you don't mind right sure so

1112
00:39:23,450 --> 00:39:21,900
I mean I think you know like in

1113
00:39:26,510 --> 00:39:23,460
Psychology and Medicine you can have

1114
00:39:28,609 --> 00:39:26,520
like a you know laboratory based study

1115
00:39:30,710 --> 00:39:28,619
which is normally in the short term and

1116
00:39:33,410 --> 00:39:30,720
you might have someone come in you know

1117
00:39:36,050 --> 00:39:33,420
for psychology say well you're

1118
00:39:38,210 --> 00:39:36,060
you might test their mindset so looking

1119
00:39:40,490 --> 00:39:38,220
this is for the expectation effect like

1120
00:39:42,170 --> 00:39:40,500
looking at their beliefs on you know a

1121
00:39:44,030 --> 00:39:42,180
particular element of their health or

1122
00:39:46,030 --> 00:39:44,040
their Fitness or

1123
00:39:49,970 --> 00:39:46,040
um you know what they think about food

1124
00:39:52,190 --> 00:39:49,980
and then you might either you might then

1125
00:39:53,870 --> 00:39:52,200
kind of give them some kind of tests so

1126
00:39:56,150 --> 00:39:53,880
you might be measuring you know how the

1127
00:39:58,849 --> 00:39:56,160
what the hormonal response is to the

1128
00:40:00,970 --> 00:39:58,859
foods that they're eating and then you

1129
00:40:03,650 --> 00:40:00,980
kind of look for a correlation between

1130
00:40:05,690 --> 00:40:03,660
you know their beliefs and those

1131
00:40:07,849 --> 00:40:05,700
physiological outcomes so you know

1132
00:40:09,109 --> 00:40:07,859
standard kind of Laboratory test you

1133
00:40:12,170 --> 00:40:09,119
might also have a kind of intervention

1134
00:40:14,810 --> 00:40:12,180
within the laboratory so in that case

1135
00:40:17,030 --> 00:40:14,820
to kind of look at causality you might

1136
00:40:18,829 --> 00:40:17,040
rather than just measuring the mindset

1137
00:40:22,849 --> 00:40:18,839
she might actually try to change their

1138
00:40:24,589 --> 00:40:22,859
mindsets so you might try to uh change

1139
00:40:26,690 --> 00:40:24,599
the way they viewed their own kind of

1140
00:40:28,970 --> 00:40:26,700
health and ability to deal with exercise

1141
00:40:31,370 --> 00:40:28,980
and then you might measure how they

1142
00:40:34,730 --> 00:40:31,380
perform on the treadmill you know see if

1143
00:40:37,790 --> 00:40:34,740
if you tell them that they actually have

1144
00:40:40,069 --> 00:40:37,800
um good genes for doing exercise that's

1145
00:40:42,349 --> 00:40:40,079
going to enhance their endurance do they

1146
00:40:44,510 --> 00:40:42,359
then perform better in a test of

1147
00:40:46,250 --> 00:40:44,520
Endurance on the treadmill and does that

1148
00:40:48,170 --> 00:40:46,260
change things like their physiology like

1149
00:40:50,690 --> 00:40:48,180
the gas exchange within their lungs you

1150
00:40:53,270 --> 00:40:50,700
know that kind of thing if you do find

1151
00:40:56,089 --> 00:40:53,280
that those had had their mindsets

1152
00:40:58,130 --> 00:40:56,099
changed then also

1153
00:41:02,089 --> 00:40:58,140
um show differences in their physiology

1154
00:41:04,130 --> 00:41:02,099
well that's a suggestion of a um of a

1155
00:41:06,470 --> 00:41:04,140
causal effect essentially

1156
00:41:08,510 --> 00:41:06,480
um so quite a good piece of evidence but

1157
00:41:12,530 --> 00:41:08,520
the latter is a an Interventional study

1158
00:41:15,230 --> 00:41:12,540
yeah exactly and the former was a uh

1159
00:41:17,030 --> 00:41:15,240
well I guess a correlational study

1160
00:41:18,890 --> 00:41:17,040
um within the laboratory but then you

1161
00:41:20,450 --> 00:41:18,900
could also do these in kind of a real

1162
00:41:22,370 --> 00:41:20,460
life situation and I think that would be

1163
00:41:23,930 --> 00:41:22,380
much more convincing as if you could

1164
00:41:27,890 --> 00:41:23,940
kind of

1165
00:41:29,810 --> 00:41:27,900
mindsets over a period of a month for

1166
00:41:31,490 --> 00:41:29,820
example and then you measure differences

1167
00:41:33,829 --> 00:41:31,500
in that physiology you know do you see

1168
00:41:36,170 --> 00:41:33,839
the predicted effects you can also look

1169
00:41:39,050 --> 00:41:36,180
at longitudinal studies which are

1170
00:41:42,349 --> 00:41:39,060
correlational but uh they have some

1171
00:41:44,630 --> 00:41:42,359
advantages because they often track a

1172
00:41:46,430 --> 00:41:44,640
lot of data from a lot of people over a

1173
00:41:49,970 --> 00:41:46,440
long period of time so you might track

1174
00:41:51,230 --> 00:41:49,980
it over 10 years for 10 000 people and

1175
00:41:53,450 --> 00:41:51,240
you might have measured their beliefs

1176
00:41:55,609 --> 00:41:53,460
about you know that Fitness or stress at

1177
00:41:57,530 --> 00:41:55,619
one point and then you might look at

1178
00:41:59,870 --> 00:41:57,540
lots of different outcomes like their

1179
00:42:02,210 --> 00:41:59,880
behavior their BMI their risk of Death

1180
00:42:04,990 --> 00:42:02,220
at a later time point and you look for

1181
00:42:08,510 --> 00:42:05,000
correlations there and you try to um

1182
00:42:10,670 --> 00:42:08,520
to kind of control for the conflicting

1183
00:42:11,990 --> 00:42:10,680
compounding factors

1184
00:42:13,970 --> 00:42:12,000
um now again that that doesn't

1185
00:42:16,069 --> 00:42:13,980
necessarily prove causality and there

1186
00:42:17,390 --> 00:42:16,079
are issues with that but I think if you

1187
00:42:19,190 --> 00:42:17,400
have all these different types of

1188
00:42:21,650 --> 00:42:19,200
studies and they're all kind of showing

1189
00:42:25,190 --> 00:42:21,660
the predicted effects then like together

1190
00:42:26,930 --> 00:42:25,200
is like they're all you know they all

1191
00:42:28,790 --> 00:42:26,940
support the argument nothing that's what

1192
00:42:30,230 --> 00:42:28,800
I'm really looking for there any one

1193
00:42:32,150 --> 00:42:30,240
piece of evidence I think you can

1194
00:42:34,190 --> 00:42:32,160
there's going to be some flaws in the

1195
00:42:37,010 --> 00:42:34,200
way this study was conducted but I think

1196
00:42:39,230 --> 00:42:37,020
like if you start to find you know lots

1197
00:42:41,150 --> 00:42:39,240
of lots of data all pointing in the same

1198
00:42:42,829 --> 00:42:41,160
direction that makes me much more

1199
00:42:44,990 --> 00:42:42,839
confident that there's something solid

1200
00:42:46,730 --> 00:42:45,000
there that you're you're observing and

1201
00:42:48,710 --> 00:42:46,740
noting and that could be valuable in

1202
00:42:51,050 --> 00:42:48,720
applying what is the expectation effect

1203
00:42:53,030 --> 00:42:51,060
and what was the Catalyst you said there

1204
00:42:55,490 --> 00:42:53,040
is a personal Catalyst for the book

1205
00:42:57,589 --> 00:42:55,500
yeah so I mean the expectation effect is

1206
00:42:59,270 --> 00:42:57,599
decided that our mindsets which are

1207
00:43:02,150 --> 00:42:59,280
these kinds of collective beliefs that

1208
00:43:04,130 --> 00:43:02,160
we hold can create self-fulfilling

1209
00:43:07,069 --> 00:43:04,140
prophecies and that they can do so

1210
00:43:10,010 --> 00:43:07,079
through changes to perception changes to

1211
00:43:11,510 --> 00:43:10,020
behavior and changes to physiology so

1212
00:43:14,870 --> 00:43:11,520
actually all during things like the

1213
00:43:17,390 --> 00:43:14,880
hormonal response in your body or

1214
00:43:19,130 --> 00:43:17,400
you know your blood pressure the actions

1215
00:43:22,190 --> 00:43:19,140
of the gut

1216
00:43:24,170 --> 00:43:22,200
um your bodily movements when you're um

1217
00:43:25,970 --> 00:43:24,180
when you're exercising you know all of

1218
00:43:28,069 --> 00:43:25,980
those kinds of things

1219
00:43:29,690 --> 00:43:28,079
um and and you know like in the book I

1220
00:43:32,089 --> 00:43:29,700
kind of look at the ways that this can

1221
00:43:33,650 --> 00:43:32,099
our mindsets can influence our briefing

1222
00:43:35,329 --> 00:43:33,660
from you know the effects of a

1223
00:43:36,609 --> 00:43:35,339
particular drug

1224
00:43:38,870 --> 00:43:36,619
um in a hospital

1225
00:43:41,450 --> 00:43:38,880
to the

1226
00:43:43,490 --> 00:43:41,460
um outcomes of exercise like how you

1227
00:43:46,490 --> 00:43:43,500
experience the exercise how your body

1228
00:43:48,410 --> 00:43:46,500
responds to the exercise whether it you

1229
00:43:49,730 --> 00:43:48,420
know it's efficient or inefficient and

1230
00:43:53,329 --> 00:43:49,740
kind of

1231
00:43:56,030 --> 00:43:53,339
um performing in particular activity

1232
00:43:58,609 --> 00:43:56,040
um how we respond to food how we respond

1233
00:44:00,770 --> 00:43:58,619
to a new diet how we respond to sleep

1234
00:44:03,530 --> 00:44:00,780
loss even how long we live so I really

1235
00:44:05,329 --> 00:44:03,540
looked at you know kind of I think all

1236
00:44:07,490 --> 00:44:05,339
of the kind of key areas of our life

1237
00:44:09,109 --> 00:44:07,500
that we might be trying to improve with

1238
00:44:11,690 --> 00:44:09,119
changes in lifestyle and I'm basically

1239
00:44:14,210 --> 00:44:11,700
showing that changes in mindsets Are Not

1240
00:44:16,370 --> 00:44:14,220
Alone going to be this kind of secret

1241
00:44:18,410 --> 00:44:16,380
Panacea that's going to kind of create

1242
00:44:20,390 --> 00:44:18,420
Miracles you know I'm not claiming that

1243
00:44:22,609 --> 00:44:20,400
it can that you can change your life

1244
00:44:24,410 --> 00:44:22,619
just by changing your beliefs but often

1245
00:44:26,569 --> 00:44:24,420
the beliefs are an important component

1246
00:44:28,130 --> 00:44:26,579
and they can kind of take the breaks off

1247
00:44:30,109 --> 00:44:28,140
of our progress so that when you are

1248
00:44:32,690 --> 00:44:30,119
making all of those other beneficial

1249
00:44:35,150 --> 00:44:32,700
changes to your kind of exercise regime

1250
00:44:37,370 --> 00:44:35,160
or your diet or your sleep but actually

1251
00:44:39,109 --> 00:44:37,380
like making sure you're doing so with

1252
00:44:42,290 --> 00:44:39,119
the right mindsets can actually make it

1253
00:44:43,790 --> 00:44:42,300
a lot more effective and it can you know

1254
00:44:45,349 --> 00:44:43,800
kind of bring about all of these

1255
00:44:46,130 --> 00:44:45,359
positive outcomes

1256
00:44:48,109 --> 00:44:46,140
um

1257
00:44:51,770 --> 00:44:48,119
can you give an example before you move

1258
00:44:53,809 --> 00:44:51,780
on to the personal one yeah exactly so

1259
00:44:56,930 --> 00:44:53,819
um no I kind of hinted at this earlier

1260
00:44:59,750 --> 00:44:56,940
you know uh researchers at Stanford kind

1261
00:45:01,609 --> 00:44:59,760
of um wanted to see how people's beliefs

1262
00:45:04,190 --> 00:45:01,619
about their own Fitness would shape how

1263
00:45:06,770 --> 00:45:04,200
they responded to endurance exercise

1264
00:45:08,750 --> 00:45:06,780
um so they gave people a real uh genetic

1265
00:45:11,510 --> 00:45:08,760
test it looked at the crib one gene

1266
00:45:13,790 --> 00:45:11,520
which is associated with um kind of uh

1267
00:45:16,490 --> 00:45:13,800
cardiovascular fitness you know and

1268
00:45:18,530 --> 00:45:16,500
endurance if you have the kind of good

1269
00:45:20,089 --> 00:45:18,540
version of the gene like you find it a

1270
00:45:21,650 --> 00:45:20,099
bit easier and more comfortable to do

1271
00:45:23,870 --> 00:45:21,660
exercise things like your kind of

1272
00:45:25,309 --> 00:45:23,880
internal body temperature just stays in

1273
00:45:27,290 --> 00:45:25,319
the kind of comfortable range a bit

1274
00:45:29,210 --> 00:45:27,300
longer Gene you know like um yeah

1275
00:45:31,730 --> 00:45:29,220
exactly it's great great to have if you

1276
00:45:34,069 --> 00:45:31,740
have it I'm a glut and that's like my

1277
00:45:36,650 --> 00:45:34,079
advice is I just I can go to buffets and

1278
00:45:38,569 --> 00:45:36,660
just eat and eat meat so that's I hope I

1279
00:45:41,030 --> 00:45:38,579
have that Gene or if I don't I hope

1280
00:45:43,910 --> 00:45:41,040
crispr is making some progress because I

1281
00:45:45,470 --> 00:45:43,920
would like to engineer that into me

1282
00:45:46,730 --> 00:45:45,480
but here's the thing that you should

1283
00:45:48,650 --> 00:45:46,740
remember then

1284
00:45:51,050 --> 00:45:48,660
um because so they did the real genetic

1285
00:45:53,390 --> 00:45:51,060
test but they gave people false feedback

1286
00:45:55,490 --> 00:45:53,400
so they told some people you have the

1287
00:45:56,809 --> 00:45:55,500
good Gene good version of the jeans some

1288
00:45:58,849 --> 00:45:56,819
people were told they're the bad version

1289
00:46:01,069 --> 00:45:58,859
of the Gene and then they did their kind

1290
00:46:02,690 --> 00:46:01,079
of endurance exercise and what the

1291
00:46:05,089 --> 00:46:02,700
researchers found was that yeah like the

1292
00:46:08,329 --> 00:46:05,099
gene does have an effect but so did

1293
00:46:10,190 --> 00:46:08,339
people's expectations of uh whether they

1294
00:46:12,349 --> 00:46:10,200
had the gene so this this feedback was

1295
00:46:13,370 --> 00:46:12,359
sham feedback so some who had the good

1296
00:46:15,290 --> 00:46:13,380
version were told they have the bad

1297
00:46:18,050 --> 00:46:15,300
version vice versa and actually those

1298
00:46:19,970 --> 00:46:18,060
expectations independently affected how

1299
00:46:22,069 --> 00:46:19,980
people did the exercise

1300
00:46:23,930 --> 00:46:22,079
um and you know in some cases According

1301
00:46:26,450 --> 00:46:23,940
to some of the physiological measures

1302
00:46:29,270 --> 00:46:26,460
the expectations were actually more

1303
00:46:32,630 --> 00:46:29,280
important than the effects of the gene

1304
00:46:34,370 --> 00:46:32,640
itself so when they were looking at like

1305
00:46:36,170 --> 00:46:34,380
the efficiency of the lungs well that

1306
00:46:38,390 --> 00:46:36,180
depended more on the expectations that

1307
00:46:39,829 --> 00:46:38,400
you had the good Gene than whether you

1308
00:46:42,109 --> 00:46:39,839
actually had the good Gene that's

1309
00:46:45,829 --> 00:46:42,119
interesting speak to your um experience

1310
00:46:47,510 --> 00:46:45,839
of being like a rapacious full yeah they

1311
00:46:48,890 --> 00:46:47,520
did exactly the same experiment looking

1312
00:46:50,809 --> 00:46:48,900
at people's

1313
00:46:53,150 --> 00:46:50,819
um a gene that was associated with um

1314
00:46:55,550 --> 00:46:53,160
satiety so wherever people feel they

1315
00:46:57,650 --> 00:46:55,560
need to eat more to be full

1316
00:46:59,809 --> 00:46:57,660
um and again my fan but actually those

1317
00:47:01,250 --> 00:46:59,819
expectations did shape how much people

1318
00:47:03,530 --> 00:47:01,260
ate

1319
00:47:06,109 --> 00:47:03,540
um but also shaped like the response of

1320
00:47:08,089 --> 00:47:06,119
the uh the gut the hormonal response

1321
00:47:10,970 --> 00:47:08,099
there was one particular hormone that's

1322
00:47:12,950 --> 00:47:10,980
linked to satiety that was very closely

1323
00:47:14,870 --> 00:47:12,960
linked to the expectations of whether

1324
00:47:17,690 --> 00:47:14,880
they would be full or not thanks to this

1325
00:47:19,910 --> 00:47:17,700
Gene so you know again it's like it's

1326
00:47:22,130 --> 00:47:19,920
like I said just in be answered to your

1327
00:47:24,290 --> 00:47:22,140
previous question like I'm not claiming

1328
00:47:27,050 --> 00:47:24,300
that like our genes don't matter because

1329
00:47:28,670 --> 00:47:27,060
they did have an effect too but what you

1330
00:47:30,950 --> 00:47:28,680
can what you can see here is that

1331
00:47:33,849 --> 00:47:30,960
actually even if you have the bad Gene

1332
00:47:36,109 --> 00:47:33,859
you don't have to see it as being

1333
00:47:38,690 --> 00:47:36,119
deterministic in some way like you can

1334
00:47:40,550 --> 00:47:38,700
accept that actually your expectations

1335
00:47:42,050 --> 00:47:40,560
are also playing a role and then you can

1336
00:47:43,910 --> 00:47:42,060
look for ways to kind of change those

1337
00:47:46,490 --> 00:47:43,920
expectations and then that can be

1338
00:47:48,650 --> 00:47:46,500
beneficial to you

1339
00:47:51,410 --> 00:47:48,660
and now the personal bit

1340
00:47:53,329 --> 00:47:51,420
yeah so I mean this was you know I think

1341
00:47:55,550 --> 00:47:53,339
we all know what the placebo effect is

1342
00:47:59,089 --> 00:47:55,560
it's where you kind of take a sham drug

1343
00:48:00,890 --> 00:47:59,099
like a sugar pill and then you

1344
00:48:02,569 --> 00:48:00,900
you're told that it's the real thing and

1345
00:48:04,490 --> 00:48:02,579
then you know you experience kind of

1346
00:48:07,370 --> 00:48:04,500
pain relief or

1347
00:48:08,809 --> 00:48:07,380
um you know changing blood pressure due

1348
00:48:10,730 --> 00:48:08,819
purely to your beliefs and that's quite

1349
00:48:12,589 --> 00:48:10,740
well established

1350
00:48:15,230 --> 00:48:12,599
um but there's the suburb phenomenon

1351
00:48:16,849 --> 00:48:15,240
called the nosiba effect

1352
00:48:18,710 --> 00:48:16,859
um which is like the placebo effects

1353
00:48:22,250 --> 00:48:18,720
evil twin

1354
00:48:24,230 --> 00:48:22,260
um if you expect to become ill then

1355
00:48:26,630 --> 00:48:24,240
those beliefs can actually create

1356
00:48:29,270 --> 00:48:26,640
symptoms of sickness so they can do

1357
00:48:31,730 --> 00:48:29,280
things like Amplified

1358
00:48:33,170 --> 00:48:31,740
um the transmission of pain signals so

1359
00:48:36,230 --> 00:48:33,180
something that would be like a small

1360
00:48:37,670 --> 00:48:36,240
irritation suddenly becomes agonizing

1361
00:48:40,250 --> 00:48:37,680
um they can actually change things like

1362
00:48:42,470 --> 00:48:40,260
the vasculature of the brain so they can

1363
00:48:45,050 --> 00:48:42,480
create a migraine and it's actually you

1364
00:48:47,210 --> 00:48:45,060
know taking form in your brain it's

1365
00:48:48,530 --> 00:48:47,220
actually changing the way your brain is

1366
00:48:50,809 --> 00:48:48,540
responding

1367
00:48:53,210 --> 00:48:50,819
um and I experienced that and you know

1368
00:48:55,010 --> 00:48:53,220
Dino super effect has been really widely

1369
00:48:57,589 --> 00:48:55,020
studied in people's cider boats to

1370
00:48:59,329 --> 00:48:57,599
particular drugs so if you're told you

1371
00:49:01,490 --> 00:48:59,339
might experience a headache after taking

1372
00:49:03,349 --> 00:49:01,500
a pill people are much more likely to

1373
00:49:04,970 --> 00:49:03,359
experience that headache even if they're

1374
00:49:06,770 --> 00:49:04,980
taking a placebo pill and they're told

1375
00:49:08,450 --> 00:49:06,780
that Michael's a headache they get the

1376
00:49:10,550 --> 00:49:08,460
headache um

1377
00:49:12,530 --> 00:49:10,560
and I I've been going for a period of

1378
00:49:14,030 --> 00:49:12,540
depression in my life

1379
00:49:15,950 --> 00:49:14,040
um and I was taking these like very

1380
00:49:18,230 --> 00:49:15,960
standard antidepressant pills and my

1381
00:49:21,530 --> 00:49:18,240
doctor you know she was obliged to do

1382
00:49:22,970 --> 00:49:21,540
she told me that I might experience you

1383
00:49:25,250 --> 00:49:22,980
know headaches as a result of taking the

1384
00:49:27,290 --> 00:49:25,260
pills and I did and they were super

1385
00:49:28,970 --> 00:49:27,300
painful like I really found it difficult

1386
00:49:31,430 --> 00:49:28,980
to focus at work

1387
00:49:33,050 --> 00:49:31,440
um you know I thought it was like and it

1388
00:49:34,609 --> 00:49:33,060
did feel like such a sharp pain like you

1389
00:49:36,290 --> 00:49:34,619
know an ice pick was kind of going broke

1390
00:49:39,170 --> 00:49:36,300
the skull or something

1391
00:49:40,970 --> 00:49:39,180
um so pretty nasty but at the time I was

1392
00:49:42,410 --> 00:49:40,980
also kind of you know just by chance

1393
00:49:44,630 --> 00:49:42,420
looking into

1394
00:49:47,510 --> 00:49:44,640
the placebo effect and I came across

1395
00:49:49,250 --> 00:49:47,520
this research on the nosiba effect and

1396
00:49:50,870 --> 00:49:49,260
actually that knowledge of the nasiba

1397
00:49:53,329 --> 00:49:50,880
back tonight I checked the data for the

1398
00:49:54,829 --> 00:49:53,339
drug itself and I saw that actually a

1399
00:49:57,290 --> 00:49:54,839
lot of the side effects that people were

1400
00:49:58,910 --> 00:49:57,300
reporting were influenced by a nocebo

1401
00:50:00,950 --> 00:49:58,920
effect

1402
00:50:04,370 --> 00:50:00,960
um that knowledge actually then helped

1403
00:50:06,530 --> 00:50:04,380
to relieve the pain it just kind of

1404
00:50:08,930 --> 00:50:06,540
I just questioned like well is it

1405
00:50:10,910 --> 00:50:08,940
inevitable that I'm experiencing this

1406
00:50:12,710 --> 00:50:10,920
pain it certainly felt like it was you

1407
00:50:15,109 --> 00:50:12,720
know direct kind of

1408
00:50:16,849 --> 00:50:15,119
um physiological response to the drug

1409
00:50:18,710 --> 00:50:16,859
but you know it just made me think well

1410
00:50:20,809 --> 00:50:18,720
maybe it's just my expectations and

1411
00:50:23,329 --> 00:50:20,819
actually yeah just opening my mind up to

1412
00:50:25,130 --> 00:50:23,339
that possibility kind of it led me not

1413
00:50:27,470 --> 00:50:25,140
to catastrophize the pain and not to

1414
00:50:29,210 --> 00:50:27,480
feel so anxious about the pain and that

1415
00:50:32,870 --> 00:50:29,220
in turn then stopped me feeling the pain

1416
00:50:34,910 --> 00:50:32,880
itself and so you know after a day or so

1417
00:50:36,470 --> 00:50:34,920
I actually just didn't have any of the

1418
00:50:38,450 --> 00:50:36,480
headaches at all and I continued my

1419
00:50:40,609 --> 00:50:38,460
treatment and it you know it worked

1420
00:50:42,230 --> 00:50:40,619
remarkably well and if I hadn't learned

1421
00:50:43,609 --> 00:50:42,240
that I would have probably given up that

1422
00:50:46,370 --> 00:50:43,619
treatment it would have been a waste of

1423
00:50:47,809 --> 00:50:46,380
like you know perfectly good

1424
00:50:50,089 --> 00:50:47,819
um line of treatment that actually

1425
00:50:52,670 --> 00:50:50,099
proved successful so that experience

1426
00:50:56,390 --> 00:50:52,680
really told me that like expectation

1427
00:50:58,609 --> 00:50:56,400
effects are real that you know it's not

1428
00:51:01,490 --> 00:50:58,619
made up it's not imagined because that

1429
00:51:04,069 --> 00:51:01,500
pain to me was just as real as when I'd

1430
00:51:06,410 --> 00:51:04,079
ever had a migraine in the past and we

1431
00:51:08,030 --> 00:51:06,420
know that it's related to physiological

1432
00:51:09,410 --> 00:51:08,040
changes in the brain and so I just

1433
00:51:11,270 --> 00:51:09,420
started thinking well like how else

1434
00:51:13,430 --> 00:51:11,280
could our expectations shape our

1435
00:51:15,049 --> 00:51:13,440
experience like what else is it doing to

1436
00:51:17,750 --> 00:51:15,059
us and how could we use this knowledge

1437
00:51:20,089 --> 00:51:17,760
to our advantage and so that's when I

1438
00:51:22,250 --> 00:51:20,099
collected all of those papers you know

1439
00:51:24,829 --> 00:51:22,260
years later I realized that I had enough

1440
00:51:26,990 --> 00:51:24,839
and it took the shape of a book that I

1441
00:51:29,270 --> 00:51:27,000
really wanted to write so so many

1442
00:51:32,569 --> 00:51:29,280
questions I have man let me prioritize

1443
00:51:35,030 --> 00:51:32,579
right how do you know if what you

1444
00:51:36,829 --> 00:51:35,040
experienced was the nocebo effect or you

1445
00:51:38,510 --> 00:51:36,839
just had the actual effect and what you

1446
00:51:40,849 --> 00:51:38,520
learned afterwards was a positive

1447
00:51:42,290 --> 00:51:40,859
placebo effect that neutralized

1448
00:51:46,130 --> 00:51:42,300
perfect

1449
00:51:46,910 --> 00:51:46,140
I mean that is a possibility I suppose

1450
00:51:48,710 --> 00:51:46,920
um

1451
00:51:50,450 --> 00:51:48,720
I mean in this case I think it's

1452
00:51:52,549 --> 00:51:50,460
unlikely because I'd actually when I was

1453
00:51:54,170 --> 00:51:52,559
looking into these um

1454
00:51:55,849 --> 00:51:54,180
you know my particular brand of

1455
00:51:58,069 --> 00:51:55,859
antidepressant pills

1456
00:52:00,530 --> 00:51:58,079
um you know like the vast majority of

1457
00:52:02,750 --> 00:52:00,540
people experiencing headaches

1458
00:52:05,089 --> 00:52:02,760
um we're experiencing it because of the

1459
00:52:07,190 --> 00:52:05,099
expectation the difference between those

1460
00:52:09,109 --> 00:52:07,200
in the placebo arm of the clinical

1461
00:52:11,630 --> 00:52:09,119
trials of this drug and the people

1462
00:52:14,329 --> 00:52:11,640
actually taking the drug was you know

1463
00:52:16,609 --> 00:52:14,339
tiny I'm not even sure if it was

1464
00:52:18,290 --> 00:52:16,619
Clinic please you know like I'm not

1465
00:52:20,870 --> 00:52:18,300
clinically significant statistically

1466
00:52:24,470 --> 00:52:20,880
significant so it really was very likely

1467
00:52:27,530 --> 00:52:24,480
that I was experiencing a nocebo effect

1468
00:52:29,990 --> 00:52:27,540
this podcast is a part of a series

1469
00:52:32,569 --> 00:52:30,000
that's extremely practical so we're

1470
00:52:34,549 --> 00:52:32,579
gonna talk about steps that people can

1471
00:52:36,410 --> 00:52:34,559
take to utilize the expectation effect

1472
00:52:37,490 --> 00:52:36,420
in their life and then also later on

1473
00:52:39,890 --> 00:52:37,500
we're going to talk about learning

1474
00:52:41,990 --> 00:52:39,900
because in particular learning extremely

1475
00:52:43,370 --> 00:52:42,000
confounding graduate level math and

1476
00:52:45,109 --> 00:52:43,380
physics because many people on this

1477
00:52:46,790 --> 00:52:45,119
channel want to know how can I utilize

1478
00:52:48,349 --> 00:52:46,800
some of the lessons from the

1479
00:52:50,990 --> 00:52:48,359
intelligence trap and or the

1480
00:52:53,450 --> 00:52:51,000
expectations effect to accelerate by

1481
00:52:56,329 --> 00:52:53,460
learning in this case new knowledge

1482
00:52:59,450 --> 00:52:56,339
nullified the nosi buffet now how does

1483
00:53:01,609 --> 00:52:59,460
one have new knowledge that gives a

1484
00:53:02,930 --> 00:53:01,619
placebo effect because I can imagine if

1485
00:53:04,549 --> 00:53:02,940
someone was to tell you by the way the

1486
00:53:07,069 --> 00:53:04,559
positive effects you're feeling that's

1487
00:53:08,809 --> 00:53:07,079
just in your head that may reduce it

1488
00:53:10,609 --> 00:53:08,819
rather than amplify it how do you

1489
00:53:12,950 --> 00:53:10,619
consciously employ some strategy to

1490
00:53:14,930 --> 00:53:12,960
utilize the placebo effect yeah and I

1491
00:53:17,450 --> 00:53:14,940
mean this has been the big toilet that

1492
00:53:20,150 --> 00:53:17,460
had like really put a barrier on kind of

1493
00:53:22,069 --> 00:53:20,160
placebo research for decades

1494
00:53:23,809 --> 00:53:22,079
um but actually there's lots of exciting

1495
00:53:25,790 --> 00:53:23,819
new research that kind of helps us to

1496
00:53:28,849 --> 00:53:25,800
get over them and basically all of this

1497
00:53:31,069 --> 00:53:28,859
research shows that you don't need

1498
00:53:33,470 --> 00:53:31,079
um deception to take advantage of

1499
00:53:35,930 --> 00:53:33,480
expectation of Apes now one of the kind

1500
00:53:38,630 --> 00:53:35,940
of studies I like most looks at um

1501
00:53:41,030 --> 00:53:38,640
they're called open label placebos

1502
00:53:43,250 --> 00:53:41,040
they're like non-deceptive placebos so

1503
00:53:44,990 --> 00:53:43,260
there was a study from Portugal where

1504
00:53:47,030 --> 00:53:45,000
the researchers

1505
00:53:50,030 --> 00:53:47,040
um took people with chronic back pain

1506
00:53:51,589 --> 00:53:50,040
and you know they've been struggling the

1507
00:53:53,150 --> 00:53:51,599
patients have been struggling with with

1508
00:53:56,870 --> 00:53:53,160
this for a while

1509
00:53:59,030 --> 00:53:56,880
um and they actually gave them a a jar

1510
00:54:01,730 --> 00:53:59,040
of placebo pills that clearly said

1511
00:54:03,349 --> 00:54:01,740
Placebo pills take two a day like the

1512
00:54:05,450 --> 00:54:03,359
pills were kind of bright orange you

1513
00:54:07,069 --> 00:54:05,460
know quite striking but they knew that

1514
00:54:08,089 --> 00:54:07,079
they were didn't contain an active

1515
00:54:10,190 --> 00:54:08,099
ingredient

1516
00:54:12,410 --> 00:54:10,200
but the researchers also gave the

1517
00:54:15,829 --> 00:54:12,420
participants the kind of uh presentation

1518
00:54:17,930 --> 00:54:15,839
about the the placebo effect but all of

1519
00:54:19,970 --> 00:54:17,940
this evidence showing that actually good

1520
00:54:22,130 --> 00:54:19,980
expectations can help to relieve pain

1521
00:54:24,890 --> 00:54:22,140
that sometimes the brain itself can

1522
00:54:26,990 --> 00:54:24,900
create its own endogenous opioids it

1523
00:54:29,390 --> 00:54:27,000
kind of has its inner Pharmacy that it

1524
00:54:30,950 --> 00:54:29,400
can tap that will help to produce its

1525
00:54:33,170 --> 00:54:30,960
own painkillers

1526
00:54:34,670 --> 00:54:33,180
um they learn all of these things and

1527
00:54:36,470 --> 00:54:34,680
then they were told like you don't have

1528
00:54:38,930 --> 00:54:36,480
to kind of take our word for it like you

1529
00:54:41,569 --> 00:54:38,940
don't have to you know convince yourself

1530
00:54:43,849 --> 00:54:41,579
that this is true like artificially kind

1531
00:54:45,950 --> 00:54:43,859
of lie to yourself or repeat to Mantra

1532
00:54:48,530 --> 00:54:45,960
like just kind of you know listen to the

1533
00:54:50,630 --> 00:54:48,540
evidence and you know process it as you

1534
00:54:52,609 --> 00:54:50,640
want but you do have to then take the

1535
00:54:54,049 --> 00:54:52,619
pills like the ritual of taking the

1536
00:54:55,910 --> 00:54:54,059
pills that's really important so take

1537
00:54:58,430 --> 00:54:55,920
one in the morning one in the evening

1538
00:55:00,829 --> 00:54:58,440
like do that for the next

1539
00:55:02,270 --> 00:55:00,839
um week and what the researchers found

1540
00:55:04,730 --> 00:55:02,280
was that actually

1541
00:55:06,829 --> 00:55:04,740
you know the ritual of the pills and

1542
00:55:08,569 --> 00:55:06,839
bind with that information that they'd

1543
00:55:10,010 --> 00:55:08,579
been given that kind of empowering

1544
00:55:13,190 --> 00:55:10,020
information about the mind-body

1545
00:55:14,990 --> 00:55:13,200
connection the bat alone was enough to

1546
00:55:17,510 --> 00:55:15,000
produce a clinically significant

1547
00:55:19,069 --> 00:55:17,520
decrease in

1548
00:55:22,190 --> 00:55:19,079
um pain symptoms that they were feeling

1549
00:55:24,410 --> 00:55:22,200
so reduced it by I think it's 29 which

1550
00:55:25,970 --> 00:55:24,420
is the kind of threshold but you know if

1551
00:55:27,170 --> 00:55:25,980
you're trying to approve a new drug for

1552
00:55:29,630 --> 00:55:27,180
pain relief

1553
00:55:31,190 --> 00:55:29,640
um and you know then they the kind of

1554
00:55:32,990 --> 00:55:31,200
participants went away the trial was

1555
00:55:34,849 --> 00:55:33,000
ended it was written up for five years

1556
00:55:37,490 --> 00:55:34,859
later the researchers kind of boosted

1557
00:55:39,890 --> 00:55:37,500
these same participants and found that

1558
00:55:43,190 --> 00:55:39,900
even five years later they were still

1559
00:55:44,870 --> 00:55:43,200
like managing and coping better than the

1560
00:55:47,030 --> 00:55:44,880
participants who hadn't received the

1561
00:55:48,230 --> 00:55:47,040
placebo pills those had just continued

1562
00:55:50,870 --> 00:55:48,240
their

1563
00:55:52,730 --> 00:55:50,880
um treatment as usual so that really

1564
00:55:55,069 --> 00:55:52,740
suggested that actually

1565
00:55:57,589 --> 00:55:55,079
knowing about the expectation effect

1566
00:55:59,930 --> 00:55:57,599
knowing about these benefits can in

1567
00:56:02,030 --> 00:55:59,940
itself Empower you and kind of can

1568
00:56:05,510 --> 00:56:02,040
create the expectation of pain relief in

1569
00:56:06,829 --> 00:56:05,520
this case but actually then produces the

1570
00:56:09,530 --> 00:56:06,839
benefits that you want without any

1571
00:56:11,329 --> 00:56:09,540
detention that's now been replicated a

1572
00:56:12,650 --> 00:56:11,339
few different times for different

1573
00:56:14,270 --> 00:56:12,660
illnesses

1574
00:56:16,309 --> 00:56:14,280
um and we know that there are other kind

1575
00:56:18,170 --> 00:56:16,319
of tactics too so actually you can do

1576
00:56:20,510 --> 00:56:18,180
away with the kind of sham treatment

1577
00:56:23,450 --> 00:56:20,520
altogether in some cases and just give

1578
00:56:25,309 --> 00:56:23,460
people a kind of psychological therapy

1579
00:56:28,609 --> 00:56:25,319
that just helps to them to form

1580
00:56:31,309 --> 00:56:28,619
optimistic but realistic expectations of

1581
00:56:32,930 --> 00:56:31,319
the recovery from surgery for example so

1582
00:56:35,690 --> 00:56:32,940
you you kind of give them information

1583
00:56:38,390 --> 00:56:35,700
that allays their worries about the

1584
00:56:40,250 --> 00:56:38,400
effects of the surgery and helps them to

1585
00:56:42,109 --> 00:56:40,260
plan out this kind of recovery that they

1586
00:56:44,089 --> 00:56:42,119
would like to see against them to feel

1587
00:56:45,770 --> 00:56:44,099
excited about all of the kind of new

1588
00:56:48,230 --> 00:56:45,780
activities they'll be able to do when

1589
00:56:51,049 --> 00:56:48,240
they when they feel better and that that

1590
00:56:52,609 --> 00:56:51,059
psychological therapy alone can produce

1591
00:56:56,230 --> 00:56:52,619
some of the benefits that you would want

1592
00:56:59,150 --> 00:56:56,240
to see they leave Hospital more quickly

1593
00:57:00,890 --> 00:56:59,160
they return to work more quickly may

1594
00:57:03,349 --> 00:57:00,900
also show differences in signs of kind

1595
00:57:04,670 --> 00:57:03,359
of inflammation within the body um the

1596
00:57:07,549 --> 00:57:04,680
lower the inflammation the kind of

1597
00:57:09,770 --> 00:57:07,559
quicker the biological recovery and so

1598
00:57:11,870 --> 00:57:09,780
that's just two ways that you can kind

1599
00:57:14,750 --> 00:57:11,880
of apply the principle of the placebo

1600
00:57:17,150 --> 00:57:14,760
effect but without being deceptive and

1601
00:57:18,710 --> 00:57:17,160
then you know in other areas of life I

1602
00:57:20,690 --> 00:57:18,720
kind of explain how you can apply the

1603
00:57:23,390 --> 00:57:20,700
same kinds of principles to things like

1604
00:57:24,890 --> 00:57:23,400
um you know managing sleep loss or kind

1605
00:57:26,750 --> 00:57:24,900
of boosting your experience of exercise

1606
00:57:28,790 --> 00:57:26,760
you don't have to fool yourself into

1607
00:57:29,450 --> 00:57:28,800
thinking that you

1608
00:57:32,030 --> 00:57:29,460
um

1609
00:57:33,829 --> 00:57:32,040
have those good genes for exercise for

1610
00:57:36,109 --> 00:57:33,839
example to actually benefit from that

1611
00:57:38,049 --> 00:57:36,119
kind of uh expectation effect it's

1612
00:57:40,609 --> 00:57:38,059
actually just enough for you to start

1613
00:57:42,410 --> 00:57:40,619
reappraising the things that you'd

1614
00:57:44,150 --> 00:57:42,420
associated with exercise and kind of

1615
00:57:46,730 --> 00:57:44,160
changing your assumptions kind of just

1616
00:57:49,069 --> 00:57:46,740
being very objective about it really

1617
00:57:51,470 --> 00:57:49,079
um so yeah it's Lots that's what's so

1618
00:57:53,410 --> 00:57:51,480
exciting to me is that actually you know

1619
00:57:56,030 --> 00:57:53,420
we don't have to be this kind of

1620
00:57:58,190 --> 00:57:56,040
self-delusional Pollyanna is kind of

1621
00:57:59,630 --> 00:57:58,200
always kind of fooling themselves into

1622
00:58:01,910 --> 00:57:59,640
thinking things are better than they are

1623
00:58:04,370 --> 00:58:01,920
it's all just about kind of having this

1624
00:58:06,650 --> 00:58:04,380
knowledge of what the brain can do and

1625
00:58:08,630 --> 00:58:06,660
then trying to think of like clever ways

1626
00:58:11,930 --> 00:58:08,640
of applying that and of kind of forming

1627
00:58:14,089 --> 00:58:11,940
or reappraising your old assumptions and

1628
00:58:16,190 --> 00:58:14,099
kind of forming new expectations that

1629
00:58:18,470 --> 00:58:16,200
that can be beneficial and Optimum to

1630
00:58:19,730 --> 00:58:18,480
you what can one do specifically to up

1631
00:58:21,710 --> 00:58:19,740
raise their level of sleep so that's

1632
00:58:23,809 --> 00:58:21,720
something I need even sleep quality let

1633
00:58:25,370 --> 00:58:23,819
alone the hours and also like I

1634
00:58:27,710 --> 00:58:25,380
mentioned this is going to be a part of

1635
00:58:29,390 --> 00:58:27,720
a series on learning extremely difficult

1636
00:58:31,430 --> 00:58:29,400
mathematics and physics so what can some

1637
00:58:33,710 --> 00:58:31,440
someone who's watching this due to

1638
00:58:36,890 --> 00:58:33,720
increase the rate of learning utilizing

1639
00:58:37,730 --> 00:58:36,900
the expectation effect yeah sure so

1640
00:58:39,410 --> 00:58:37,740
um

1641
00:58:42,470 --> 00:58:39,420
to take

1642
00:58:44,089 --> 00:58:42,480
um sleep burst uh you know like

1643
00:58:50,150 --> 00:58:44,099
a lot of

1644
00:58:53,030 --> 00:58:50,160
fear of not getting enough sleep

1645
00:58:55,250 --> 00:58:53,040
um so you know like we know like it's

1646
00:58:57,289 --> 00:58:55,260
well accepted amongst um kind of

1647
00:59:00,170 --> 00:58:57,299
cognitive behavioral therapists who help

1648
00:59:01,789 --> 00:59:00,180
people with insomnia that we can develop

1649
00:59:03,410 --> 00:59:01,799
all of these kind of really damaging

1650
00:59:05,630 --> 00:59:03,420
beliefs about the sleep that we're

1651
00:59:07,609 --> 00:59:05,640
getting so if you've had sleep loss in

1652
00:59:09,829 --> 00:59:07,619
the past then that kind of creates an

1653
00:59:12,349 --> 00:59:09,839
anxiety about not being able to get to

1654
00:59:14,990 --> 00:59:12,359
sleep in the future and those anxieties

1655
00:59:16,370 --> 00:59:15,000
put you in a state of high arousal so

1656
00:59:18,530 --> 00:59:16,380
that you

1657
00:59:21,170 --> 00:59:18,540
um find it much harder to get to sleep

1658
00:59:23,510 --> 00:59:21,180
because your your brain is awful alert

1659
00:59:25,849 --> 00:59:23,520
um now one way around that unintuitively

1660
00:59:26,870 --> 00:59:25,859
is that actually if you try to stay

1661
00:59:29,930 --> 00:59:26,880
awake

1662
00:59:31,970 --> 00:59:29,940
is a kind of ironic interesting therapy

1663
00:59:33,829 --> 00:59:31,980
tried to stay awake your you know

1664
00:59:36,470 --> 00:59:33,839
studies suggest that you're more likely

1665
00:59:37,910 --> 00:59:36,480
to fall asleep so I don't think that's a

1666
00:59:40,430 --> 00:59:37,920
case of like just

1667
00:59:41,930 --> 00:59:40,440
you know staying up partying and like

1668
00:59:43,730 --> 00:59:41,940
expecting it to come kind of

1669
00:59:46,069 --> 00:59:43,740
miraculously but you know when you're

1670
00:59:48,170 --> 00:59:46,079
lying in bed and if you feel like you're

1671
00:59:49,549 --> 00:59:48,180
desperate to fall asleep actually don't

1672
00:59:51,650 --> 00:59:49,559
like try to think of something that's

1673
00:59:53,270 --> 00:59:51,660
going to stay keep you awake and you'll

1674
00:59:56,390 --> 00:59:53,280
probably find then you're kind of

1675
00:59:59,150 --> 00:59:56,400
drowsing and falling off naturally

1676
01:00:00,650 --> 00:59:59,160
um so that's one strategy mindfulness is

1677
01:00:03,049 --> 01:00:00,660
a good way if you can learn mindfulness

1678
01:00:04,250 --> 01:00:03,059
and you can apply it well that can be

1679
01:00:06,589 --> 01:00:04,260
another good way of just kind of

1680
01:00:08,510 --> 01:00:06,599
avoiding those kind of fretful thoughts

1681
01:00:10,970 --> 01:00:08,520
as you fall asleep and it's almost like

1682
01:00:13,490 --> 01:00:10,980
having that non-judgmental

1683
01:00:15,470 --> 01:00:13,500
um awareness of what you're thinking so

1684
01:00:17,510 --> 01:00:15,480
you stop catastrophizing like if you've

1685
01:00:19,970 --> 01:00:17,520
got all that stuff going around in your

1686
01:00:22,730 --> 01:00:19,980
head like you kind of notice it and let

1687
01:00:24,710 --> 01:00:22,740
it go without judging yourself for it um

1688
01:00:27,230 --> 01:00:24,720
that can be beneficial

1689
01:00:29,809 --> 01:00:27,240
um but equally important I think is

1690
01:00:31,490 --> 01:00:29,819
looking at our expectations of what the

1691
01:00:33,170 --> 01:00:31,500
Sleep loss is going to do to the day

1692
01:00:34,970 --> 01:00:33,180
ahead so if you're struggling to get

1693
01:00:36,650 --> 01:00:34,980
sleep or maybe you've been asleep and

1694
01:00:38,630 --> 01:00:36,660
you wake up like always happens to me

1695
01:00:39,950 --> 01:00:38,640
you wake up at like two o'clock in the

1696
01:00:41,690 --> 01:00:39,960
morning

1697
01:00:43,789 --> 01:00:41,700
um you can immediately start thinking

1698
01:00:46,190 --> 01:00:43,799
well like if I don't get to sleep now

1699
01:00:47,510 --> 01:00:46,200
then tomorrow I'm gonna be wrecked I'm

1700
01:00:49,069 --> 01:00:47,520
going to be irritable I'm not going to

1701
01:00:50,150 --> 01:00:49,079
be able to meet my deadline you know all

1702
01:00:51,829 --> 01:00:50,160
of those things

1703
01:00:53,870 --> 01:00:51,839
um actually just stop thinking about

1704
01:00:55,970 --> 01:00:53,880
those events and the reason that you can

1705
01:00:58,910 --> 01:00:55,980
do that is that the research shows that

1706
01:01:01,190 --> 01:00:58,920
actually is those expectations that

1707
01:01:02,690 --> 01:01:01,200
create the symptoms of Sleepless the

1708
01:01:04,910 --> 01:01:02,700
next day so there have been lots of

1709
01:01:06,710 --> 01:01:04,920
research longitudinal studies like I

1710
01:01:09,049 --> 01:01:06,720
mentioned also laboratory intervention

1711
01:01:11,089 --> 01:01:09,059
studies that gave people false feedback

1712
01:01:14,030 --> 01:01:11,099
about their Sleep Quality they all

1713
01:01:15,950 --> 01:01:14,040
suggest that if you expect to suffer

1714
01:01:18,289 --> 01:01:15,960
because of your sleep loss you're more

1715
01:01:20,030 --> 01:01:18,299
likely to suffer the next day from your

1716
01:01:21,589 --> 01:01:20,040
sleep loss so you tell someone that

1717
01:01:24,589 --> 01:01:21,599
they've had really you get them in the

1718
01:01:27,170 --> 01:01:24,599
lab and attach electrodes to them let

1719
01:01:28,670 --> 01:01:27,180
them kind of sleep sleep and then tell

1720
01:01:30,230 --> 01:01:28,680
them the next day that they have

1721
01:01:31,730 --> 01:01:30,240
actually that they had a terrible

1722
01:01:34,370 --> 01:01:31,740
night's sleep according to the

1723
01:01:36,650 --> 01:01:34,380
electrical recordings that expectation

1724
01:01:38,870 --> 01:01:36,660
will then cause them the next day to

1725
01:01:41,930 --> 01:01:38,880
feel more fatigued to struggle to

1726
01:01:44,150 --> 01:01:41,940
concentrate to to be more irritable

1727
01:01:47,630 --> 01:01:44,160
that's extremely interesting because

1728
01:01:49,849 --> 01:01:47,640
there's obviously the news which outputs

1729
01:01:52,490 --> 01:01:49,859
dangerous messages when I say dangerous

1730
01:01:54,170 --> 01:01:52,500
I mean messages of danger and part of it

1731
01:01:56,089 --> 01:01:54,180
is they want to inform people like part

1732
01:01:58,069 --> 01:01:56,099
of a deleterious they they're trying to

1733
01:02:00,530 --> 01:01:58,079
get views but let's say optimistically

1734
01:02:02,690 --> 01:02:00,540
they're trying to inform but by doing so

1735
01:02:04,849 --> 01:02:02,700
they may create conditions that make the

1736
01:02:07,910 --> 01:02:04,859
danger worse and then Michael Walker of

1737
01:02:09,530 --> 01:02:07,920
the Sleep books Matt Walker of what

1738
01:02:10,670 --> 01:02:09,540
what's this book called

1739
01:02:14,569 --> 01:02:10,680
um

1740
01:02:17,030 --> 01:02:14,579
why we sleep yeah okay so Matt Walker he

1741
01:02:20,450 --> 01:02:17,040
talks about the detrimental effects of

1742
01:02:22,970 --> 01:02:20,460
sleep loss and partly that I think since

1743
01:02:25,130 --> 01:02:22,980
I started caring about my sleep I start

1744
01:02:26,809 --> 01:02:25,140
to have sleep issues I had an aura ring

1745
01:02:29,329 --> 01:02:26,819
I don't I no longer use the aura ring

1746
01:02:31,670 --> 01:02:29,339
because I found myself being fanatic

1747
01:02:33,770 --> 01:02:31,680
about checking my stats and then

1748
01:02:35,210 --> 01:02:33,780
worrying when they weren't optimal so

1749
01:02:38,150 --> 01:02:35,220
that's interesting because you want to

1750
01:02:40,309 --> 01:02:38,160
inform but at the same time informing

1751
01:02:41,630 --> 01:02:40,319
may do more harm than good how does one

1752
01:02:44,569 --> 01:02:41,640
navigate around that

1753
01:02:46,309 --> 01:02:44,579
I mean it's interesting you say about uh

1754
01:02:49,250 --> 01:02:46,319
Matt Walker's book you know I'm a big

1755
01:02:51,950 --> 01:02:49,260
fan actually but um you know I have read

1756
01:02:53,690 --> 01:02:51,960
like blogs by kind of sleep scientists

1757
01:02:55,970 --> 01:02:53,700
who've you know said that they're

1758
01:02:59,089 --> 01:02:55,980
actually worried that like it's created

1759
01:03:01,309 --> 01:02:59,099
a lot of anxiety about sleep that then

1760
01:03:03,650 --> 01:03:01,319
is leading more people to come to sleep

1761
01:03:05,930 --> 01:03:03,660
clinics with sleep problems and that the

1762
01:03:08,450 --> 01:03:05,940
anxiety is kind of exacerbating their

1763
01:03:09,710 --> 01:03:08,460
issues now I think you know it's a kind

1764
01:03:10,609 --> 01:03:09,720
of like we were talking about earlier

1765
01:03:13,190 --> 01:03:10,619
it's like

1766
01:03:15,289 --> 01:03:13,200
you know should we give information to

1767
01:03:16,730 --> 01:03:15,299
people like we want to be informed but

1768
01:03:19,010 --> 01:03:16,740
should we be giving information that's

1769
01:03:20,510 --> 01:03:19,020
actually going to harm people's um

1770
01:03:22,190 --> 01:03:20,520
quality of life and I think we should I

1771
01:03:23,870 --> 01:03:22,200
think we need to know you know the truth

1772
01:03:26,450 --> 01:03:23,880
about kind of the importance of sleep

1773
01:03:27,950 --> 01:03:26,460
because you know you might be suffering

1774
01:03:29,390 --> 01:03:27,960
from the kinds of sleep problems that

1775
01:03:31,609 --> 01:03:29,400
we've spoken about that are fueled by

1776
01:03:32,569 --> 01:03:31,619
anxiety but you know there's also lots

1777
01:03:34,190 --> 01:03:32,579
of people who just aren't giving

1778
01:03:35,930 --> 01:03:34,200
themselves enough time to get to sleep

1779
01:03:38,150 --> 01:03:35,940
and then you know you want those people

1780
01:03:40,849 --> 01:03:38,160
to be able to make a better informed

1781
01:03:44,329 --> 01:03:40,859
decision of kind of their lifestyle

1782
01:03:46,130 --> 01:03:44,339
um but I think the message can be

1783
01:03:49,910 --> 01:03:46,140
presented in such a way that it doesn't

1784
01:03:51,170 --> 01:03:49,920
kind of catastrophize the effects of a

1785
01:03:53,809 --> 01:03:51,180
loss of sleep and I think maybe what's

1786
01:03:56,930 --> 01:03:53,819
been lost in some of this messaging is

1787
01:03:59,390 --> 01:03:56,940
that you know the occasional sleep loss

1788
01:04:01,370 --> 01:03:59,400
that you might get doesn't have to be a

1789
01:04:02,630 --> 01:04:01,380
catastrophe for you so you know if you

1790
01:04:04,130 --> 01:04:02,640
wake up

1791
01:04:05,870 --> 01:04:04,140
um and then we looked at night for half

1792
01:04:08,150 --> 01:04:05,880
an hour that doesn't mean that you're

1793
01:04:09,770 --> 01:04:08,160
gonna struggle the next day but look but

1794
01:04:11,870 --> 01:04:09,780
we can develop this belief that it will

1795
01:04:14,630 --> 01:04:11,880
do so any slight disturbance becomes

1796
01:04:16,130 --> 01:04:14,640
like a serious worry for us

1797
01:04:17,690 --> 01:04:16,140
um so I think we need to acknowledge

1798
01:04:19,190 --> 01:04:17,700
that we need to kind of put things in

1799
01:04:19,970 --> 01:04:19,200
proportion

1800
01:04:24,349 --> 01:04:19,980
um

1801
01:04:26,150 --> 01:04:24,359
that have been proven to work so you

1802
01:04:27,410 --> 01:04:26,160
know I think like hopefully just by

1803
01:04:29,210 --> 01:04:27,420
understanding a bit about this

1804
01:04:30,650 --> 01:04:29,220
expectation of age you know people

1805
01:04:32,930 --> 01:04:30,660
who've read that chapter I've heard that

1806
01:04:34,849 --> 01:04:32,940
it has kind of immediately helped them

1807
01:04:36,650 --> 01:04:34,859
work their sleep and I was like super

1808
01:04:38,930 --> 01:04:36,660
pleased about that but if people are

1809
01:04:40,730 --> 01:04:38,940
having these kind of continuing problems

1810
01:04:42,770 --> 01:04:40,740
with their sleep you know they're really

1811
01:04:44,930 --> 01:04:42,780
struggling to get

1812
01:04:46,730 --> 01:04:44,940
um to get enough each night and it's

1813
01:04:49,069 --> 01:04:46,740
becoming something that's really

1814
01:04:51,530 --> 01:04:49,079
damaging their lifestyle well then they

1815
01:04:54,289 --> 01:04:51,540
can go to a specialized sleep therapist

1816
01:04:56,930 --> 01:04:54,299
who won't put them on sleeping pills

1817
01:04:59,630 --> 01:04:56,940
which you know the efficacy of sleeping

1818
01:05:00,950 --> 01:04:59,640
pills is you know questionable but

1819
01:05:02,390 --> 01:05:00,960
instead they will help them to change

1820
01:05:05,390 --> 01:05:02,400
those beliefs in a more kind of

1821
01:05:07,789 --> 01:05:05,400
organized program so through cognitive

1822
01:05:10,490 --> 01:05:07,799
behavioral therapy or mindfulness based

1823
01:05:12,230 --> 01:05:10,500
therapy they'll help them to deal with

1824
01:05:13,910 --> 01:05:12,240
those kind of beliefs that are keeping

1825
01:05:16,370 --> 01:05:13,920
them awake at night and then causing

1826
01:05:18,710 --> 01:05:16,380
them this distress the next day and

1827
01:05:21,410 --> 01:05:18,720
those and that therapy working through

1828
01:05:22,670 --> 01:05:21,420
practical problems talking about the

1829
01:05:24,650 --> 01:05:22,680
science and the evidence and you know

1830
01:05:26,630 --> 01:05:24,660
giving them that knowledge that can be

1831
01:05:29,809 --> 01:05:26,640
really beneficial for curing insomnia

1832
01:05:32,030 --> 01:05:29,819
too so I would say if you have this kind

1833
01:05:33,589 --> 01:05:32,040
of um prolonged problem you know do get

1834
01:05:35,809 --> 01:05:33,599
help but it doesn't have to be a

1835
01:05:39,230 --> 01:05:35,819
pharmaceutical solution like there are

1836
01:05:41,510 --> 01:05:39,240
but psychological means of dealing with

1837
01:05:43,430 --> 01:05:41,520
sleep loss that can take advantage of

1838
01:05:45,230 --> 01:05:43,440
the expectation effect

1839
01:05:47,990 --> 01:05:45,240
much of this has so far been about

1840
01:05:50,089 --> 01:05:48,000
ameliorating what is a medical issue

1841
01:05:52,069 --> 01:05:50,099
what about if we have no issue and we

1842
01:05:54,049 --> 01:05:52,079
want to accelerate in a certain area for

1843
01:05:56,390 --> 01:05:54,059
instance learning Arcane math physics

1844
01:05:58,190 --> 01:05:56,400
computer science philosophy how does one

1845
01:05:59,630 --> 01:05:58,200
utilize some of these techniques does

1846
01:06:01,970 --> 01:05:59,640
one take a pill in the morning can they

1847
01:06:04,430 --> 01:06:01,980
self-assign the pill does one inject is

1848
01:06:06,589 --> 01:06:04,440
injecting better yeah

1849
01:06:08,030 --> 01:06:06,599
um you know I mean I wish I really

1850
01:06:09,829 --> 01:06:08,040
kicked myself that I didn't know about

1851
01:06:12,109 --> 01:06:09,839
all of the science before I did my own

1852
01:06:14,390 --> 01:06:12,119
degree in mathematics because you know

1853
01:06:14,990 --> 01:06:14,400
it's a tough degree

1854
01:06:18,230 --> 01:06:15,000
um

1855
01:06:19,849 --> 01:06:18,240
I you know I I did fine but like I think

1856
01:06:21,470 --> 01:06:19,859
I could have done better if I'd known

1857
01:06:22,910 --> 01:06:21,480
all but I know now about the psychology

1858
01:06:25,130 --> 01:06:22,920
of learning

1859
01:06:26,029 --> 01:06:25,140
um and I think one of the lessons that

1860
01:06:30,950 --> 01:06:26,039
really

1861
01:06:32,569 --> 01:06:30,960
it's relevant whatever job you do but

1862
01:06:35,510 --> 01:06:32,579
especially with learning

1863
01:06:37,190 --> 01:06:35,520
needs to reappraise the effects of

1864
01:06:37,910 --> 01:06:37,200
prostration

1865
01:06:40,250 --> 01:06:37,920
um

1866
01:06:42,770 --> 01:06:40,260
and I think this gets to the kind of

1867
01:06:45,289 --> 01:06:42,780
Heart of like how we can use the

1868
01:06:47,470 --> 01:06:45,299
expectation effect more generally

1869
01:06:50,089 --> 01:06:47,480
um so for example if you're

1870
01:06:52,190 --> 01:06:50,099
exercising you're working out you feel

1871
01:06:55,250 --> 01:06:52,200
aches and your muscles you feel out of

1872
01:06:57,109 --> 01:06:55,260
breath you can assume that those uh

1873
01:06:58,190 --> 01:06:57,119
symptoms are kind of a sign of your lack

1874
01:06:59,870 --> 01:06:58,200
of fitness and you can kind of

1875
01:07:01,789 --> 01:06:59,880
catastrophize them and that you think

1876
01:07:04,130 --> 01:07:01,799
like you start telling yourself you have

1877
01:07:05,870 --> 01:07:04,140
this negative internal monologue that's

1878
01:07:08,390 --> 01:07:05,880
like I'm a failure I'm struggling I'm

1879
01:07:11,390 --> 01:07:08,400
really unfair I'm not gonna manage to

1880
01:07:13,490 --> 01:07:11,400
like to get through this workout and

1881
01:07:15,950 --> 01:07:13,500
you know the research on the expectation

1882
01:07:17,809 --> 01:07:15,960
of it shows that actually just changing

1883
01:07:20,510 --> 01:07:17,819
the way the meaning you assign to those

1884
01:07:22,870 --> 01:07:20,520
feelings can change your performance so

1885
01:07:26,390 --> 01:07:22,880
if you see rather than like those being

1886
01:07:29,569 --> 01:07:26,400
those symptoms as being like um

1887
01:07:30,950 --> 01:07:29,579
you know detrimental negative signs of

1888
01:07:33,829 --> 01:07:30,960
failure if you actually just say as

1889
01:07:35,870 --> 01:07:33,839
you're pushing your body to its limits

1890
01:07:37,430 --> 01:07:35,880
of building string that's actually

1891
01:07:39,230 --> 01:07:37,440
really beneficial and it helps you to

1892
01:07:41,390 --> 01:07:39,240
enjoy the exercise more it creates the

1893
01:07:43,910 --> 01:07:41,400
endorphin rush you know it can really

1894
01:07:46,670 --> 01:07:43,920
build up your stamina uh just by

1895
01:07:48,710 --> 01:07:46,680
changing that mindset and I think

1896
01:07:50,450 --> 01:07:48,720
exactly the same thing happens in

1897
01:07:53,690 --> 01:07:50,460
learning and there are studies that show

1898
01:07:56,510 --> 01:07:53,700
this so if you're learning arcade maths

1899
01:07:58,670 --> 01:07:56,520
but it's really inevitable unless you

1900
01:08:01,069 --> 01:07:58,680
are some kind of like incredible genius

1901
01:08:02,750 --> 01:08:01,079
that you're gonna feel frustrated

1902
01:08:05,750 --> 01:08:02,760
sometimes you're going to not be able to

1903
01:08:07,789 --> 01:08:05,760
solve that problem but the concepts

1904
01:08:09,529 --> 01:08:07,799
aren't going to stick that you there's

1905
01:08:11,089 --> 01:08:09,539
going to be some kind of Gap in your

1906
01:08:12,950 --> 01:08:11,099
knowledge that you're really struggling

1907
01:08:14,390 --> 01:08:12,960
to overcome that kind of Gap in

1908
01:08:16,970 --> 01:08:14,400
understanding

1909
01:08:20,090 --> 01:08:16,980
what the the research shows is that you

1910
01:08:22,669 --> 01:08:20,100
can appraise that frustration

1911
01:08:24,470 --> 01:08:22,679
as in the same way that someone who's

1912
01:08:26,209 --> 01:08:24,480
struggling at the gym appraises the

1913
01:08:28,970 --> 01:08:26,219
muscle aches you can see it as a sign of

1914
01:08:30,530 --> 01:08:28,980
failure as a kind of sign that you're

1915
01:08:33,050 --> 01:08:30,540
not smart enough that you're not

1916
01:08:34,910 --> 01:08:33,060
intelligent enough that you that you're

1917
01:08:37,610 --> 01:08:34,920
not learning that you're not progressing

1918
01:08:39,669 --> 01:08:37,620
uh you can just say it purely

1919
01:08:42,650 --> 01:08:39,679
detrimentally

1920
01:08:45,950 --> 01:08:42,660
or you connect that and this is also

1921
01:08:48,470 --> 01:08:45,960
totally rational and actually true you

1922
01:08:51,410 --> 01:08:48,480
can accept the fact that um frustration

1923
01:08:53,450 --> 01:08:51,420
is just an inevitable and important part

1924
01:08:55,249 --> 01:08:53,460
of learning in the same way that you're

1925
01:08:57,470 --> 01:08:55,259
pushing the body when you're working out

1926
01:09:00,050 --> 01:08:57,480
you're pushing your brain to build new

1927
01:09:02,749 --> 01:09:00,060
connections to Grapple with really

1928
01:09:04,249 --> 01:09:02,759
complex difficult ideas and if you

1929
01:09:05,749 --> 01:09:04,259
weren't feeling frustrated you wouldn't

1930
01:09:08,150 --> 01:09:05,759
be stretching yourself you wouldn't be

1931
01:09:10,309 --> 01:09:08,160
building your knowledge and what the

1932
01:09:12,470 --> 01:09:10,319
research shows is that when you come to

1933
01:09:15,590 --> 01:09:12,480
accept and even embrace the frustration

1934
01:09:17,749 --> 01:09:15,600
and you recognize that it's crucial for

1935
01:09:21,349 --> 01:09:17,759
learning but that actually helps you to

1936
01:09:24,349 --> 01:09:21,359
learn better it helps your determination

1937
01:09:26,390 --> 01:09:24,359
and perseverance but to actually almost

1938
01:09:28,249 --> 01:09:26,400
like frees up part of your mind because

1939
01:09:30,229 --> 01:09:28,259
you're no longer feeling all that kind

1940
01:09:31,910 --> 01:09:30,239
of anxiety it's not going through your

1941
01:09:34,189 --> 01:09:31,920
hair taking up your mental resources

1942
01:09:36,410 --> 01:09:34,199
you're just accepting it and then

1943
01:09:39,590 --> 01:09:36,420
getting on with the problem and that

1944
01:09:42,110 --> 01:09:39,600
that you know Lesson by lesson like can

1945
01:09:44,150 --> 01:09:42,120
a class by class you know Problem by

1946
01:09:45,709 --> 01:09:44,160
problem that's going to help you with

1947
01:09:47,150 --> 01:09:45,719
your progress and that's definitely

1948
01:09:48,590 --> 01:09:47,160
something that I noticed in my own

1949
01:09:51,890 --> 01:09:48,600
degree I just didn't know the science

1950
01:09:53,510 --> 01:09:51,900
behind it it was almost once I relaxed

1951
01:09:57,050 --> 01:09:53,520
into problems and just could kind of sit

1952
01:09:59,209 --> 01:09:57,060
with them without panicking when I

1953
01:10:01,729 --> 01:09:59,219
didn't get it immediately but that

1954
01:10:04,430 --> 01:10:01,739
actually just was incredibly important

1955
01:10:06,530 --> 01:10:04,440
for me to be able to progress a lot more

1956
01:10:09,530 --> 01:10:06,540
quickly and that's exactly the same when

1957
01:10:11,090 --> 01:10:09,540
I'm writing journalism now or writing my

1958
01:10:13,550 --> 01:10:11,100
books you know sometimes structuring

1959
01:10:15,229 --> 01:10:13,560
like a chapter is really frustrating

1960
01:10:17,750 --> 01:10:15,239
because you just don't see how you can

1961
01:10:19,669 --> 01:10:17,760
fit the pieces together in the right way

1962
01:10:20,930 --> 01:10:19,679
and you have to have that kind of

1963
01:10:23,030 --> 01:10:20,940
structure like you're playing almost

1964
01:10:25,610 --> 01:10:23,040
like a jigsaw in your mind like trying

1965
01:10:28,310 --> 01:10:25,620
to see the most elegant most

1966
01:10:30,709 --> 01:10:28,320
comprehensible most enticing way for a

1967
01:10:33,350 --> 01:10:30,719
subject and the more I just relax into

1968
01:10:35,990 --> 01:10:33,360
that frustration and accept that it's

1969
01:10:37,910 --> 01:10:36,000
just you know a creative block is kind

1970
01:10:39,530 --> 01:10:37,920
of part of being creative if you weren't

1971
01:10:42,290 --> 01:10:39,540
experiencing that it would just be a

1972
01:10:44,330 --> 01:10:42,300
kind of administrative task whereas

1973
01:10:46,130 --> 01:10:44,340
actually the frustration is the

1974
01:10:48,350 --> 01:10:46,140
creativity recognizing that actually

1975
01:10:49,970 --> 01:10:48,360
helps with my job today too so I think

1976
01:10:51,709 --> 01:10:49,980
it's something that can be applied in

1977
01:10:53,510 --> 01:10:51,719
all kinds of areas but absolutely with

1978
01:10:55,250 --> 01:10:53,520
maps I think the thing that holds so

1979
01:10:56,990 --> 01:10:55,260
many people back is that they get in

1980
01:10:59,750 --> 01:10:57,000
this kind of panic

1981
01:11:01,490 --> 01:10:59,760
um and actually just relaxing into that

1982
01:11:03,770 --> 01:11:01,500
and accepting it and even embracing it

1983
01:11:06,229 --> 01:11:03,780
is so powerful

1984
01:11:09,169 --> 01:11:06,239
what else would you do differently as an

1985
01:11:13,790 --> 01:11:10,970
um I think going back to crew to

1986
01:11:15,890 --> 01:11:13,800
curiosity though it mentioned uh yeah

1987
01:11:18,290 --> 01:11:15,900
and the benefits of curiosity for

1988
01:11:20,810 --> 01:11:18,300
reading I think with sometimes a

1989
01:11:22,669 --> 01:11:20,820
subject-like Maps or physics you know

1990
01:11:25,550 --> 01:11:22,679
it's very abstract and it can be quite

1991
01:11:27,770 --> 01:11:25,560
difficult for you to kind of

1992
01:11:29,630 --> 01:11:27,780
attach it to something really meaningful

1993
01:11:31,970 --> 01:11:29,640
in your life

1994
01:11:34,250 --> 01:11:31,980
um you might automatically have this

1995
01:11:36,470 --> 01:11:34,260
kind of Fascination where I don't know

1996
01:11:38,149 --> 01:11:36,480
like number Theory or whatever but um

1997
01:11:41,270 --> 01:11:38,159
but for me I was always more interested

1998
01:11:42,950 --> 01:11:41,280
in the applied maps and the pure maths

1999
01:11:46,189 --> 01:11:42,960
um felt like a kind of needless

2000
01:11:48,350 --> 01:11:46,199
distraction so I I was really dedicated

2001
01:11:50,689 --> 01:11:48,360
in trying to learn it but it never felt

2002
01:11:52,669 --> 01:11:50,699
pure maths felt like a distraction yeah

2003
01:11:54,229 --> 01:11:52,679
exactly compared to the applied Maps

2004
01:11:56,270 --> 01:11:54,239
which is like what I was really

2005
01:11:58,010 --> 01:11:56,280
interested in and I had no option like I

2006
01:11:59,990 --> 01:11:58,020
had to learn it

2007
01:12:01,610 --> 01:12:00,000
um you know and I think I put in a lot

2008
01:12:03,649 --> 01:12:01,620
of effort and I did fine like you know

2009
01:12:06,169 --> 01:12:03,659
it's not like I failed that class or

2010
01:12:08,209 --> 01:12:06,179
anything but um but knowing what I know

2011
01:12:10,130 --> 01:12:08,219
about curiosity now I think actually I

2012
01:12:11,990 --> 01:12:10,140
should have tried really rather than

2013
01:12:14,090 --> 01:12:12,000
just putting kind of

2014
01:12:15,770 --> 01:12:14,100
working like a Workhorse just kind of

2015
01:12:17,450 --> 01:12:15,780
putting in me out as I should have

2016
01:12:19,310 --> 01:12:17,460
thought a bit more creatively about how

2017
01:12:21,350 --> 01:12:19,320
to cultivate curiosity and what I was

2018
01:12:23,810 --> 01:12:21,360
learning and something really simple I

2019
01:12:26,270 --> 01:12:23,820
think like learning about the lives of

2020
01:12:28,610 --> 01:12:26,280
the mathematicians Behind these kind of

2021
01:12:30,530 --> 01:12:28,620
theories that I was learning that you

2022
01:12:32,750 --> 01:12:30,540
know I was never going to be tested on

2023
01:12:34,430 --> 01:12:32,760
any of that biographical information but

2024
01:12:36,290 --> 01:12:34,440
I know from the science of curiosity

2025
01:12:38,689 --> 01:12:36,300
that that could have been enough to kind

2026
01:12:41,209 --> 01:12:38,699
of spark an interest that would have

2027
01:12:43,010 --> 01:12:41,219
then had this spillover effect and made

2028
01:12:44,930 --> 01:12:43,020
the whole process of learning much more

2029
01:12:47,570 --> 01:12:44,940
meaningful for me because I know really

2030
01:12:49,850 --> 01:12:47,580
like people-centered person you know

2031
01:12:52,010 --> 01:12:49,860
like I love hearing not just about big

2032
01:12:53,570 --> 01:12:52,020
ideas about the kind of story behind the

2033
01:12:55,250 --> 01:12:53,580
ideas which is what I bring to my

2034
01:12:57,169 --> 01:12:55,260
journalism but I think I could have

2035
01:12:59,870 --> 01:12:57,179
brought that to my degree and actually

2036
01:13:01,729 --> 01:12:59,880
that kind of that you know enticing

2037
01:13:04,250 --> 01:13:01,739
myself into a subject could have been so

2038
01:13:07,430 --> 01:13:04,260
beneficial have you read the biography

2039
01:13:10,370 --> 01:13:07,440
of Da Vinci by Walter Isaacson I have

2040
01:13:12,590 --> 01:13:10,380
yeah both no one that you I think

2041
01:13:14,810 --> 01:13:12,600
there's no one in history that could be

2042
01:13:17,750 --> 01:13:14,820
described as being as curious as he was

2043
01:13:20,209 --> 01:13:17,760
but yeah yeah and in the book Walter

2044
01:13:22,189 --> 01:13:20,219
says in the beginning that he has

2045
01:13:23,990 --> 01:13:22,199
described Steve Jobs as a genius and

2046
01:13:25,790 --> 01:13:24,000
Einstein is a genius and so-and-so as a

2047
01:13:28,189 --> 01:13:25,800
genius but he said he was careful to not

2048
01:13:30,470 --> 01:13:28,199
call Da Vinci a genius because he feels

2049
01:13:32,270 --> 01:13:30,480
like virtually everything Da Vinci had

2050
01:13:34,430 --> 01:13:32,280
done could be cultivated in other people

2051
01:13:36,350 --> 01:13:34,440
it was just about being immensely

2052
01:13:38,149 --> 01:13:36,360
curious like he would paint on the wall

2053
01:13:39,709 --> 01:13:38,159
a line and then get him and his friend

2054
01:13:42,410 --> 01:13:39,719
to guess what is the length of that line

2055
01:13:44,450 --> 01:13:42,420
in one of the notes he scrawled what is

2056
01:13:46,729 --> 01:13:44,460
the function of the tongue of a

2057
01:13:48,830 --> 01:13:46,739
hummingbird or or a woodpecker something

2058
01:13:50,750 --> 01:13:48,840
like that and it turns out then he's

2059
01:13:53,090 --> 01:13:50,760
like whoa what the heck why would anyone

2060
01:13:55,310 --> 01:13:53,100
think of that firstly and then does a

2061
01:13:57,290 --> 01:13:55,320
bird beat its wings down faster than it

2062
01:13:59,689 --> 01:13:57,300
brings it up that's a question you just

2063
01:14:00,770 --> 01:13:59,699
you don't even think to ask and he would

2064
01:14:03,410 --> 01:14:00,780
ask them and turns out they had

2065
01:14:04,250 --> 01:14:03,420
extremely interesting answers there was

2066
01:14:07,250 --> 01:14:04,260
something different about the

2067
01:14:10,729 --> 01:14:07,260
woodpecker's tongue yeah exactly but I

2068
01:14:14,149 --> 01:14:10,739
mean I guess I would disagree with um

2069
01:14:18,169 --> 01:14:14,159
uh with him uh and I think like

2070
01:14:19,910 --> 01:14:18,179
that is a but it was that Curiosity that

2071
01:14:23,030 --> 01:14:19,920
was behind

2072
01:14:24,709 --> 01:14:23,040
um Da Vinci's genius you know so and it

2073
01:14:27,229 --> 01:14:24,719
was exceptional and I agreed that other

2074
01:14:29,810 --> 01:14:27,239
people could cultivate that Curiosity

2075
01:14:31,490 --> 01:14:29,820
potentially but then I think also people

2076
01:14:34,010 --> 01:14:31,500
could cultivate the traits that made

2077
01:14:36,410 --> 01:14:34,020
Steve Jobs I guess that's what I feel

2078
01:14:38,450 --> 01:14:36,420
about genius is that we especially

2079
01:14:39,350 --> 01:14:38,460
having written the expectation of it is

2080
01:14:43,850 --> 01:14:39,360
that

2081
01:14:45,290 --> 01:14:43,860
of god-given but actually you can break

2082
01:14:47,149 --> 01:14:45,300
it down and that's I mean there's so

2083
01:14:49,310 --> 01:14:47,159
many traits that contribute to genius

2084
01:14:52,010 --> 01:14:49,320
it's not like there's one secret but I

2085
01:14:54,890 --> 01:14:52,020
think they are all uh kind of can be

2086
01:14:56,330 --> 01:14:54,900
cultivated and and then you know

2087
01:14:58,669 --> 01:14:56,340
sometimes just for someone to be

2088
01:15:01,550 --> 01:14:58,679
recognized as a genius there's also kind

2089
01:15:02,689 --> 01:15:01,560
of good luck like you know you have to

2090
01:15:04,550 --> 01:15:02,699
be in the right place at the right time

2091
01:15:06,169 --> 01:15:04,560
to make your amazing Discovery like fine

2092
01:15:09,050 --> 01:15:06,179
man if you haven't been watching those

2093
01:15:10,910 --> 01:15:09,060
spinning plates and hadn't come up with

2094
01:15:13,250 --> 01:15:10,920
that particular idea at that particular

2095
01:15:16,130 --> 01:15:13,260
time maybe he wouldn't have won his

2096
01:15:18,950 --> 01:15:16,140
Nobel Prize you know so I think genius

2097
01:15:21,470 --> 01:15:18,960
is a very messy topic and I but I think

2098
01:15:22,910 --> 01:15:21,480
you know DaVinci yeah we can learn a lot

2099
01:15:25,070 --> 01:15:22,920
from him but we can learn a lot from all

2100
01:15:26,990 --> 01:15:25,080
of these other people today I agree with

2101
01:15:28,850 --> 01:15:27,000
all of what you said minus the luck part

2102
01:15:31,189 --> 01:15:28,860
but it's not that I disagree about the

2103
01:15:33,950 --> 01:15:31,199
luck it's more about that if we follow

2104
01:15:36,530 --> 01:15:33,960
the logic of the luck it's not so you

2105
01:15:38,570 --> 01:15:36,540
could say well 50 of their success was

2106
01:15:40,669 --> 01:15:38,580
luck well if you follow the logic they

2107
01:15:43,250 --> 01:15:40,679
got you to that to that 50 you could

2108
01:15:45,110 --> 01:15:43,260
drag that all the way to 99.99 999

2109
01:15:47,090 --> 01:15:45,120
because you could just end up with the

2110
01:15:49,430 --> 01:15:47,100
logic of Dr Manhattan I think his name

2111
01:15:50,990 --> 01:15:49,440
was from the Watchman who said yeah but

2112
01:15:53,030 --> 01:15:51,000
for even you to be here every atom

2113
01:15:55,310 --> 01:15:53,040
needed to coalesce with this Adam and

2114
01:15:57,470 --> 01:15:55,320
this organism needed to not die and so

2115
01:15:59,390 --> 01:15:57,480
on and so the chances of you being here

2116
01:16:01,070 --> 01:15:59,400
are so astronomically zero so you could

2117
01:16:03,530 --> 01:16:01,080
follow that line to say essentially

2118
01:16:05,689 --> 01:16:03,540
every single aspect of you is luck and

2119
01:16:07,610 --> 01:16:05,699
there's almost zero free will if free

2120
01:16:09,229 --> 01:16:07,620
will even exist at all and then that has

2121
01:16:10,850 --> 01:16:09,239
its own downsides that's why I have

2122
01:16:12,470 --> 01:16:10,860
issues with any arguments about luck

2123
01:16:14,030 --> 01:16:12,480
like there's obviously positive about

2124
01:16:16,910 --> 01:16:14,040
luck because you don't want to say every

2125
01:16:18,470 --> 01:16:16,920
single thing in a person is due to their

2126
01:16:20,450 --> 01:16:18,480
own merits or that they're flawed in

2127
01:16:23,750 --> 01:16:20,460
some way like that's horrible but then

2128
01:16:26,030 --> 01:16:23,760
logically speaking any argument for an

2129
01:16:29,630 --> 01:16:26,040
incorporation of even 10 luck can be

2130
01:16:30,470 --> 01:16:29,640
pushed to 99.9999 luck how do you deal

2131
01:16:33,050 --> 01:16:30,480
with that

2132
01:16:34,850 --> 01:16:33,060
and I guess I kind of do you know see a

2133
01:16:36,770 --> 01:16:34,860
point and I kind of agree with it and

2134
01:16:38,510 --> 01:16:36,780
you know I like to think that say

2135
01:16:40,189 --> 01:16:38,520
someone like Brian went you know if he

2136
01:16:42,530 --> 01:16:40,199
hadn't been in that container at that

2137
01:16:44,570 --> 01:16:42,540
time he would have come up with the

2138
01:16:46,810 --> 01:16:44,580
discovery some other way and because I

2139
01:16:49,189 --> 01:16:46,820
think it was his combination of you know

2140
01:16:51,169 --> 01:16:49,199
intelligence and curiosity and

2141
01:16:53,750 --> 01:16:51,179
open-mindedness and dedication I'm gonna

2142
01:16:55,970 --> 01:16:53,760
grit all of these things the men that he

2143
01:16:58,550 --> 01:16:55,980
created his own luck in that he took

2144
01:17:00,649 --> 01:16:58,560
that opportunity and ran a bit but if he

2145
01:17:02,149 --> 01:17:00,659
hadn't had that opportunity there might

2146
01:17:04,310 --> 01:17:02,159
have been another one that he would have

2147
01:17:07,910 --> 01:17:04,320
had instead who would have also led to

2148
01:17:11,750 --> 01:17:07,920
some amazing Discovery so you know I do

2149
01:17:13,850 --> 01:17:11,760
think you know it still is within uh

2150
01:17:16,070 --> 01:17:13,860
within our control and you can you can

2151
01:17:18,290 --> 01:17:16,080
maximize your chances you might not be

2152
01:17:20,450 --> 01:17:18,300
if there's no foolproof way to become a

2153
01:17:22,669 --> 01:17:20,460
genius or to be recognized as a genius

2154
01:17:25,189 --> 01:17:22,679
but you can absolutely maximize your

2155
01:17:27,470 --> 01:17:25,199
chances of that by cultivating those

2156
01:17:29,149 --> 01:17:27,480
kinds of traits so one way that it can

2157
01:17:30,950 --> 01:17:29,159
be conceptualized is like yes there is a

2158
01:17:32,270 --> 01:17:30,960
lottery but every time you persevere

2159
01:17:34,490 --> 01:17:32,280
it's like you're playing that Lottery

2160
01:17:35,930 --> 01:17:34,500
again and again and again so yeah is

2161
01:17:38,390 --> 01:17:35,940
that one way or is that incorrect like

2162
01:17:41,030 --> 01:17:38,400
yeah no that's it you have yet you have

2163
01:17:43,430 --> 01:17:41,040
to be in it to win it essentially and

2164
01:17:45,709 --> 01:17:43,440
you can you can be smart about the kind

2165
01:17:47,450 --> 01:17:45,719
of way that you play

2166
01:17:49,430 --> 01:17:47,460
you know book cards that you've been

2167
01:17:51,530 --> 01:17:49,440
given in life essentially and I think

2168
01:17:53,149 --> 01:17:51,540
like we mustn't neglect like all of the

2169
01:17:54,530 --> 01:17:53,159
structural factors that mean it's much

2170
01:17:56,390 --> 01:17:54,540
harder for people of like certain

2171
01:17:58,250 --> 01:17:56,400
backgrounds to succeed where others

2172
01:18:00,110 --> 01:17:58,260
might find it much easier so I'm not

2173
01:18:02,390 --> 01:18:00,120
definitely not discounting the fact that

2174
01:18:04,910 --> 01:18:02,400
like there are structural barriers that

2175
01:18:07,130 --> 01:18:04,920
we need to remove to give people uh

2176
01:18:10,189 --> 01:18:07,140
equal opportunities or more equal

2177
01:18:12,110 --> 01:18:10,199
opportunities but you know given most

2178
01:18:13,729 --> 01:18:12,120
circumstances being the way they are

2179
01:18:16,250 --> 01:18:13,739
there are still things that we can do

2180
01:18:17,990 --> 01:18:16,260
that will maximize our chances that will

2181
01:18:19,970 --> 01:18:18,000
kind of give us a bit more luck in that

2182
01:18:22,850 --> 01:18:19,980
Lottery of Life David what is

2183
01:18:24,649 --> 01:18:22,860
evidence-based wisdom

2184
01:18:27,050 --> 01:18:24,659
um so this is kind of trying to apply

2185
01:18:29,450 --> 01:18:27,060
the same intellectual rigor that we had

2186
01:18:30,950 --> 01:18:29,460
with the study of intelligence to the

2187
01:18:33,470 --> 01:18:30,960
study of wisdom

2188
01:18:36,350 --> 01:18:33,480
um obviously wisdom has been You Know

2189
01:18:38,990 --> 01:18:36,360
spoken about a lot and philosophy but in

2190
01:18:41,270 --> 01:18:39,000
science people had really you know

2191
01:18:43,910 --> 01:18:41,280
ignored ignored the question I avoided

2192
01:18:46,010 --> 01:18:43,920
the question of what makes on what whys

2193
01:18:49,189 --> 01:18:46,020
can we measure it and then this

2194
01:18:51,709 --> 01:18:49,199
researcher called Igor Grossman

2195
01:18:53,990 --> 01:18:51,719
um really attempted to tackle this huge

2196
01:18:56,689 --> 01:18:54,000
problem and he looked at all of the

2197
01:19:00,610 --> 01:18:56,699
philosophical definitions of wisdom and

2198
01:19:04,550 --> 01:19:00,620
he distilled them to uh six different uh

2199
01:19:06,410 --> 01:19:04,560
metacognitive uh kind of tendencies that

2200
01:19:08,450 --> 01:19:06,420
we might have and you know to name a few

2201
01:19:10,910 --> 01:19:08,460
of them as things like intellectual

2202
01:19:13,310 --> 01:19:10,920
wisdom intellectual humility essentially

2203
01:19:16,370 --> 01:19:13,320
you know people since Socrates had

2204
01:19:19,310 --> 01:19:16,380
argued that to be wise you have to have

2205
01:19:22,189 --> 01:19:19,320
a very uh definite knowledge of the

2206
01:19:24,830 --> 01:19:22,199
limits of your of your capabilities and

2207
01:19:26,630 --> 01:19:24,840
to accept when you don't know something

2208
01:19:29,810 --> 01:19:26,640
um it's the ability to reach a

2209
01:19:32,149 --> 01:19:29,820
compromise the ability to look for other

2210
01:19:35,330 --> 01:19:32,159
people's perspectives so you're not just

2211
01:19:37,250 --> 01:19:35,340
kind of myopically focused on your

2212
01:19:39,950 --> 01:19:37,260
particular viewpoint but you're you're

2213
01:19:42,050 --> 01:19:39,960
looking for other people's too so he

2214
01:19:43,790 --> 01:19:42,060
you know gathered these together and

2215
01:19:46,310 --> 01:19:43,800
then he started designing tests that

2216
01:19:49,250 --> 01:19:46,320
would measure them some of these tests

2217
01:19:52,189 --> 01:19:49,260
were quite involved but it would involve

2218
01:19:54,830 --> 01:19:52,199
um people looking at a kind of article

2219
01:19:57,590 --> 01:19:54,840
that might be from a dear Abbey column I

2220
01:20:00,890 --> 01:19:57,600
think like an agonyon color outlining a

2221
01:20:02,270 --> 01:20:00,900
problem or it could be an article about

2222
01:20:05,630 --> 01:20:02,280
the

2223
01:20:08,330 --> 01:20:05,640
Russian invasion of Ukraine and he would

2224
01:20:11,390 --> 01:20:08,340
ask people to talk out loud about what

2225
01:20:13,610 --> 01:20:11,400
they thought of these issues how the

2226
01:20:16,450 --> 01:20:13,620
situations might be resolved potentially

2227
01:20:19,250 --> 01:20:16,460
you know really to kind of talk through

2228
01:20:22,010 --> 01:20:19,260
uh their thinking on these complex

2229
01:20:24,470 --> 01:20:22,020
situations and then psychologists would

2230
01:20:26,450 --> 01:20:24,480
rate how they performed on all of those

2231
01:20:28,850 --> 01:20:26,460
different elements of wisdom like

2232
01:20:30,709 --> 01:20:28,860
intellectual humility did these people

2233
01:20:32,209 --> 01:20:30,719
actually acknowledge that they didn't

2234
01:20:34,010 --> 01:20:32,219
have all the information they needed to

2235
01:20:35,570 --> 01:20:34,020
hand and did they outline what they

2236
01:20:37,669 --> 01:20:35,580
would like to know before coming to a

2237
01:20:40,070 --> 01:20:37,679
conclusion that kind of thing

2238
01:20:43,189 --> 01:20:40,080
uh what he found was that those

2239
01:20:44,990 --> 01:20:43,199
uh those measures actually correlate

2240
01:20:47,930 --> 01:20:45,000
really well with important outcomes in

2241
01:20:50,930 --> 01:20:47,940
life and when it comes to things like uh

2242
01:20:52,370 --> 01:20:50,940
people's emotional well-being uh the

2243
01:20:54,350 --> 01:20:52,380
health you know all of these really

2244
01:20:56,390 --> 01:20:54,360
important things there's a state of

2245
01:20:58,550 --> 01:20:56,400
their relationships the measures of

2246
01:21:01,250 --> 01:20:58,560
wisdom actually came out as being more

2247
01:21:04,970 --> 01:21:01,260
important than uh independent measures

2248
01:21:07,189 --> 01:21:04,980
of IQ that had also taken so it really

2249
01:21:10,430 --> 01:21:07,199
proved that wisdom is something that can

2250
01:21:12,950 --> 01:21:10,440
be measured scientifically and then Igor

2251
01:21:15,350 --> 01:21:12,960
looked at ways to cultivate wisdom to

2252
01:21:18,590 --> 01:21:15,360
make people wiser and one example of

2253
01:21:21,770 --> 01:21:18,600
that which I loved is this uh uh

2254
01:21:23,030 --> 01:21:21,780
phenomenon called self-distancing and

2255
01:21:24,830 --> 01:21:23,040
that is essentially just getting

2256
01:21:27,290 --> 01:21:24,840
yourself to look at a particular

2257
01:21:30,530 --> 01:21:27,300
situation from an outside perspective

2258
01:21:32,930 --> 01:21:30,540
if you're American and you are reasoning

2259
01:21:35,209 --> 01:21:32,940
about the forthcoming elections for

2260
01:21:36,950 --> 01:21:35,219
example rather than just talking about

2261
01:21:38,149 --> 01:21:36,960
the situation from your own perspective

2262
01:21:40,310 --> 01:21:38,159
you might

2263
01:21:43,970 --> 01:21:40,320
consider how someone from Iceland or

2264
01:21:45,110 --> 01:21:43,980
Australia might view the situation

2265
01:21:47,689 --> 01:21:45,120
um if you're talking about a personal

2266
01:21:49,370 --> 01:21:47,699
problem you might imagine instead that

2267
01:21:52,130 --> 01:21:49,380
you were advising a friend with a

2268
01:21:53,209 --> 01:21:52,140
similar problem what he found was that

2269
01:21:55,250 --> 01:21:53,219
this actually

2270
01:21:57,530 --> 01:21:55,260
improves people's scores and wise

2271
01:22:00,229 --> 01:21:57,540
reasoning it actually helps them to

2272
01:22:02,450 --> 01:22:00,239
reason in a more sophisticated way about

2273
01:22:04,790 --> 01:22:02,460
the issues at hand and the reason is

2274
01:22:07,250 --> 01:22:04,800
that it stops us from feeling so

2275
01:22:09,169 --> 01:22:07,260
attached emotionally to the particular

2276
01:22:11,870 --> 01:22:09,179
problem and to our pre-existing

2277
01:22:13,910 --> 01:22:11,880
Viewpoint so it helps us to question our

2278
01:22:16,070 --> 01:22:13,920
assumptions to look at those different

2279
01:22:19,370 --> 01:22:16,080
perspectives that we might not consider

2280
01:22:21,590 --> 01:22:19,380
if we feel totally immersed in the

2281
01:22:23,390 --> 01:22:21,600
situation at hand if we a reasoning from

2282
01:22:25,790 --> 01:22:23,400
the position of an American talking

2283
01:22:28,790 --> 01:22:25,800
about the US election sort of reasoning

2284
01:22:30,830 --> 01:22:28,800
as ourselves about the dissolution of

2285
01:22:33,470 --> 01:22:30,840
our marriage he found that it could be

2286
01:22:36,649 --> 01:22:33,480
very powerful in helping people to be

2287
01:22:38,630 --> 01:22:36,659
more objective more rational wiser about

2288
01:22:40,850 --> 01:22:38,640
the situations that they were describing

2289
01:22:42,950 --> 01:22:40,860
and it's something that we can all do in

2290
01:22:44,689 --> 01:22:42,960
our lives is to just apply this very

2291
01:22:47,209 --> 01:22:44,699
simple technique

2292
01:22:51,350 --> 01:22:47,219
did he come up with a number akin to IQ

2293
01:22:53,330 --> 01:22:51,360
but for wisdom like your WQ no so you

2294
01:22:55,189 --> 01:22:53,340
know he didn't come up with a kind of

2295
01:22:57,770 --> 01:22:55,199
wisdom quotient

2296
01:23:00,470 --> 01:22:57,780
um but you know it was in a way like the

2297
01:23:02,149 --> 01:23:00,480
IQ the intelligence question is a great

2298
01:23:03,950 --> 01:23:02,159
way you know you look there's a

2299
01:23:04,790 --> 01:23:03,960
comparison always a comparison with the

2300
01:23:06,350 --> 01:23:04,800
average

2301
01:23:09,169 --> 01:23:06,360
um so maybe that's something he would

2302
01:23:10,850 --> 01:23:09,179
consider in the future but I think more

2303
01:23:14,510 --> 01:23:10,860
importantly he's really looking up

2304
01:23:16,850 --> 01:23:14,520
anyone could measure their Baseline uh

2305
01:23:18,950 --> 01:23:16,860
kind of wise reasoning score according

2306
01:23:21,110 --> 01:23:18,960
to his different tests and then they

2307
01:23:22,610 --> 01:23:21,120
could try to see an improvement in that

2308
01:23:24,950 --> 01:23:22,620
score so you could at least look at your

2309
01:23:27,110 --> 01:23:24,960
own personal trajectory even if you're

2310
01:23:29,689 --> 01:23:27,120
not trying to compare across the

2311
01:23:31,310 --> 01:23:29,699
population the beauty of the IQ test is

2312
01:23:33,169 --> 01:23:31,320
that it's difficult to fake you can

2313
01:23:36,110 --> 01:23:33,179
practice IQ tests and you can score

2314
01:23:38,209 --> 01:23:36,120
higher but with a survey I imagine with

2315
01:23:39,649 --> 01:23:38,219
a survey like the wisdom tester says Hey

2316
01:23:42,050 --> 01:23:39,659
do you take other people's viewpoints

2317
01:23:43,729 --> 01:23:42,060
into account you could imagine I think

2318
01:23:45,649 --> 01:23:43,739
it's more socially acceptable and wise

2319
01:23:47,450 --> 01:23:45,659
so I'm gonna say yes I I do 5 out of

2320
01:23:49,669 --> 01:23:47,460
five you could imagine that you can

2321
01:23:51,770 --> 01:23:49,679
falsify that information so is there a

2322
01:23:54,470 --> 01:23:51,780
way of constructing a wisdom test that

2323
01:23:57,110 --> 01:23:54,480
takes into account that people may not

2324
01:24:00,490 --> 01:23:57,120
say what is accurate about themselves

2325
01:24:03,350 --> 01:24:00,500
yeah I mean so I think some of eagles

2326
01:24:05,750 --> 01:24:03,360
Tesla questionnaires in the way that you

2327
01:24:07,850 --> 01:24:05,760
describe so self-reported I mean no

2328
01:24:09,410 --> 01:24:07,860
surprisingly people are quite honest and

2329
01:24:11,990 --> 01:24:09,420
self-reported question and so we know

2330
01:24:14,209 --> 01:24:12,000
that from personality questionnaires for

2331
01:24:16,550 --> 01:24:14,219
example but people people's responses

2332
01:24:18,110 --> 01:24:16,560
often do correspond to what their

2333
01:24:19,490 --> 01:24:18,120
friends would say about them so they're

2334
01:24:22,430 --> 01:24:19,500
not always lying although there might be

2335
01:24:24,290 --> 01:24:22,440
a slight bias tools are more positive

2336
01:24:26,450 --> 01:24:24,300
you know attribute

2337
01:24:28,070 --> 01:24:26,460
um but actually in a lot of these tests

2338
01:24:29,990 --> 01:24:28,080
you know they're having to prove that

2339
01:24:32,630 --> 01:24:30,000
they were capable of doing that so if

2340
01:24:34,370 --> 01:24:32,640
they were reasoning about the U.S

2341
01:24:36,350 --> 01:24:34,380
elections they would actually have to

2342
01:24:38,149 --> 01:24:36,360
take someone else's perspective but they

2343
01:24:40,189 --> 01:24:38,159
would actually have to they would have

2344
01:24:42,290 --> 01:24:40,199
to show that kind of integration of what

2345
01:24:44,750 --> 01:24:42,300
a Democrat would think compared to a

2346
01:24:47,090 --> 01:24:44,760
Republican and to balance them and to

2347
01:24:49,010 --> 01:24:47,100
kind of draw connections between the two

2348
01:24:50,689 --> 01:24:49,020
and to look for the ways that there

2349
01:24:53,149 --> 01:24:50,699
might be a compromise on a particular

2350
01:24:55,070 --> 01:24:53,159
political opinion or particular

2351
01:24:56,630 --> 01:24:55,080
political problem and so they're

2352
01:24:58,550 --> 01:24:56,640
actually having shown that having to

2353
01:25:00,770 --> 01:24:58,560
show that they did that it wasn't just

2354
01:25:01,610 --> 01:25:00,780
them saying Oh yeah I'm brilliant at

2355
01:25:03,830 --> 01:25:01,620
this

2356
01:25:06,229 --> 01:25:03,840
um so yeah I think he's he's considered

2357
01:25:08,270 --> 01:25:06,239
that and it does it does seem that

2358
01:25:10,189 --> 01:25:08,280
people's self-reported responses

2359
01:25:13,010 --> 01:25:10,199
correspond with their actual abilities

2360
01:25:14,810 --> 01:25:13,020
to do that and also that even when you

2361
01:25:17,770 --> 01:25:14,820
do things like this self-distancing

2362
01:25:20,750 --> 01:25:17,780
exercise that that's having a real

2363
01:25:23,030 --> 01:25:20,760
impact on what they're doing how they're

2364
01:25:25,070 --> 01:25:23,040
going about their reasoning what are the

2365
01:25:27,950 --> 01:25:25,080
rationality coefficients

2366
01:25:29,750 --> 01:25:27,960
so that was that is research where

2367
01:25:32,450 --> 01:25:29,760
someone has tried to look at a more

2368
01:25:35,450 --> 01:25:32,460
direct comparison to be uh in

2369
01:25:38,570 --> 01:25:35,460
intelligence uh quotient

2370
01:25:40,790 --> 01:25:38,580
um that's where by Keith stanovic who's

2371
01:25:43,250 --> 01:25:40,800
another Canadian researcher you know

2372
01:25:45,530 --> 01:25:43,260
brilliant mind who's really taken the

2373
01:25:47,810 --> 01:25:45,540
work of people like Daniel carderman all

2374
01:25:49,850 --> 01:25:47,820
of these uh cognitive biases that we

2375
01:25:51,709 --> 01:25:49,860
know that exist like the some cost

2376
01:25:54,169 --> 01:25:51,719
fallacy that we mentioned earlier things

2377
01:25:55,490 --> 01:25:54,179
like um temporal discounting which is

2378
01:25:58,490 --> 01:25:55,500
whether you

2379
01:26:01,490 --> 01:25:58,500
are able to overlook a more immediate

2380
01:26:04,010 --> 01:26:01,500
reward something a bigger reward later

2381
01:26:06,890 --> 01:26:04,020
on that kind of thing you know how how

2382
01:26:09,830 --> 01:26:06,900
you fall on that kind of spectrum of

2383
01:26:11,510 --> 01:26:09,840
potential responses for uh you know when

2384
01:26:13,490 --> 01:26:11,520
you're willing to kind of have a cut up

2385
01:26:15,410 --> 01:26:13,500
all of that kind of

2386
01:26:18,410 --> 01:26:15,420
um literature on decision making he's

2387
01:26:20,570 --> 01:26:18,420
really looked at very carefully and uh

2388
01:26:22,610 --> 01:26:20,580
he's shown that there are reliable

2389
01:26:25,430 --> 01:26:22,620
individual differences between people

2390
01:26:27,470 --> 01:26:25,440
that can be measured with tests uh which

2391
01:26:29,030 --> 01:26:27,480
is something that Daniel conman hadn't

2392
01:26:31,370 --> 01:26:29,040
looked at the differences between people

2393
01:26:33,410 --> 01:26:31,380
he'd just shown a general average

2394
01:26:34,850 --> 01:26:33,420
tendency whereas Keith stanovic was

2395
01:26:37,790 --> 01:26:34,860
really looking at are some people

2396
01:26:40,310 --> 01:26:37,800
consistently more susceptible to bias

2397
01:26:43,189 --> 01:26:40,320
than other people and he found that that

2398
01:26:45,830 --> 01:26:43,199
is true some people do tend to suffer

2399
01:26:48,410 --> 01:26:45,840
from all kinds of biases both of us are

2400
01:26:50,629 --> 01:26:48,420
more resilient against biases and then

2401
01:26:53,810 --> 01:26:50,639
he compared that to their IQ scores

2402
01:26:56,570 --> 01:26:53,820
their SAT scores and the U.S education

2403
01:26:58,250 --> 01:26:56,580
system in all of these cases he found

2404
01:27:00,290 --> 01:26:58,260
that there was a correlation with

2405
01:27:02,810 --> 01:27:00,300
measures of intelligence but the

2406
01:27:05,090 --> 01:27:02,820
intelligence alone didn't describe

2407
01:27:06,890 --> 01:27:05,100
people's rationality so what I mean by

2408
01:27:09,229 --> 01:27:06,900
that is you could still have someone who

2409
01:27:12,410 --> 01:27:09,239
is highly intelligent but who scored

2410
01:27:14,750 --> 01:27:12,420
very low on the rationality quotient and

2411
01:27:16,669 --> 01:27:14,760
vice versa did he say what the

2412
01:27:18,830 --> 01:27:16,679
correlation was

2413
01:27:20,570 --> 01:27:18,840
it really depended on what kind of test

2414
01:27:22,970 --> 01:27:20,580
they were using and also it did depend

2415
01:27:25,669 --> 01:27:22,980
on what kind of bias they were looking

2416
01:27:26,510 --> 01:27:25,679
at the Suncoast fallacy

2417
01:27:29,270 --> 01:27:26,520
um

2418
01:27:31,550 --> 01:27:29,280
I believe or temporal discounting I

2419
01:27:33,709 --> 01:27:31,560
believe the correlation was almost zero

2420
01:27:35,689 --> 01:27:33,719
you know like surprisingly like people

2421
01:27:37,669 --> 01:27:35,699
really weren't more rational in those

2422
01:27:38,930 --> 01:27:37,679
kinds of situations that they were

2423
01:27:40,490 --> 01:27:38,940
measuring

2424
01:27:42,770 --> 01:27:40,500
um if they were more intelligent it just

2425
01:27:44,689 --> 01:27:42,780
didn't seem to make a difference so what

2426
01:27:46,910 --> 01:27:44,699
other elements of his rationality

2427
01:27:48,590 --> 01:27:46,920
equation that did depend more on

2428
01:27:50,870 --> 01:27:48,600
intelligence and that tended to be the

2429
01:27:54,350 --> 01:27:50,880
things that I think would be covered in

2430
01:27:56,209 --> 01:27:54,360
academic education so how he also looked

2431
01:27:58,189 --> 01:27:56,219
at things like how you would read

2432
01:28:00,649 --> 01:27:58,199
statistics like whether people are able

2433
01:28:02,570 --> 01:28:00,659
to understand like absolute risk

2434
01:28:04,610 --> 01:28:02,580
relative risk

2435
01:28:06,590 --> 01:28:04,620
um all of that kind of statistical

2436
01:28:09,350 --> 01:28:06,600
reasoning and as you might expect if

2437
01:28:10,669 --> 01:28:09,360
you're you have a higher SAT score you

2438
01:28:12,890 --> 01:28:10,679
probably were paying more attention in

2439
01:28:15,430 --> 01:28:12,900
your maths classes and so you are better

2440
01:28:17,870 --> 01:28:15,440
able when asked to actually

2441
01:28:19,189 --> 01:28:17,880
calculate those different risks those

2442
01:28:20,810 --> 01:28:19,199
are really important elements of

2443
01:28:23,390 --> 01:28:20,820
rationality and actually they can be

2444
01:28:24,890 --> 01:28:23,400
taught which is positive so but yeah

2445
01:28:27,709 --> 01:28:24,900
it's not like intelligence was

2446
01:28:30,290 --> 01:28:27,719
completely unrelated to all elements of

2447
01:28:32,629 --> 01:28:30,300
rationality but certainly for some some

2448
01:28:34,070 --> 01:28:32,639
areas where you would expect that a

2449
01:28:36,169 --> 01:28:34,080
smarter person would just automatically

2450
01:28:38,270 --> 01:28:36,179
make the more rational decision he

2451
01:28:40,010 --> 01:28:38,280
didn't find that at all so he does he

2452
01:28:42,410 --> 01:28:40,020
says it supports this idea but you know

2453
01:28:45,050 --> 01:28:42,420
smart people can make terribly

2454
01:28:47,930 --> 01:28:45,060
irrational decisions and he calls that

2455
01:28:50,090 --> 01:28:47,940
phenomenon discretionalia which he

2456
01:28:52,970 --> 01:28:50,100
compares to dyslexia

2457
01:28:55,010 --> 01:28:52,980
um so dyslexia is the you might have a

2458
01:28:57,590 --> 01:28:55,020
high IQ person who has a particular

2459
01:28:59,990 --> 01:28:57,600
problem with literacy and with reading

2460
01:29:01,850 --> 01:29:00,000
in particular and similarly with

2461
01:29:04,129 --> 01:29:01,860
disrasionalia you might have someone

2462
01:29:06,890 --> 01:29:04,139
with a high IQ who's just really

2463
01:29:08,209 --> 01:29:06,900
irrational they just really struggle to

2464
01:29:11,990 --> 01:29:08,219
come up with

2465
01:29:13,970 --> 01:29:12,000
to read data rationally and logically

2466
01:29:18,110 --> 01:29:13,980
and to weigh off evidence and to come up

2467
01:29:20,629 --> 01:29:18,120
with a conclusion based on that data so

2468
01:29:22,790 --> 01:29:20,639
he yeah he considers this to be a kind

2469
01:29:25,550 --> 01:29:22,800
of societal problem that there needs to

2470
01:29:28,430 --> 01:29:25,560
be targeted with like interventions that

2471
01:29:30,890 --> 01:29:28,440
help to cultivate rationality

2472
01:29:33,290 --> 01:29:30,900
so stanovich's terminology he calls it

2473
01:29:34,970 --> 01:29:33,300
the quotient so it's not coefficients no

2474
01:29:36,590 --> 01:29:34,980
it's the rationale well that's the

2475
01:29:38,570 --> 01:29:36,600
informal name is the rationality

2476
01:29:40,070 --> 01:29:38,580
quotient but yeah his book was called

2477
01:29:42,350 --> 01:29:40,080
the rationality quotient so he's

2478
01:29:44,270 --> 01:29:42,360
definitely promoting this idea like the

2479
01:29:46,370 --> 01:29:44,280
intelligence question yeah and there

2480
01:29:48,169 --> 01:29:46,380
wasn't just one there were several types

2481
01:29:50,330 --> 01:29:48,179
of rationality quotients or there was

2482
01:29:53,330 --> 01:29:50,340
just one like right RQ and that's it not

2483
01:29:54,890 --> 01:29:53,340
RQ underscore one yeah no exactly so

2484
01:29:56,689 --> 01:29:54,900
basically a bit like with IQ test

2485
01:29:59,870 --> 01:29:56,699
actually you break it into kind of um

2486
01:30:01,790 --> 01:29:59,880
stop tests so you you know an IQ you

2487
01:30:04,129 --> 01:30:01,800
might have like the verbal subtest the

2488
01:30:08,510 --> 01:30:04,139
nonverbal reasoning subtest you know um

2489
01:30:10,070 --> 01:30:08,520
lots of different types of uh of

2490
01:30:12,169 --> 01:30:10,080
different problems that it's measuring

2491
01:30:13,669 --> 01:30:12,179
and there's a correlation between all of

2492
01:30:15,950 --> 01:30:13,679
them but actually the correlation

2493
01:30:17,030 --> 01:30:15,960
between one and another might vary so

2494
01:30:20,689 --> 01:30:17,040
you know there's a kind of central

2495
01:30:22,850 --> 01:30:20,699
Factor we say uh which is

2496
01:30:23,870 --> 01:30:22,860
someone's kind of general intelligence

2497
01:30:25,970 --> 01:30:23,880
but

2498
01:30:28,490 --> 01:30:25,980
and if you're better at one you're more

2499
01:30:30,530 --> 01:30:28,500
likely to be better at another cognitive

2500
01:30:32,270 --> 01:30:30,540
task but it doesn't mean that you're

2501
01:30:34,430 --> 01:30:32,280
automatically brilliant to all of them

2502
01:30:35,990 --> 01:30:34,440
if you a brilliant one it's the same

2503
01:30:37,189 --> 01:30:36,000
with rationality that you see a

2504
01:30:39,890 --> 01:30:37,199
correlation between the different

2505
01:30:42,410 --> 01:30:39,900
subtests but actually there's still

2506
01:30:44,510 --> 01:30:42,420
enough variation within a person so you

2507
01:30:47,149 --> 01:30:44,520
might have a particular strength in one

2508
01:30:49,669 --> 01:30:47,159
area of rationality but a weakness in

2509
01:30:52,669 --> 01:30:49,679
another was his conclusion that high IQ

2510
01:30:55,669 --> 01:30:52,679
individuals generally have a slightly

2511
01:30:58,250 --> 01:30:55,679
higher RQ but in particular for certain

2512
01:31:01,070 --> 01:30:58,260
subtypes of RQ they're lower

2513
01:31:02,030 --> 01:31:01,080
yeah that's exactly it and but um but

2514
01:31:07,550 --> 01:31:02,040
even

2515
01:31:11,570 --> 01:31:07,560
IQ individuals you'll have like enough

2516
01:31:12,950 --> 01:31:11,580
variation the RQ rationality is

2517
01:31:16,550 --> 01:31:12,960
something that we should be measuring

2518
01:31:18,709 --> 01:31:16,560
and then cultivating separately from IQ

2519
01:31:20,689 --> 01:31:18,719
and the other kind of academic uh

2520
01:31:23,149 --> 01:31:20,699
disciplines that we look at so he gives

2521
01:31:26,390 --> 01:31:23,159
the example of if you're recruiting you

2522
01:31:28,910 --> 01:31:26,400
know some recruiters do use IQ tests

2523
01:31:31,129 --> 01:31:28,920
still to kind of work out who's the best

2524
01:31:34,070 --> 01:31:31,139
person to employ but they're not really

2525
01:31:35,810 --> 01:31:34,080
measuring accurately rationality and you

2526
01:31:37,550 --> 01:31:35,820
want a rational Workforce really you

2527
01:31:40,490 --> 01:31:37,560
don't want someone who's gonna fall for

2528
01:31:42,050 --> 01:31:40,500
fake news uh fall for [\h__\h] from some

2529
01:31:44,450 --> 01:31:42,060
kind of other company and make a bad

2530
01:31:46,189 --> 01:31:44,460
investment you want a rational Workforce

2531
01:31:48,830 --> 01:31:46,199
So He suggests that actually we should

2532
01:31:51,350 --> 01:31:48,840
be using the rationalis equation as a

2533
01:31:53,209 --> 01:31:51,360
means of selecting candidates and also

2534
01:31:55,669 --> 01:31:53,219
just as a means of identifying who could

2535
01:31:57,290 --> 01:31:55,679
do some training like who needs to learn

2536
01:32:00,530 --> 01:31:57,300
more about maybe

2537
01:32:02,149 --> 01:32:00,540
how to read statistics or these to have

2538
01:32:04,250 --> 01:32:02,159
that awareness raised about things like

2539
01:32:06,350 --> 01:32:04,260
the sunk cost fallacy so they don't fall

2540
01:32:08,750 --> 01:32:06,360
for it in the future

2541
01:32:13,070 --> 01:32:08,760
is there a relationship between

2542
01:32:15,229 --> 01:32:13,080
high IQ and arrogance uh I wouldn't I

2543
01:32:17,149 --> 01:32:15,239
don't know if anyone's looked at it like

2544
01:32:19,610 --> 01:32:17,159
that but Keith stanovic had looked at

2545
01:32:22,490 --> 01:32:19,620
the biased blind spot

2546
01:32:24,890 --> 01:32:22,500
um and that's essentially

2547
01:32:26,810 --> 01:32:24,900
you are someone like you tell them about

2548
01:32:27,830 --> 01:32:26,820
these cognitive biases and then you ask

2549
01:32:29,510 --> 01:32:27,840
them

2550
01:32:32,090 --> 01:32:29,520
do you think you're gonna suffer from

2551
01:32:35,510 --> 01:32:32,100
those Pisces yourself and what he found

2552
01:32:37,550 --> 01:32:35,520
was that people the higher IQs tended to

2553
01:32:40,310 --> 01:32:37,560
think that they were less susceptible

2554
01:32:43,910 --> 01:32:40,320
than the other people

2555
01:32:44,930 --> 01:32:43,920
um they over exaggerated their

2556
01:32:47,510 --> 01:32:44,940
um

2557
01:32:49,790 --> 01:32:47,520
their resilience their protection

2558
01:32:51,890 --> 01:32:49,800
against the biases so they thought they

2559
01:32:53,270 --> 01:32:51,900
were much better than they actually were

2560
01:32:55,490 --> 01:32:53,280
and that was more likely the more

2561
01:32:57,050 --> 01:32:55,500
intelligent they were essentially so in

2562
01:32:58,669 --> 01:32:57,060
that you know in that sense I think the

2563
01:33:00,709 --> 01:32:58,679
biased blind spot is an example of

2564
01:33:02,030 --> 01:33:00,719
intellectual arrogance and it's a

2565
01:33:04,070 --> 01:33:02,040
serious problem because if you don't

2566
01:33:06,830 --> 01:33:04,080
have awareness of the ways that your

2567
01:33:09,169 --> 01:33:06,840
reasoning might uh fail then you're less

2568
01:33:11,090 --> 01:33:09,179
likely to try to account for that how

2569
01:33:13,550 --> 01:33:11,100
can an individual listening slash

2570
01:33:16,310 --> 01:33:13,560
watching this increase their RQ the

2571
01:33:17,390 --> 01:33:16,320
rationality quotient right so this is

2572
01:33:19,970 --> 01:33:17,400
still

2573
01:33:22,490 --> 01:33:19,980
um an area of research but I think like

2574
01:33:25,669 --> 01:33:22,500
those very strong evidence that we can

2575
01:33:29,149 --> 01:33:25,679
improve elements of rationality

2576
01:33:31,250 --> 01:33:29,159
um so you know just learning about these

2577
01:33:32,990 --> 01:33:31,260
biases there are some studies that

2578
01:33:35,270 --> 01:33:33,000
showed that once you have that awareness

2579
01:33:38,149 --> 01:33:35,280
and as long as you make sure that you

2580
01:33:40,310 --> 01:33:38,159
apply that awareness as well that you

2581
01:33:43,490 --> 01:33:40,320
look when you're making a new decision

2582
01:33:45,229 --> 01:33:43,500
but you start to consider the biases

2583
01:33:46,910 --> 01:33:45,239
that might be influencing your decision

2584
01:33:49,310 --> 01:33:46,920
and then try to account for them you

2585
01:33:51,590 --> 01:33:49,320
know that's a learnable skill so that's

2586
01:33:52,970 --> 01:33:51,600
one thing we can look at these books you

2587
01:33:54,709 --> 01:33:52,980
know like the intelligent strap like

2588
01:33:56,330 --> 01:33:54,719
thinking fast and slow you know we can

2589
01:33:58,010 --> 01:33:56,340
learn from those books and then try to

2590
01:33:59,390 --> 01:33:58,020
apply it and that will improve our

2591
01:34:01,850 --> 01:33:59,400
rationality

2592
01:34:04,610 --> 01:34:01,860
um more generally I think like there's

2593
01:34:07,669 --> 01:34:04,620
research looking at critical thinking so

2594
01:34:09,290 --> 01:34:07,679
identifying logical fallacies learning

2595
01:34:14,870 --> 01:34:09,300
to

2596
01:34:15,950 --> 01:34:14,880
reaction so whether we think

2597
01:34:17,870 --> 01:34:15,960
um

2598
01:34:20,209 --> 01:34:17,880
whether intuitively something feels

2599
01:34:22,850 --> 01:34:20,219
right to actually override that and to

2600
01:34:24,530 --> 01:34:22,860
question our assumption and then to look

2601
01:34:26,209 --> 01:34:24,540
for the evidence that contradicts it

2602
01:34:27,709 --> 01:34:26,219
that's something that we can all learn

2603
01:34:29,209 --> 01:34:27,719
to do that's going to reduce your

2604
01:34:32,870 --> 01:34:29,219
susceptibility to something like

2605
01:34:34,970 --> 01:34:32,880
motivated reasoning or the my side bias

2606
01:34:36,590 --> 01:34:34,980
um another useful strategy when you're

2607
01:34:39,350 --> 01:34:36,600
trying to appraise different pieces of

2608
01:34:41,270 --> 01:34:39,360
information is to just try to put

2609
01:34:43,850 --> 01:34:41,280
yourself in an alternative Viewpoint

2610
01:34:46,270 --> 01:34:43,860
where you you question whether you would

2611
01:34:48,830 --> 01:34:46,280
be as convinced by a piece of evidence

2612
01:34:51,890 --> 01:34:48,840
if it's conclusions weren't the opposite

2613
01:34:53,990 --> 01:34:51,900
so it's kind of intricate that but if

2614
01:34:57,530 --> 01:34:54,000
you wanted to

2615
01:34:59,689 --> 01:34:57,540
if you were a republican say and you saw

2616
01:35:01,810 --> 01:34:59,699
a report that supported

2617
01:35:04,970 --> 01:35:01,820
a Democrats

2618
01:35:06,470 --> 01:35:04,980
uh Economic Policy

2619
01:35:07,550 --> 01:35:06,480
um now you might instantly dismiss it

2620
01:35:09,050 --> 01:35:07,560
because it doesn't come to the

2621
01:35:11,810 --> 01:35:09,060
conclusion that you would want it to

2622
01:35:13,430 --> 01:35:11,820
take but what you can do to make sure

2623
01:35:14,390 --> 01:35:13,440
that you're not just dismissing that

2624
01:35:17,930 --> 01:35:14,400
evidence

2625
01:35:20,450 --> 01:35:17,940
unfairly is to stop and think well would

2626
01:35:23,149 --> 01:35:20,460
I have spotted the same Applause in this

2627
01:35:26,510 --> 01:35:23,159
piece in this report if it had actually

2628
01:35:28,430 --> 01:35:26,520
supported a republican Viewpoint instead

2629
01:35:30,470 --> 01:35:28,440
um that's just one example but it's very

2630
01:35:31,910 --> 01:35:30,480
much just trying to to check that you're

2631
01:35:33,709 --> 01:35:31,920
even-handed in the way that you're

2632
01:35:36,350 --> 01:35:33,719
applying your critical thinking skills

2633
01:35:38,629 --> 01:35:36,360
in the much earlier example of Sir

2634
01:35:41,689 --> 01:35:38,639
Arthur Conan Doyle and the Paranormal

2635
01:35:45,169 --> 01:35:41,699
how does one know that what he was doing

2636
01:35:46,790 --> 01:35:45,179
was in fact false so one way is we say

2637
01:35:48,709 --> 01:35:46,800
well the scientific consensus is so

2638
01:35:50,450 --> 01:35:48,719
what's up but then my issue with that is

2639
01:35:52,250 --> 01:35:50,460
that there's a beautiful study in your

2640
01:35:55,310 --> 01:35:52,260
book which I love I'm gonna start to

2641
01:35:57,169 --> 01:35:55,320
quote about if you give a test on gun

2642
01:36:00,530 --> 01:35:57,179
violence to people who are conservative

2643
01:36:02,270 --> 01:36:00,540
and liberal and subtle reasoning shows

2644
01:36:04,729 --> 01:36:02,280
that the gun violence in this example

2645
01:36:06,770 --> 01:36:04,739
the laws that are for gun control end up

2646
01:36:08,330 --> 01:36:06,780
causing more gun violence but you have

2647
01:36:10,430 --> 01:36:08,340
to be extremely careful with your math

2648
01:36:11,810 --> 01:36:10,440
in order to come to that conclusion that

2649
01:36:13,910 --> 01:36:11,820
the conservatives were more likely to

2650
01:36:15,410 --> 01:36:13,920
find that loophole or the not trivial

2651
01:36:16,850 --> 01:36:15,420
reasoning in order to get to that

2652
01:36:18,350 --> 01:36:16,860
conclusion and the Liberals were more

2653
01:36:21,410 --> 01:36:18,360
likely to say oh yeah gun control

2654
01:36:23,330 --> 01:36:21,420
clearly reduces gun crime and then vice

2655
01:36:25,490 --> 01:36:23,340
versa so then that made me think okay

2656
01:36:28,490 --> 01:36:25,500
well if we ever appeal to Scientific

2657
01:36:31,070 --> 01:36:28,500
consensus we have to wait for political

2658
01:36:33,169 --> 01:36:31,080
leaning and the majority of scientists

2659
01:36:35,390 --> 01:36:33,179
are liberal like 90 percent are liberal

2660
01:36:38,090 --> 01:36:35,400
their studies on this so then do we wait

2661
01:36:39,530 --> 01:36:38,100
consensus by that how do we do that so

2662
01:36:41,990 --> 01:36:39,540
that's my issue because there are so

2663
01:36:43,790 --> 01:36:42,000
many aspects of this world of the themes

2664
01:36:45,950 --> 01:36:43,800
that I try to investigate in theories of

2665
01:36:48,229 --> 01:36:45,960
everything that I used to just dismiss

2666
01:36:50,330 --> 01:36:48,239
and disparage like near-death

2667
01:36:53,629 --> 01:36:50,340
experiences or connecting Consciousness

2668
01:36:55,189 --> 01:36:53,639
with quantum mechanics or even UFOs also

2669
01:36:57,290 --> 01:36:55,199
I was looking into the placebo effect

2670
01:36:59,450 --> 01:36:57,300
whereas prior I thought that it was just

2671
01:37:01,550 --> 01:36:59,460
a measly effect like a bit of pain

2672
01:37:03,290 --> 01:37:01,560
relief I didn't think it had much Merit

2673
01:37:04,790 --> 01:37:03,300
to it I'm not saying that I've come to

2674
01:37:07,430 --> 01:37:04,800
any conclusion nothing like that but

2675
01:37:09,050 --> 01:37:07,440
it's not inconsequentially dismissed at

2676
01:37:10,490 --> 01:37:09,060
least not for me I find that there's

2677
01:37:11,450 --> 01:37:10,500
something there or there could be

2678
01:37:13,010 --> 01:37:11,460
something there there are people like

2679
01:37:13,850 --> 01:37:13,020
Penrose who Nobel Prize when they're

2680
01:37:15,410 --> 01:37:13,860
dealing with quantum mechanics

2681
01:37:17,990 --> 01:37:15,420
consciousness this is all what I would

2682
01:37:19,310 --> 01:37:18,000
say is woo prior I got this sense from

2683
01:37:20,990 --> 01:37:19,320
your book and it could be incorrect I

2684
01:37:22,910 --> 01:37:21,000
got the sense of a bit of condescension

2685
01:37:24,709 --> 01:37:22,920
when the word paranormal was mentioned

2686
01:37:26,270 --> 01:37:24,719
or aliens or UFOs and listening to that

2687
01:37:28,189 --> 01:37:26,280
thinking okay how was that made with

2688
01:37:30,290 --> 01:37:28,199
appeal to Scientific consensus how does

2689
01:37:32,930 --> 01:37:30,300
that work when there's already political

2690
01:37:35,870 --> 01:37:32,940
biases let alone other biases that maybe

2691
01:37:37,729 --> 01:37:35,880
the majority of scientists have so how

2692
01:37:39,290 --> 01:37:37,739
do we weight that so that's all what I'm

2693
01:37:41,209 --> 01:37:39,300
thinking so please help me through that

2694
01:37:42,830 --> 01:37:41,219
what are your thoughts on that yeah I

2695
01:37:44,570 --> 01:37:42,840
mean so first of all let's say you know

2696
01:37:47,090 --> 01:37:44,580
the quantum theory of Consciousness I

2697
01:37:49,729 --> 01:37:47,100
actually think is a totally valid but

2698
01:37:52,189 --> 01:37:49,739
real Consciousness I don't think it's um

2699
01:37:53,990 --> 01:37:52,199
well I think it's unproven but I think

2700
01:37:56,930 --> 01:37:54,000
lots of areas of Consciousness are also

2701
01:37:59,629 --> 01:37:56,940
improving so it's like it deserves you

2702
01:38:00,590 --> 01:37:59,639
know considerable studying to be taken

2703
01:38:02,390 --> 01:38:00,600
seriously

2704
01:38:04,490 --> 01:38:02,400
um so I definitely think you know there

2705
01:38:05,750 --> 01:38:04,500
are some things that we can dismiss too

2706
01:38:11,330 --> 01:38:05,760
easily

2707
01:38:15,649 --> 01:38:13,669
mean that's a tough one because it you

2708
01:38:18,830 --> 01:38:15,659
know I have to accept that my own biases

2709
01:38:20,390 --> 01:38:18,840
could be kind of shining through that I

2710
01:38:21,350 --> 01:38:20,400
mean I would say there have been lots of

2711
01:38:24,530 --> 01:38:21,360
good

2712
01:38:27,550 --> 01:38:24,540
studies carefully controlled studies uh

2713
01:38:32,030 --> 01:38:27,560
trying to detect paranormal phenomena

2714
01:38:34,790 --> 01:38:32,040
and I think most scientists even

2715
01:38:38,810 --> 01:38:34,800
if they believe in the Paranormal would

2716
01:38:44,930 --> 01:38:41,270
um setup of the experiments as being

2717
01:38:46,189 --> 01:38:44,940
scientifically valid and um you look at

2718
01:38:48,050 --> 01:38:46,199
the outcomes and you look at the

2719
01:38:51,470 --> 01:38:48,060
outcomes of multiple experiments through

2720
01:38:53,450 --> 01:38:51,480
material analyzes and you find that the

2721
01:38:56,689 --> 01:38:53,460
effect size

2722
01:39:00,110 --> 01:38:56,699
vanishes to zero which is why

2723
01:39:01,669 --> 01:39:00,120
even if I would be so basically to

2724
01:39:04,490 --> 01:39:01,679
calibrate my confidence I would never

2725
01:39:06,770 --> 01:39:04,500
want to dismiss outer pan something like

2726
01:39:08,330 --> 01:39:06,780
a paranormal phenomena

2727
01:39:10,250 --> 01:39:08,340
I would never want to say it's

2728
01:39:12,050 --> 01:39:10,260
absolutely impossible but I would say

2729
01:39:13,810 --> 01:39:12,060
given the evidence that we've got from

2730
01:39:16,370 --> 01:39:13,820
all of these

2731
01:39:18,470 --> 01:39:16,380
experiments that I think have been well

2732
01:39:20,510 --> 01:39:18,480
conducted it's you know maybe not

2733
01:39:21,970 --> 01:39:20,520
dismissing the possibility there could

2734
01:39:24,050 --> 01:39:21,980
always be another experiment that's

2735
01:39:25,610 --> 01:39:24,060
someone's profound like an even better

2736
01:39:27,890 --> 01:39:25,620
way of testing for a potential

2737
01:39:29,810 --> 01:39:27,900
paranormal phenomena and then maybe that

2738
01:39:32,149 --> 01:39:29,820
would show that it does exist and we can

2739
01:39:34,250 --> 01:39:32,159
always keep our mind open to that but I

2740
01:39:36,229 --> 01:39:34,260
think until that experiment comes along

2741
01:39:39,050 --> 01:39:36,239
we have to kind of look at the balance

2742
01:39:40,550 --> 01:39:39,060
of the evidence today that's my uh view

2743
01:39:42,169 --> 01:39:40,560
of that

2744
01:39:44,570 --> 01:39:42,179
um

2745
01:39:46,729 --> 01:39:44,580
I don't I think I think like yeah I

2746
01:39:48,830 --> 01:39:46,739
think this is where like we need teams

2747
01:39:51,110 --> 01:39:48,840
of people to collaborate who come from

2748
01:39:53,750 --> 01:39:51,120
lots of different backgrounds and that's

2749
01:39:55,490 --> 01:39:53,760
really the best way forward and so you

2750
01:39:57,229 --> 01:39:55,500
know maybe with some of the existing

2751
01:40:00,110 --> 01:39:57,239
experiments you say oh well that was

2752
01:40:02,629 --> 01:40:00,120
done by like a skeptic so they'd set it

2753
01:40:04,270 --> 01:40:02,639
up to not be true but what I think you

2754
01:40:06,050 --> 01:40:04,280
should do is have like a

2755
01:40:09,229 --> 01:40:06,060
pre-registration which is really

2756
01:40:11,750 --> 01:40:09,239
fashionable in science now and across a

2757
01:40:14,810 --> 01:40:11,760
big collaboration through multiple Labs

2758
01:40:17,090 --> 01:40:14,820
you all set up in advance the

2759
01:40:19,970 --> 01:40:17,100
experiments that you agree would show

2760
01:40:21,770 --> 01:40:19,980
the effect that you want to prove you

2761
01:40:23,450 --> 01:40:21,780
gather all the data is all kind of

2762
01:40:25,910 --> 01:40:23,460
anonymized it's all analyzed

2763
01:40:29,030 --> 01:40:25,920
independently you do you've already

2764
01:40:30,770 --> 01:40:29,040
agreed on the statistical analyzes and

2765
01:40:33,050 --> 01:40:30,780
then you look at the

2766
01:40:35,570 --> 01:40:33,060
you know you you kind of crunch the

2767
01:40:37,430 --> 01:40:35,580
numbers you find the results and then

2768
01:40:40,070 --> 01:40:37,440
because you've already tried to account

2769
01:40:43,010 --> 01:40:40,080
for all of your biases in advance

2770
01:40:44,870 --> 01:40:43,020
you have to kind of accept the result

2771
01:40:47,090 --> 01:40:44,880
that comes out now that actually was

2772
01:40:48,530 --> 01:40:47,100
done with tests of precognition or

2773
01:40:50,629 --> 01:40:48,540
paranormal phenomena where you believe

2774
01:40:52,550 --> 01:40:50,639
that people can kind of sense the future

2775
01:40:53,270 --> 01:40:52,560
and when those

2776
01:40:56,890 --> 01:40:53,280
um

2777
01:40:59,090 --> 01:40:56,900
uh predetermined studies were conducted

2778
01:41:01,490 --> 01:40:59,100
pre-registered studies were conducted

2779
01:41:04,910 --> 01:41:01,500
actually found you know they didn't find

2780
01:41:06,950 --> 01:41:04,920
the effect uh of that hypothesis they

2781
01:41:09,050 --> 01:41:06,960
didn't find that there was a paranormal

2782
01:41:11,330 --> 01:41:09,060
phenomena so that's why with that

2783
01:41:13,550 --> 01:41:11,340
particular case I would be very

2784
01:41:15,250 --> 01:41:13,560
skeptical that there is one because you

2785
01:41:17,629 --> 01:41:15,260
know one of the best studies today

2786
01:41:19,250 --> 01:41:17,639
didn't find it but I think that's the

2787
01:41:21,229 --> 01:41:19,260
kind of collaboration that we need where

2788
01:41:23,209 --> 01:41:21,239
you get people of different beliefs

2789
01:41:25,850 --> 01:41:23,219
working together by agreeing on a setup

2790
01:41:28,490 --> 01:41:25,860
where everyone would be convinced by the

2791
01:41:30,649 --> 01:41:28,500
outcome whatever that may be

2792
01:41:32,750 --> 01:41:30,659
um and then you you do the experiment

2793
01:41:34,729 --> 01:41:32,760
and you you kind of have just have to

2794
01:41:36,709 --> 01:41:34,739
accept that like the results that come

2795
01:41:38,510 --> 01:41:36,719
out that aren't a result of bias they're

2796
01:41:40,189 --> 01:41:38,520
a result of the best science you could

2797
01:41:42,050 --> 01:41:40,199
do at that particular time

2798
01:41:45,410 --> 01:41:42,060
have you looked into the studies of

2799
01:41:47,990 --> 01:41:45,420
Rupert sheldrake or Dean Rayden

2800
01:41:51,050 --> 01:41:48,000
uh no I haven't I can't say I have been

2801
01:41:52,070 --> 01:41:51,060
like a huge amount of detail um I I

2802
01:41:53,689 --> 01:41:52,080
think actually I did look into

2803
01:41:55,250 --> 01:41:53,699
sheldropes but I'm afraid I have

2804
01:41:58,070 --> 01:41:55,260
forgotten that

2805
01:42:00,410 --> 01:41:58,080
um the details of that but yeah

2806
01:42:01,790 --> 01:42:00,420
I mean obviously he's a huge name but

2807
01:42:03,350 --> 01:42:01,800
you know that I think that's what we

2808
01:42:04,910 --> 01:42:03,360
have to accept as well is that we can't

2809
01:42:08,149 --> 01:42:04,920
just rely on someone's previous

2810
01:42:10,970 --> 01:42:08,159
credentials but we have to be very

2811
01:42:13,750 --> 01:42:10,980
specific about the outcomes you know of

2812
01:42:15,950 --> 01:42:13,760
the the quality of the evidence itself

2813
01:42:17,090 --> 01:42:15,960
independently of who kind of arranged it

2814
01:42:19,970 --> 01:42:17,100
and that's why it's important to have

2815
01:42:21,530 --> 01:42:19,980
these teams of people who come from lots

2816
01:42:23,390 --> 01:42:21,540
of different perspectives to kind of

2817
01:42:26,149 --> 01:42:23,400
cancel out each other's biases

2818
01:42:27,890 --> 01:42:26,159
potentially what else would be I'm

2819
01:42:30,410 --> 01:42:27,900
struggling here to find an issue that's

2820
01:42:32,030 --> 01:42:30,420
not climate change that is scientific

2821
01:42:33,770 --> 01:42:32,040
that has a huge divide between

2822
01:42:35,270 --> 01:42:33,780
conservatives and liberals okay I can

2823
01:42:37,070 --> 01:42:35,280
just stick with climate change I'm not a

2824
01:42:39,229 --> 01:42:37,080
climate denier nor acceptor like I

2825
01:42:41,149 --> 01:42:39,239
mentioned anytime I look into any Theory

2826
01:42:43,189 --> 01:42:41,159
I just find flaws and I'm just

2827
01:42:45,410 --> 01:42:43,199
completely befuddled and adult and

2828
01:42:47,870 --> 01:42:45,420
unassured but anyway the point is that

2829
01:42:49,850 --> 01:42:47,880
when it comes to an issue where we make

2830
01:42:52,129 --> 01:42:49,860
an appeal to Scientific consensus but

2831
01:42:54,530 --> 01:42:52,139
it's a politically charged issue how do

2832
01:42:57,229 --> 01:42:54,540
we deal with the political leaning of

2833
01:42:59,030 --> 01:42:57,239
the scientists going into it need to be

2834
01:43:01,609 --> 01:42:59,040
taken into a account and you need to

2835
01:43:03,169 --> 01:43:01,619
somehow re-weight the results I don't

2836
01:43:04,790 --> 01:43:03,179
know how to do that and I don't know if

2837
01:43:06,169 --> 01:43:04,800
that's the case in climate change and I

2838
01:43:07,970 --> 01:43:06,179
don't want to pick a particularly

2839
01:43:09,770 --> 01:43:07,980
charged topic like climate change

2840
01:43:10,910 --> 01:43:09,780
because like I mentioned I'm just not

2841
01:43:12,709 --> 01:43:10,920
interested I'm not trying to cause any

2842
01:43:14,689 --> 01:43:12,719
controversy here so I'm trying to find

2843
01:43:16,490 --> 01:43:14,699
another one but you get the idea so how

2844
01:43:18,229 --> 01:43:16,500
do we deal with that you mentioned that

2845
01:43:19,550 --> 01:43:18,239
we need to have teams of people who are

2846
01:43:21,830 --> 01:43:19,560
competing against one another from

2847
01:43:23,450 --> 01:43:21,840
various backgrounds but in absence of

2848
01:43:26,209 --> 01:43:23,460
that what do we do

2849
01:43:28,850 --> 01:43:26,219
well I mean I think with climate change

2850
01:43:31,370 --> 01:43:28,860
you could have meaningful debates on the

2851
01:43:35,090 --> 01:43:32,870
um

2852
01:43:38,209 --> 01:43:35,100
so I mean the problem of climate change

2853
01:43:42,050 --> 01:43:38,219
very much like the problem with proving

2854
01:43:44,390 --> 01:43:42,060
that cigarette smoke causes cancer is

2855
01:43:47,030 --> 01:43:44,400
that it's very difficult to actually do

2856
01:43:49,550 --> 01:43:47,040
causal tests of this and I think that

2857
01:43:52,189 --> 01:43:49,560
ultimately that is where the controversy

2858
01:43:54,169 --> 01:43:52,199
lies it's why people who don't believe

2859
01:43:55,970 --> 01:43:54,179
in climate change could always say you

2860
01:43:57,530 --> 01:43:55,980
know we're only viewing correlations and

2861
01:43:59,689 --> 01:43:57,540
that maybe there's another pact to

2862
01:44:01,490 --> 01:43:59,699
driving the rise in temperatures which

2863
01:44:02,810 --> 01:44:01,500
is very difficult to denial but some

2864
01:44:04,790 --> 01:44:02,820
people do

2865
01:44:07,490 --> 01:44:04,800
um similarly with cigarette smoke

2866
01:44:09,350 --> 01:44:07,500
tobacco companies

2867
01:44:12,530 --> 01:44:09,360
um had always said well we've never you

2868
01:44:15,830 --> 01:44:12,540
know we haven't tested done a controlled

2869
01:44:17,689 --> 01:44:15,840
trial where you have people without uh

2870
01:44:19,850 --> 01:44:17,699
randomly of who you're giving some

2871
01:44:22,250 --> 01:44:19,860
cigarette smoke from the age of trendy

2872
01:44:23,990 --> 01:44:22,260
you'll and some about they want to take

2873
01:44:25,790 --> 01:44:24,000
a set of planets put humans on a set

2874
01:44:29,870 --> 01:44:25,800
exactly you can't you couldn't do that

2875
01:44:32,510 --> 01:44:29,880
and it was a cause for controversy and

2876
01:44:35,689 --> 01:44:32,520
it allowed tobacco Industries to deny

2877
01:44:38,090 --> 01:44:35,699
the you know this kind of causal link

2878
01:44:40,010 --> 01:44:38,100
that I think we now you'd be very

2879
01:44:42,290 --> 01:44:40,020
strange if you denied the link between

2880
01:44:43,310 --> 01:44:42,300
smoking and cancer and it's the same

2881
01:44:45,050 --> 01:44:43,320
with

2882
01:44:48,609 --> 01:44:45,060
um climate change we don't have like a

2883
01:44:51,890 --> 01:44:48,619
separate planet where we can set up

2884
01:44:55,010 --> 01:44:51,900
a coal or you know Carbon fueled

2885
01:44:56,930 --> 01:44:55,020
Industries for centuries to then check

2886
01:44:59,510 --> 01:44:56,940
the effects on the climate so you know

2887
01:45:01,910 --> 01:44:59,520
that is a big issue and we do have to

2888
01:45:03,350 --> 01:45:01,920
look at ways around that now my

2889
01:45:06,350 --> 01:45:03,360
impression from looking into the

2890
01:45:08,629 --> 01:45:06,360
evidence has been that multiple lines of

2891
01:45:10,970 --> 01:45:08,639
evidence from lots of different sources

2892
01:45:13,970 --> 01:45:10,980
does all suggest that there is this

2893
01:45:16,189 --> 01:45:13,980
strong link between carbon emissions and

2894
01:45:18,410 --> 01:45:16,199
climate change and that actually we have

2895
01:45:20,570 --> 01:45:18,420
you know with the greenhouse effect we

2896
01:45:22,910 --> 01:45:20,580
have a very well understood mechanism

2897
01:45:24,290 --> 01:45:22,920
and that there's uncertainty absolutely

2898
01:45:27,350 --> 01:45:24,300
we need to acknowledge there's

2899
01:45:29,570 --> 01:45:27,360
considerable uncertainty with the

2900
01:45:32,750 --> 01:45:29,580
size of the effects that we're going to

2901
01:45:34,550 --> 01:45:32,760
see so the models that scientists are

2902
01:45:36,410 --> 01:45:34,560
using climate scientists are using a

2903
01:45:38,930 --> 01:45:36,420
very honest about you know the best and

2904
01:45:41,090 --> 01:45:38,940
the worst case scenarios and there's you

2905
01:45:44,570 --> 01:45:41,100
know a difference between them

2906
01:45:45,770 --> 01:45:44,580
um but yeah like save from doing that

2907
01:45:48,229 --> 01:45:45,780
kind of

2908
01:45:49,729 --> 01:45:48,239
absurd experiment I think you know that

2909
01:45:54,530 --> 01:45:49,739
is going to be an issue to kind of

2910
01:45:56,689 --> 01:45:54,540
result the uh the question and I don't

2911
01:45:58,790 --> 01:45:56,699
have an answer for doing that you can't

2912
01:46:00,950 --> 01:45:58,800
it does have to be kind of what weight

2913
01:46:03,290 --> 01:46:00,960
you give to the different lines of

2914
01:46:05,510 --> 01:46:03,300
evidence I think it's can sometimes help

2915
01:46:08,390 --> 01:46:05,520
to look at people who have changed

2916
01:46:10,430 --> 01:46:08,400
opinion from one side to the other and

2917
01:46:11,450 --> 01:46:10,440
to look at the reasons for why they've

2918
01:46:12,050 --> 01:46:11,460
done that

2919
01:46:13,850 --> 01:46:12,060
um

2920
01:46:16,189 --> 01:46:13,860
I think what I've been interested in

2921
01:46:18,109 --> 01:46:16,199
psychologically is also how sometimes

2922
01:46:20,270 --> 01:46:18,119
you can

2923
01:46:22,669 --> 01:46:20,280
what happens when you try to overcome

2924
01:46:24,709 --> 01:46:22,679
the look for psychological ways to

2925
01:46:27,550 --> 01:46:24,719
overcome that motivated reasoning that

2926
01:46:31,129 --> 01:46:27,560
comes from people's initial political

2927
01:46:31,790 --> 01:46:31,139
standpoints so things like when you

2928
01:46:34,490 --> 01:46:31,800
um

2929
01:46:36,410 --> 01:46:34,500
try to cultivate their curiosity or you

2930
01:46:38,390 --> 01:46:36,420
create a kind of safe space for them to

2931
01:46:41,450 --> 01:46:38,400
talk where they don't have to fear being

2932
01:46:43,609 --> 01:46:41,460
judged for their political Viewpoint

2933
01:46:45,050 --> 01:46:43,619
um you know what conclusions did they

2934
01:46:46,729 --> 01:46:45,060
come to when they look at the evidence

2935
01:46:48,229 --> 01:46:46,739
when they've been given those

2936
01:46:50,570 --> 01:46:48,239
opportunities

2937
01:46:52,790 --> 01:46:50,580
um I think those are some you know those

2938
01:46:54,890 --> 01:46:52,800
are the things that we can be doing

2939
01:46:56,629 --> 01:46:54,900
um but yeah it's a huge problem and I

2940
01:46:59,270 --> 01:46:56,639
think it is one reason that the

2941
01:47:02,510 --> 01:46:59,280
intelligence trap is so such a serious

2942
01:47:04,790 --> 01:47:02,520
problem to consider is because like you

2943
01:47:06,350 --> 01:47:04,800
as an enlightened Society it's really

2944
01:47:08,570 --> 01:47:06,360
worrying that you can have such

2945
01:47:11,209 --> 01:47:08,580
Divergent views

2946
01:47:13,370 --> 01:47:11,219
given the evidence given the same

2947
01:47:15,350 --> 01:47:13,380
evidence that people even highly

2948
01:47:18,050 --> 01:47:15,360
intelligent Highly Educated people can

2949
01:47:19,970 --> 01:47:18,060
come to such polarized viewpoints I

2950
01:47:21,770 --> 01:47:19,980
don't have this Solution that's why I'm

2951
01:47:24,350 --> 01:47:21,780
interested in the intelligent strap and

2952
01:47:26,390 --> 01:47:24,360
how on both sides we can reduce those

2953
01:47:28,790 --> 01:47:26,400
biases so we can try to get people to be

2954
01:47:32,090 --> 01:47:28,800
looking at the evidence and the most

2955
01:47:35,450 --> 01:47:32,100
rational way possible

2956
01:47:37,790 --> 01:47:35,460
what is functional stupidity

2957
01:47:40,250 --> 01:47:37,800
um that is where companies kind of

2958
01:47:43,250 --> 01:47:40,260
create stupidity within the workforce

2959
01:47:43,850 --> 01:47:43,260
due to their corporate culture

2960
01:47:46,609 --> 01:47:43,860
um

2961
01:47:50,330 --> 01:47:46,619
so you know there's lots of reasons for

2962
01:47:53,570 --> 01:47:50,340
that one uh potential reason is simply

2963
01:47:55,490 --> 01:47:53,580
but people uh simply that you have this

2964
01:47:57,590 --> 01:47:55,500
kind of culture of Relentless positivity

2965
01:48:01,310 --> 01:47:57,600
and you don't really

2966
01:48:02,689 --> 01:48:01,320
allow people to express doubt or

2967
01:48:04,850 --> 01:48:02,699
criticism

2968
01:48:07,550 --> 01:48:04,860
um so a company might say they only want

2969
01:48:10,250 --> 01:48:07,560
Solutions not problems

2970
01:48:12,290 --> 01:48:10,260
um that kind of issue and we saw you

2971
01:48:14,629 --> 01:48:12,300
know in the book I talk about the

2972
01:48:15,410 --> 01:48:14,639
Deepwater Horizon

2973
01:48:18,530 --> 01:48:15,420
um

2974
01:48:20,450 --> 01:48:18,540
oil spell the Fall Down full of knock

2975
01:48:22,310 --> 01:48:20,460
here you know all of these examples

2976
01:48:24,410 --> 01:48:22,320
where companies hadn't been allowing

2977
01:48:27,410 --> 01:48:24,420
their employees to think critically

2978
01:48:29,570 --> 01:48:27,420
about the problems that they were facing

2979
01:48:30,890 --> 01:48:29,580
um so that you had this emergent group

2980
01:48:31,490 --> 01:48:30,900
thing

2981
01:48:33,590 --> 01:48:31,500
um

2982
01:48:35,510 --> 01:48:33,600
problems were emerging but no one was

2983
01:48:38,810 --> 01:48:35,520
taking notice of them or caring about

2984
01:48:40,609 --> 01:48:38,820
them and So eventually uh you had these

2985
01:48:43,189 --> 01:48:40,619
disasters that could have been avoided

2986
01:48:45,649 --> 01:48:43,199
but each intelligent member of the

2987
01:48:47,870 --> 01:48:45,659
workforce was just doing a narrow range

2988
01:48:49,790 --> 01:48:47,880
of tasks and they were ignoring all of

2989
01:48:51,410 --> 01:48:49,800
the warning signs around them what were

2990
01:48:53,689 --> 01:48:51,420
some of the solutions in order to combat

2991
01:48:57,530 --> 01:48:53,699
the functional stupidity

2992
01:48:58,669 --> 01:48:57,540
uh I mean one is to cultivate within the

2993
01:49:01,669 --> 01:48:58,679
workforce

2994
01:49:04,910 --> 01:49:01,679
um a culture of disagreement so actually

2995
01:49:06,709 --> 01:49:04,920
allowing people to even at the lowest

2996
01:49:09,770 --> 01:49:06,719
levels of the corporate hierarchy

2997
01:49:11,390 --> 01:49:09,780
allowing them to kind of raise the hand

2998
01:49:12,950 --> 01:49:11,400
and to say that they think there's a

2999
01:49:15,950 --> 01:49:12,960
problem that's occurring if someone had

3000
01:49:17,990 --> 01:49:15,960
done that with deep water Horizon if um

3001
01:49:20,510 --> 01:49:18,000
the engineers had said that they saw all

3002
01:49:23,090 --> 01:49:20,520
of these anomalies in the processes that

3003
01:49:25,910 --> 01:49:23,100
were going on within the rig that could

3004
01:49:27,770 --> 01:49:25,920
have been prevented similarly with Nokia

3005
01:49:29,570 --> 01:49:27,780
um just to recap you know with Nokia

3006
01:49:31,729 --> 01:49:29,580
they were trying to develop a smartphone

3007
01:49:34,070 --> 01:49:31,739
but they kept on failing to meet their

3008
01:49:36,290 --> 01:49:34,080
deadlines until Apple had come up with

3009
01:49:38,330 --> 01:49:36,300
the amazing iPhone that just like swept

3010
01:49:39,649 --> 01:49:38,340
them out of the market you know a lot of

3011
01:49:41,330 --> 01:49:39,659
the employees were really worried about

3012
01:49:43,910 --> 01:49:41,340
what was going on they had lots of ideas

3013
01:49:44,570 --> 01:49:43,920
but though I've been listened to

3014
01:49:46,310 --> 01:49:44,580
um

3015
01:49:49,189 --> 01:49:46,320
they weren't allowed to kind of raise

3016
01:49:50,629 --> 01:49:49,199
their problems about their workflow and

3017
01:49:52,550 --> 01:49:50,639
so you want to avoid that you want to

3018
01:49:54,229 --> 01:49:52,560
give people the opportunity to disgrive

3019
01:49:56,750 --> 01:49:54,239
their boss and for them to not be

3020
01:49:58,490 --> 01:49:56,760
punished you want those messages to then

3021
01:50:00,950 --> 01:49:58,500
go up the hierarchy and to reach the

3022
01:50:02,629 --> 01:50:00,960
people at the top the concept of

3023
01:50:04,729 --> 01:50:02,639
functional stupidity as well as the

3024
01:50:06,649 --> 01:50:04,739
anecdote the ant the antidotes were

3025
01:50:08,870 --> 01:50:06,659
developed in the vein of industrial and

3026
01:50:10,970 --> 01:50:08,880
organizational psychology so I'm curious

3027
01:50:12,770 --> 01:50:10,980
how does one apply this to an individual

3028
01:50:13,450 --> 01:50:12,780
mind

3029
01:50:16,310 --> 01:50:13,460
um

3030
01:50:18,350 --> 01:50:16,320
so I think uh with the intelligence

3031
01:50:20,090 --> 01:50:18,360
strap in general you know we have to

3032
01:50:22,970 --> 01:50:20,100
first of all

3033
01:50:24,229 --> 01:50:22,980
look at our intellectual humility as one

3034
01:50:24,770 --> 01:50:24,239
of those

3035
01:50:27,350 --> 01:50:24,780
um

3036
01:50:29,990 --> 01:50:27,360
elements that were so important for the

3037
01:50:32,750 --> 01:50:30,000
measures of uh evidence-based wisdom

3038
01:50:34,910 --> 01:50:32,760
that we discussed and on an individual

3039
01:50:37,430 --> 01:50:34,920
Viewpoint we have to

3040
01:50:39,290 --> 01:50:37,440
feel free to accept when we're wrong

3041
01:50:42,649 --> 01:50:39,300
about something or am I uncertain about

3042
01:50:47,149 --> 01:50:42,659
something and to not feel so defensive

3043
01:50:49,669 --> 01:50:47,159
that we deny that possibility

3044
01:50:52,070 --> 01:50:49,679
um we have to cultivate our curiosity so

3045
01:50:55,129 --> 01:50:52,080
allowing ourselves to look into those

3046
01:50:56,990 --> 01:50:55,139
tangents that Fascinate us or that have

3047
01:50:58,970 --> 01:50:57,000
aroused some kind of question that we

3048
01:51:01,010 --> 01:50:58,980
want to be answered and rather than just

3049
01:51:03,410 --> 01:51:01,020
ignoring that and trying to focus on

3050
01:51:05,689 --> 01:51:03,420
just meeting like a productivity goal

3051
01:51:08,330 --> 01:51:05,699
actually just pursuing that Curiosity

3052
01:51:12,410 --> 01:51:08,340
answering those questions

3053
01:51:15,530 --> 01:51:12,420
um we need to try to have an open mind

3054
01:51:18,410 --> 01:51:15,540
in other ways too so like I said with

3055
01:51:21,290 --> 01:51:18,420
the questions of of analyzing evidence

3056
01:51:22,910 --> 01:51:21,300
you know not just like only accepting

3057
01:51:25,010 --> 01:51:22,920
the evidence that supports your point of

3058
01:51:27,770 --> 01:51:25,020
view but also trying to look at the

3059
01:51:30,830 --> 01:51:27,780
evidence that might disregard or

3060
01:51:32,870 --> 01:51:30,840
disprove your point of view and then try

3061
01:51:35,570 --> 01:51:32,880
to treat it as fairly as you would for

3062
01:51:38,090 --> 01:51:35,580
the evidence that supports your argument

3063
01:51:38,870 --> 01:51:38,100
you know balancing the two in hand

3064
01:51:40,669 --> 01:51:38,880
um

3065
01:51:41,930 --> 01:51:40,679
you know I think you obviously do that

3066
01:51:43,729 --> 01:51:41,940
very well when you're looking at

3067
01:51:46,310 --> 01:51:43,739
something like climate change you know

3068
01:51:48,830 --> 01:51:46,320
from what you've said is like your

3069
01:51:50,270 --> 01:51:48,840
allowing yourself to be pulled in each

3070
01:51:52,850 --> 01:51:50,280
Direction I think that's really

3071
01:51:54,229 --> 01:51:52,860
important might not allow you to come up

3072
01:51:57,229 --> 01:51:54,239
with a solution to climate change

3073
01:51:59,330 --> 01:51:57,239
because the question is so naughty but

3074
01:52:00,770 --> 01:51:59,340
in your everyday life you know when

3075
01:52:02,209 --> 01:52:00,780
you're dealing with like a professional

3076
01:52:04,910 --> 01:52:02,219
situation

3077
01:52:06,709 --> 01:52:04,920
um hopefully like you can integrate that

3078
01:52:08,629 --> 01:52:06,719
information and that it might help you

3079
01:52:11,590 --> 01:52:08,639
to come up with the solution that's more

3080
01:52:13,850 --> 01:52:11,600
sophisticated wiser than if you're just

3081
01:52:16,430 --> 01:52:13,860
fallen for my side bias and only

3082
01:52:19,070 --> 01:52:16,440
selected the information that was uh

3083
01:52:21,470 --> 01:52:19,080
supporting your particular point of view

3084
01:52:23,930 --> 01:52:21,480
I think my openness my quote-unquote

3085
01:52:26,270 --> 01:52:23,940
openness is buttressed by my closeness

3086
01:52:28,729 --> 01:52:26,280
so what I mean is that I'm a judgmental

3087
01:52:30,229 --> 01:52:28,739
person by nature and if I ever come

3088
01:52:31,970 --> 01:52:30,239
across non-judgmentalist because I'm

3089
01:52:34,129 --> 01:52:31,980
fighting my tendency constantly I want

3090
01:52:36,109 --> 01:52:34,139
to say actually so I want to be that

3091
01:52:37,970 --> 01:52:36,119
person that puts it actually so and so

3092
01:52:39,350 --> 01:52:37,980
and so and when I'm looking at alternate

3093
01:52:41,450 --> 01:52:39,360
viewpoints I'm doing so because I want

3094
01:52:42,950 --> 01:52:41,460
to have the ultimate actually so and so

3095
01:52:44,750 --> 01:52:42,960
I want to say I don't know some issue

3096
01:52:46,430 --> 01:52:44,760
about plastic bottles so I want to see

3097
01:52:47,750 --> 01:52:46,440
okay well what's the opponent say so

3098
01:52:49,729 --> 01:52:47,760
that I could say to those people who are

3099
01:52:51,350 --> 01:52:49,739
pro plastic bottles actually and then

3100
01:52:53,090 --> 01:52:51,360
but what do they say to that so I can

3101
01:52:55,490 --> 01:52:53,100
say to those people actually my

3102
01:52:57,229 --> 01:52:55,500
non-judgmentalness is instigated by my

3103
01:52:58,149 --> 01:52:57,239
judgment but that's what I think you

3104
01:53:00,290 --> 01:52:58,159
need

3105
01:53:02,870 --> 01:53:00,300
open-mindedness in the sense that you're

3106
01:53:05,629 --> 01:53:02,880
not drawn purely by your preconceptions

3107
01:53:07,189 --> 01:53:05,639
and that you're willing to look into the

3108
01:53:09,470 --> 01:53:07,199
broad range of evidence but you also

3109
01:53:11,330 --> 01:53:09,480
need to apply critical thinking you know

3110
01:53:12,950 --> 01:53:11,340
you have to be analytical about what

3111
01:53:15,410 --> 01:53:12,960
you're looking at many have to

3112
01:53:17,390 --> 01:53:15,420
synthesize that you know that's I think

3113
01:53:19,850 --> 01:53:17,400
that is fundamentally what we mean by

3114
01:53:21,350 --> 01:53:19,860
kind of being a skeptic

3115
01:53:22,550 --> 01:53:21,360
um and then I think like what's really

3116
01:53:26,390 --> 01:53:22,560
important and this comes back to

3117
01:53:28,189 --> 01:53:26,400
intellectual humility is that like you

3118
01:53:29,689 --> 01:53:28,199
can come to a conclusion and it's

3119
01:53:32,990 --> 01:53:29,699
important I think that we don't always

3120
01:53:35,510 --> 01:53:33,000
sit on the fence on every issue but you

3121
01:53:38,090 --> 01:53:35,520
can moderate your opinions on something

3122
01:53:39,530 --> 01:53:38,100
so you can say I believe that this is

3123
01:53:41,109 --> 01:53:39,540
the case and you can even put a number

3124
01:53:43,550 --> 01:53:41,119
you know you could say I'm like 60

3125
01:53:46,430 --> 01:53:43,560
certain you know

3126
01:53:48,590 --> 01:53:46,440
that I think that this is where we stand

3127
01:53:50,510 --> 01:53:48,600
on climate change to date or whatever

3128
01:53:53,149 --> 01:53:50,520
you're looking at on you know plastic

3129
01:53:56,330 --> 01:53:53,159
bottles you know and you can adapt to

3130
01:53:58,430 --> 01:53:56,340
that you might then come across a new uh

3131
01:54:00,169 --> 01:53:58,440
a new study but you know shifts it one

3132
01:54:02,689 --> 01:54:00,179
way or the other but I think it really

3133
01:54:05,629 --> 01:54:02,699
helps to have that tennis to realize

3134
01:54:07,550 --> 01:54:05,639
there's a spectrum of confidence whereas

3135
01:54:10,070 --> 01:54:07,560
I think especially with social media

3136
01:54:11,570 --> 01:54:10,080
today and identity politics and this

3137
01:54:13,430 --> 01:54:11,580
kind of tendency

3138
01:54:15,350 --> 01:54:13,440
to get attention of having very strong

3139
01:54:17,870 --> 01:54:15,360
views we always think it's like you have

3140
01:54:20,030 --> 01:54:17,880
to be 100 one way or a hundred percent

3141
01:54:23,030 --> 01:54:20,040
the other and that's a trap you want to

3142
01:54:25,129 --> 01:54:23,040
accept that you is sliding scale and you

3143
01:54:28,070 --> 01:54:25,139
can move along that scale and but you

3144
01:54:31,609 --> 01:54:28,080
don't have to become fixed at one point

3145
01:54:33,709 --> 01:54:31,619
does the statement I'm 60 certain about

3146
01:54:35,629 --> 01:54:33,719
so-and-so fact the utterance of it make

3147
01:54:37,370 --> 01:54:35,639
you then 65 and then the next time you

3148
01:54:39,470 --> 01:54:37,380
say it makes you 70 like do you become

3149
01:54:41,450 --> 01:54:39,480
entrenched just by saying it even with

3150
01:54:42,950 --> 01:54:41,460
an acknowledgment of uncertainty I don't

3151
01:54:44,629 --> 01:54:42,960
know I'm asking like unless do you have

3152
01:54:45,709 --> 01:54:44,639
to always say 50 percent right in the

3153
01:54:47,510 --> 01:54:45,719
middle so that you don't get pulled in

3154
01:54:49,310 --> 01:54:47,520
each Direction no because I think

3155
01:54:51,649 --> 01:54:49,320
actually

3156
01:54:52,669 --> 01:54:51,659
to sit on the fence in that way is also

3157
01:54:57,890 --> 01:54:52,679
not

3158
01:54:59,689 --> 01:54:57,900
from studies of super forecasters and

3159
01:55:01,310 --> 01:54:59,699
these are people who have been put

3160
01:55:03,350 --> 01:55:01,320
through these huge experiments where

3161
01:55:04,970 --> 01:55:03,360
they're asked to predict the outcomes of

3162
01:55:06,590 --> 01:55:04,980
different geopolitical events and it

3163
01:55:09,290 --> 01:55:06,600
could be you know who wins your revision

3164
01:55:11,149 --> 01:55:09,300
to you know who wins the World Cup to

3165
01:55:13,310 --> 01:55:11,159
who wins an election to where the war

3166
01:55:15,950 --> 01:55:13,320
will break out in a certain region you

3167
01:55:18,590 --> 01:55:15,960
know loads of different regions uh loads

3168
01:55:20,450 --> 01:55:18,600
of different areas of a political you

3169
01:55:25,010 --> 01:55:20,460
know World activity

3170
01:55:27,590 --> 01:55:25,020
um and what happens with these uh

3171
01:55:29,510 --> 01:55:27,600
uh these tournaments is that the people

3172
01:55:31,250 --> 01:55:29,520
are asked to make their predictions and

3173
01:55:32,750 --> 01:55:31,260
they cannot update their predictions up

3174
01:55:34,729 --> 01:55:32,760
to a certain point and they have to give

3175
01:55:36,350 --> 01:55:34,739
their confidence

3176
01:55:38,330 --> 01:55:36,360
um and the way it's scored is that

3177
01:55:40,490 --> 01:55:38,340
someone who's always just I don't know

3178
01:55:42,470 --> 01:55:40,500
is 50 one why it's 50 to something else

3179
01:55:44,810 --> 01:55:42,480
but they don't score very well uh

3180
01:55:47,750 --> 01:55:44,820
because it's the safe option

3181
01:55:49,850 --> 01:55:47,760
um so you're rewarded actually for uh

3182
01:55:51,590 --> 01:55:49,860
you know veering one way or the other in

3183
01:55:53,270 --> 01:55:51,600
your predictions like what when they

3184
01:55:54,709 --> 01:55:53,280
come to actually the final outcome and

3185
01:55:57,229 --> 01:55:54,719
they're measuring your performance you

3186
01:55:58,790 --> 01:55:57,239
know you're rewarded but if you were

3187
01:56:01,010 --> 01:55:58,800
right and you were more confident you

3188
01:56:03,410 --> 01:56:01,020
get more points than if you were right

3189
01:56:05,149 --> 01:56:03,420
but you showed only a low confidence so

3190
01:56:07,609 --> 01:56:05,159
you know it's a complex complicated

3191
01:56:09,350 --> 01:56:07,619
measure that they use to do that but you

3192
01:56:11,149 --> 01:56:09,360
know essentially that's it the more

3193
01:56:12,410 --> 01:56:11,159
confident you are in a right outcome the

3194
01:56:14,810 --> 01:56:12,420
better you score and the super

3195
01:56:17,750 --> 01:56:14,820
forecasters consistently do perform

3196
01:56:19,490 --> 01:56:17,760
better they show more confidence in the

3197
01:56:21,530 --> 01:56:19,500
areas where they're right they show

3198
01:56:23,629 --> 01:56:21,540
lower much lower confidence in the areas

3199
01:56:24,350 --> 01:56:23,639
where they end up being wrong

3200
01:56:25,850 --> 01:56:24,360
um

3201
01:56:27,229 --> 01:56:25,860
so I think that shows that actually

3202
01:56:29,050 --> 01:56:27,239
there is value

3203
01:56:31,430 --> 01:56:29,060
in you know

3204
01:56:33,169 --> 01:56:31,440
uh expressing

3205
01:56:35,330 --> 01:56:33,179
true confidence rather than always

3206
01:56:37,490 --> 01:56:35,340
sitting on the fence and actually it is

3207
01:56:39,590 --> 01:56:37,500
possible to estimate that you can

3208
01:56:41,450 --> 01:56:39,600
actually rationally think you know what

3209
01:56:43,550 --> 01:56:41,460
evidence have I looked at

3210
01:56:45,530 --> 01:56:43,560
how strongly do I feel that this is true

3211
01:56:47,330 --> 01:56:45,540
what what are the potential reasons that

3212
01:56:49,430 --> 01:56:47,340
I might be wrong and then you can gauge

3213
01:56:51,229 --> 01:56:49,440
you know whether that is more likely or

3214
01:56:52,609 --> 01:56:51,239
less likely and that actually is

3215
01:56:54,590 --> 01:56:52,619
Meaningful

3216
01:56:56,689 --> 01:56:54,600
where I was going with that there are

3217
01:56:58,189 --> 01:56:56,699
studies that if you write about some

3218
01:57:00,050 --> 01:56:58,199
fact that you don't believe in so let's

3219
01:57:01,609 --> 01:57:00,060
say I like Kellogg's cereal you don't

3220
01:57:03,050 --> 01:57:01,619
yeah you write about it then all of a

3221
01:57:04,609 --> 01:57:03,060
sudden you start to like it more I

3222
01:57:06,290 --> 01:57:04,619
believe some people in Wartime use this

3223
01:57:07,970 --> 01:57:06,300
they say the Japanese would take in

3224
01:57:09,169 --> 01:57:07,980
Americans and say write about why you

3225
01:57:11,990 --> 01:57:09,179
like Japan and then all of a sudden they

3226
01:57:13,850 --> 01:57:12,000
would when making a statistical Claim

3227
01:57:16,970 --> 01:57:13,860
about confidence for instance if I was

3228
01:57:20,030 --> 01:57:16,980
to say I think it's 30 likely war will

3229
01:57:22,250 --> 01:57:20,040
break out in Canada next year you do so

3230
01:57:24,830 --> 01:57:22,260
not by irrational analysis it's

3231
01:57:26,510 --> 01:57:24,840
extremely unless you've unless you have

3232
01:57:28,250 --> 01:57:26,520
pages and pages and even those pages

3233
01:57:30,649 --> 01:57:28,260
will have assumptions

3234
01:57:32,209 --> 01:57:30,659
unless you've done some specific

3235
01:57:33,950 --> 01:57:32,219
analysis to come to that number you're

3236
01:57:35,750 --> 01:57:33,960
using your intuition and you could be

3237
01:57:36,830 --> 01:57:35,760
false about your own intuition too so

3238
01:57:38,570 --> 01:57:36,840
you could have just come up with a

3239
01:57:40,910 --> 01:57:38,580
number so that's why it's saying if you

3240
01:57:42,290 --> 01:57:40,920
simply State well if I'm 30 confident

3241
01:57:44,270 --> 01:57:42,300
about so and so then you'll become more

3242
01:57:45,890 --> 01:57:44,280
entrenched to thinking you're 30 even

3243
01:57:48,050 --> 01:57:45,900
though you didn't rationally come up

3244
01:57:50,089 --> 01:57:48,060
with a number 30 you didn't analyze that

3245
01:57:51,709 --> 01:57:50,099
it's a bit tricky to even give a

3246
01:57:54,669 --> 01:57:51,719
confidence level unless it's something

3247
01:57:57,649 --> 01:57:54,679
you've studied for years

3248
01:57:59,030 --> 01:57:57,659
so you know these people aren't studying

3249
01:58:01,129 --> 01:57:59,040
these different issues for years but

3250
01:58:02,570 --> 01:58:01,139
they do look at them in depth when

3251
01:58:03,950 --> 01:58:02,580
they're doing these super forecasting

3252
01:58:07,250 --> 01:58:03,960
tournaments you know

3253
01:58:08,629 --> 01:58:07,260
I'm gonna do some some uh strategies

3254
01:58:10,550 --> 01:58:08,639
that are kind of

3255
01:58:13,010 --> 01:58:10,560
well accepted even by people like Daniel

3256
01:58:14,629 --> 01:58:13,020
Carlton napkin calculations yeah so like

3257
01:58:16,850 --> 01:58:14,639
look at the base rate

3258
01:58:19,189 --> 01:58:16,860
um How likely is it the country of a

3259
01:58:22,910 --> 01:58:19,199
similar economy to Canada a similar size

3260
01:58:25,430 --> 01:58:22,920
similar history of warfare How likely is

3261
01:58:27,890 --> 01:58:25,440
it that that country is going to

3262
01:58:29,870 --> 01:58:27,900
enter a war very quickly and then you

3263
01:58:32,209 --> 01:58:29,880
know you have a look at the base rate

3264
01:58:34,129 --> 01:58:32,219
and you know you might see that it's

3265
01:58:36,709 --> 01:58:34,139
like well it happens once in every 10

3266
01:58:38,510 --> 01:58:36,719
years once in every 20 years whatever

3267
01:58:39,950 --> 01:58:38,520
um you know just coming up with that

3268
01:58:41,870 --> 01:58:39,960
base where it actually makes you better

3269
01:58:44,450 --> 01:58:41,880
than just going solely with your

3270
01:58:45,950 --> 01:58:44,460
intuitions but then these people update

3271
01:58:47,890 --> 01:58:45,960
those predictions by looking more

3272
01:58:51,050 --> 01:58:47,900
specifically at the different factors

3273
01:58:52,729 --> 01:58:51,060
but yeah you know there's no algorithm

3274
01:58:54,830 --> 01:58:52,739
that will always give them the right

3275
01:58:57,109 --> 01:58:54,840
amount but what this study showed is

3276
01:58:59,510 --> 01:58:57,119
that actually they were capable the

3277
01:59:01,430 --> 01:58:59,520
super forecasters especially with rating

3278
01:59:03,890 --> 01:59:01,440
their confidence much better than chance

3279
01:59:05,330 --> 01:59:03,900
much better than just kind of you know

3280
01:59:07,129 --> 01:59:05,340
rolling a dice and picking their

3281
01:59:08,930 --> 01:59:07,139
confidence based on that

3282
01:59:10,609 --> 01:59:08,940
um so they were making the decisions

3283
01:59:13,010 --> 01:59:10,619
better than normal handwriting their

3284
01:59:14,330 --> 01:59:13,020
confidence better than the average so it

3285
01:59:16,430 --> 01:59:14,340
is possible

3286
01:59:17,930 --> 01:59:16,440
um I think what you're saying is you

3287
01:59:20,089 --> 01:59:17,940
know there's this phenomenon called this

3288
01:59:24,649 --> 01:59:20,099
saying is believing effect which is

3289
01:59:27,830 --> 01:59:24,659
useful in Psychology and that is true

3290
01:59:29,450 --> 01:59:27,840
um but I think like when you're aware of

3291
01:59:31,070 --> 01:59:29,460
that possibility you can kind of protect

3292
01:59:33,229 --> 01:59:31,080
against it and especially when these

3293
01:59:36,830 --> 01:59:33,239
people are trying very hard to think

3294
01:59:38,570 --> 01:59:36,840
very analytically about the situation at

3295
01:59:40,750 --> 01:59:38,580
hand I think they are protected from

3296
01:59:44,330 --> 01:59:40,760
that compared to someone who maybe is

3297
01:59:47,030 --> 01:59:44,340
suffering you know undergoing propaganda

3298
01:59:50,629 --> 01:59:47,040
in as a prisoner of war or that kind of

3299
01:59:52,010 --> 01:59:50,639
situation or someone who's in a more you

3300
01:59:53,810 --> 01:59:52,020
know relaxed kind of laboratory

3301
01:59:55,490 --> 01:59:53,820
experiment looking at preferences for

3302
01:59:57,290 --> 01:59:55,500
cereal who might not actually be trying

3303
01:59:59,270 --> 01:59:57,300
to think very carefully about what they

3304
02:00:01,070 --> 01:59:59,280
rationally believe in especially like a

3305
02:00:03,890 --> 02:00:01,080
preference for cornflakes is going to be

3306
02:00:06,350 --> 02:00:03,900
a much more emotional response so much

3307
02:00:08,450 --> 02:00:06,360
easier to sway I would say rather than

3308
02:00:10,310 --> 02:00:08,460
these super forecasters who are very

3309
02:00:12,410 --> 02:00:10,320
deliberately analytically kind of

3310
02:00:15,229 --> 02:00:12,420
crunching data trying to come up with

3311
02:00:16,669 --> 02:00:15,239
the best analysis that they can do

3312
02:00:19,550 --> 02:00:16,679
I see

3313
02:00:20,810 --> 02:00:19,560
David can you go over this study I

3314
02:00:24,050 --> 02:00:20,820
believe it's a study or maybe it's just

3315
02:00:26,450 --> 02:00:24,060
a result about all-star teams not being

3316
02:00:29,330 --> 02:00:26,460
as a whole efficient as teams that have

3317
02:00:32,450 --> 02:00:29,340
three stars out of ten yeah so I'll use

3318
02:00:33,830 --> 02:00:32,460
like an example from soccer you know

3319
02:00:36,830 --> 02:00:33,840
um you can kind of rank different

3320
02:00:39,410 --> 02:00:36,840
players in soccer according to you know

3321
02:00:42,109 --> 02:00:39,420
how they've performed in uh matches such

3322
02:00:44,149 --> 02:00:42,119
as the Premier League and then obviously

3323
02:00:46,189 --> 02:00:44,159
you know they play for like a team like

3324
02:00:48,830 --> 02:00:46,199
Manchester United in the UK or whatever

3325
02:00:50,689 --> 02:00:48,840
you know that's separate from them when

3326
02:00:52,010 --> 02:00:50,699
they gather together for their countries

3327
02:00:54,109 --> 02:00:52,020
teams

3328
02:00:55,970 --> 02:00:54,119
um so some players will play for England

3329
02:00:58,970 --> 02:00:55,980
some will play for brand some will play

3330
02:01:01,310 --> 02:00:58,980
for the US Canada whatever and what you

3331
02:01:03,229 --> 02:01:01,320
find there is that you know if you have

3332
02:01:04,729 --> 02:01:03,239
those high-ranking players who've had a

3333
02:01:08,930 --> 02:01:04,739
really good track record within their

3334
02:01:10,669 --> 02:01:08,940
own uh uh sports teams uh football teams

3335
02:01:12,589 --> 02:01:10,679
you know within the Premier League you

3336
02:01:14,930 --> 02:01:12,599
know if you have too many of those kind

3337
02:01:17,570 --> 02:01:14,940
of star players within a country's team

3338
02:01:20,450 --> 02:01:17,580
actually you reach a certain threshold

3339
02:01:22,910 --> 02:01:20,460
about 70 and it's like diminishing

3340
02:01:24,890 --> 02:01:22,920
returns to actually having more and more

3341
02:01:26,750 --> 02:01:24,900
star players doesn't help your

3342
02:01:29,030 --> 02:01:26,760
performance and may actually damage your

3343
02:01:30,709 --> 02:01:29,040
performance so actually you may if you

3344
02:01:32,629 --> 02:01:30,719
have a hundred percent of the star

3345
02:01:34,970 --> 02:01:32,639
players within your team you might

3346
02:01:38,209 --> 02:01:34,980
actually perform worse than a concrete

3347
02:01:40,310 --> 02:01:38,219
that only has 50 of kind of of their

3348
02:01:42,169 --> 02:01:40,320
team made up of these star players from

3349
02:01:45,350 --> 02:01:42,179
the top teams of the world

3350
02:01:46,850 --> 02:01:45,360
um now you know why is that well it

3351
02:01:49,370 --> 02:01:46,860
seems like it's all related to kind of

3352
02:01:51,229 --> 02:01:49,380
the Team Dynamics and the Egos and it

3353
02:01:54,649 --> 02:01:51,239
seems that the people who are the really

3354
02:01:56,390 --> 02:01:54,659
top performance and it's also true for

3355
02:01:58,729 --> 02:01:56,400
basketball it's also true for kind of

3356
02:02:00,410 --> 02:01:58,739
investment banking when you have teams

3357
02:02:02,209 --> 02:02:00,420
of like top investors who've been

3358
02:02:04,129 --> 02:02:02,219
labeled Stars you know then they work

3359
02:02:06,410 --> 02:02:04,139
less well with their colleagues and

3360
02:02:07,850 --> 02:02:06,420
their company as a whole performs worse

3361
02:02:09,649 --> 02:02:07,860
um has all to do with the kind of

3362
02:02:12,470 --> 02:02:09,659
rotting egos that they're not

3363
02:02:13,970 --> 02:02:12,480
collaborating they're not cooperating in

3364
02:02:16,370 --> 02:02:13,980
the best way possible because they're

3365
02:02:18,169 --> 02:02:16,380
much more concerned with their own kind

3366
02:02:18,970 --> 02:02:18,179
of proving their own performance rather

3367
02:02:22,250 --> 02:02:18,980
than

3368
02:02:24,290 --> 02:02:22,260
uh you know working for the team and

3369
02:02:26,930 --> 02:02:24,300
kind of dissolving within the team to

3370
02:02:28,790 --> 02:02:26,940
produce the best overall communal effort

3371
02:02:31,189 --> 02:02:28,800
that they can do

3372
02:02:33,589 --> 02:02:31,199
and what about with IQ like having a

3373
02:02:35,990 --> 02:02:33,599
team dedicated to some intellectual task

3374
02:02:38,209 --> 02:02:36,000
a team of let's say 10 is it better to

3375
02:02:40,550 --> 02:02:38,219
have people who are all in the 99th

3376
02:02:42,050 --> 02:02:40,560
percentile of IQ or is better to have

3377
02:02:44,689 --> 02:02:42,060
five of them like how does that work

3378
02:02:46,129 --> 02:02:44,699
yeah I mean when it when it comes to IQ

3379
02:02:47,750 --> 02:02:46,139
and we called that collective

3380
02:02:50,330 --> 02:02:47,760
intelligence where you get the team as a

3381
02:02:53,270 --> 02:02:50,340
whole to solve an intellectual problem

3382
02:02:55,729 --> 02:02:53,280
um there wasn't the evidence that the uh

3383
02:02:57,530 --> 02:02:55,739
too much talent effect no one had looked

3384
02:02:58,370 --> 02:02:57,540
at that specifically so I wouldn't rule

3385
02:03:00,109 --> 02:02:58,380
it out

3386
02:03:03,229 --> 02:03:00,119
um but what they did find is that the

3387
02:03:05,930 --> 02:03:03,239
average IQ at the team or the top IQ

3388
02:03:08,030 --> 02:03:05,940
said one team had a special and

3389
02:03:10,490 --> 02:03:08,040
especially clever person who scored you

3390
02:03:12,350 --> 02:03:10,500
know way up the scale neither of those

3391
02:03:14,270 --> 02:03:12,360
were great predictors of how the team as

3392
02:03:17,270 --> 02:03:14,280
a whole would perform though as a

3393
02:03:18,050 --> 02:03:17,280
correlation but it was pretty weak

3394
02:03:20,689 --> 02:03:18,060
um

3395
02:03:24,229 --> 02:03:20,699
so what proved to be much more important

3396
02:03:26,810 --> 02:03:24,239
again was the uh Team Dynamics so kind

3397
02:03:28,310 --> 02:03:26,820
of how Equitable the conversation was

3398
02:03:30,290 --> 02:03:28,320
between the different people in the team

3399
02:03:31,669 --> 02:03:30,300
like were they giving each person the

3400
02:03:33,410 --> 02:03:31,679
chance to talk or did you have one

3401
02:03:35,390 --> 02:03:33,420
person who thought they were really

3402
02:03:36,890 --> 02:03:35,400
smart and were just talking over the

3403
02:03:38,390 --> 02:03:36,900
other people

3404
02:03:39,890 --> 02:03:38,400
um did you have

3405
02:03:41,689 --> 02:03:39,900
uh

3406
02:03:42,890 --> 02:03:41,699
you know did you did you have some

3407
02:03:44,750 --> 02:03:42,900
people who just weren't really like

3408
02:03:47,570 --> 02:03:44,760
picking up on the non-verbal cues as

3409
02:03:49,729 --> 02:03:47,580
well measures of emotional sensitivity

3410
02:03:52,129 --> 02:03:49,739
so how much people paying attention to

3411
02:03:54,169 --> 02:03:52,139
the other people's facial expressions

3412
02:03:55,370 --> 02:03:54,179
that actually proved to be a better

3413
02:03:58,550 --> 02:03:55,380
prediction of the collective

3414
02:03:59,990 --> 02:03:58,560
intelligence than the average IQ of the

3415
02:04:02,030 --> 02:04:00,000
people

3416
02:04:04,129 --> 02:04:02,040
Steve Jobs had this saying that what he

3417
02:04:06,050 --> 02:04:04,139
wants to do or what he does at Apple is

3418
02:04:08,089 --> 02:04:06,060
get people who are extremely intelligent

3419
02:04:09,589 --> 02:04:08,099
and extremely disagreeable and just put

3420
02:04:11,209 --> 02:04:09,599
them all in a room and like rock

3421
02:04:13,250 --> 02:04:11,219
tumblers what comes out after are

3422
02:04:15,109 --> 02:04:13,260
diamonds does this conflict with that or

3423
02:04:16,970 --> 02:04:15,119
it was he mistaken about that or was he

3424
02:04:19,430 --> 02:04:16,980
lucky

3425
02:04:21,589 --> 02:04:19,440
no I mean I think you know so this is

3426
02:04:24,530 --> 02:04:21,599
all about what kind of team Dynamic do

3427
02:04:27,649 --> 02:04:24,540
you create and

3428
02:04:30,709 --> 02:04:27,659
you could have a case of like you know

3429
02:04:34,850 --> 02:04:30,719
like um Kennedy's government during the

3430
02:04:37,010 --> 02:04:34,860
Bay of Pigs uh disaster where you have

3431
02:04:39,290 --> 02:04:37,020
highly intelligent people but they're

3432
02:04:42,709 --> 02:04:39,300
all agreeing with each other and they're

3433
02:04:45,290 --> 02:04:42,719
not expressing dissent and you know it

3434
02:04:45,950 --> 02:04:45,300
doesn't it doesn't have good outcomes

3435
02:04:48,169 --> 02:04:45,960
um

3436
02:04:50,930 --> 02:04:48,179
or you could have like a group of people

3437
02:04:54,290 --> 02:04:50,940
who are very willing to disagree been a

3438
02:04:55,669 --> 02:04:54,300
very amicable constructive way and I

3439
02:04:58,430 --> 02:04:55,679
think that's the ideal Dynamic really

3440
02:05:02,209 --> 02:04:58,440
where people are absolutely willing to

3441
02:05:05,089 --> 02:05:02,219
express uh Discord within the group but

3442
02:05:07,609 --> 02:05:05,099
they're also then looking for ways to

3443
02:05:09,830 --> 02:05:07,619
to balance those points of view

3444
02:05:11,810 --> 02:05:09,840
um not just to kind of combine them all

3445
02:05:13,490 --> 02:05:11,820
in this kind of Frankenstein's monster

3446
02:05:14,990 --> 02:05:13,500
of different viewpoints which you can

3447
02:05:16,430 --> 02:05:15,000
see with some creative tasks you could

3448
02:05:17,990 --> 02:05:16,440
be like we're all going to contribute

3449
02:05:19,370 --> 02:05:18,000
something and it just becomes a mess but

3450
02:05:21,109 --> 02:05:19,380
actually you know really trying to think

3451
02:05:22,729 --> 02:05:21,119
very hard about life and being very

3452
02:05:24,770 --> 02:05:22,739
honest with each other like does this

3453
02:05:26,870 --> 02:05:24,780
work doesn't this work is that rational

3454
02:05:29,390 --> 02:05:26,880
is that irrational you know and then

3455
02:05:31,370 --> 02:05:29,400
coming to the group decision in that

3456
02:05:33,410 --> 02:05:31,380
kind of way with a constructive

3457
02:05:35,870 --> 02:05:33,420
discussion and what the research shows

3458
02:05:37,310 --> 02:05:35,880
is that actually when you have this kind

3459
02:05:39,470 --> 02:05:37,320
of dialogue

3460
02:05:43,310 --> 02:05:39,480
um that allows disagreement and allows

3461
02:05:44,709 --> 02:05:43,320
constructive uh disagreement than that

3462
02:05:46,790 --> 02:05:44,719
actually you know you do get great

3463
02:05:49,550 --> 02:05:46,800
outcomes and you get better outcomes

3464
02:05:53,209 --> 02:05:49,560
then you could have from any single

3465
02:05:54,890 --> 02:05:53,219
individual so they do work then as the

3466
02:05:57,649 --> 02:05:54,900
kind of more than the sum of their

3467
02:05:59,270 --> 02:05:57,659
components those streams what did you

3468
02:06:00,890 --> 02:05:59,280
want to include in the intelligence trap

3469
02:06:03,109 --> 02:06:00,900
that you had to exclude because of

3470
02:06:04,930 --> 02:06:03,119
whatever reason pacing the editor said

3471
02:06:06,830 --> 02:06:04,940
no it's too bloated

3472
02:06:09,050 --> 02:06:06,840
uh

3473
02:06:11,570 --> 02:06:09,060
not much so there was a section that had

3474
02:06:14,089 --> 02:06:11,580
been longer um about a school called the

3475
02:06:16,370 --> 02:06:14,099
intellectual but juice Academy

3476
02:06:19,609 --> 02:06:16,380
um intellectual virtues Academy that's

3477
02:06:21,109 --> 02:06:19,619
right it's in Long Beach and they you

3478
02:06:24,470 --> 02:06:21,119
know it's a great school I visited them

3479
02:06:27,229 --> 02:06:24,480
they had uh tried to look at all of

3480
02:06:29,030 --> 02:06:27,239
these elements of what I would say are

3481
02:06:30,290 --> 02:06:29,040
evidence-based wisdom although they

3482
02:06:31,970 --> 02:06:30,300
didn't call that but things like

3483
02:06:34,850 --> 02:06:31,980
cultivating intellectual humility

3484
02:06:36,350 --> 02:06:34,860
amongst the kids curiosity the growth

3485
02:06:37,609 --> 02:06:36,360
mindset

3486
02:06:39,410 --> 02:06:37,619
um getting them to look at different

3487
02:06:40,729 --> 02:06:39,420
perspectives they're done all of these

3488
02:06:43,850 --> 02:06:40,739
things and

3489
02:06:45,229 --> 02:06:43,860
again with educational outcomes uh it's

3490
02:06:47,149 --> 02:06:45,239
really difficult to compare different

3491
02:06:49,970 --> 02:06:47,159
schools because you know

3492
02:06:51,530 --> 02:06:49,980
it's so tough like to account for the

3493
02:06:53,450 --> 02:06:51,540
different backgrounds of the parents and

3494
02:06:56,270 --> 02:06:53,460
stuff but those kids were doing really

3495
02:06:58,609 --> 02:06:56,280
well academically and they also really

3496
02:07:00,770 --> 02:06:58,619
seem to be embracing these different

3497
02:07:03,169 --> 02:07:00,780
virtues and so I like to think that

3498
02:07:05,990 --> 02:07:03,179
later on when they've gone on to

3499
02:07:08,330 --> 02:07:06,000
University and then into later life that

3500
02:07:10,669 --> 02:07:08,340
they're going to have they're going to

3501
02:07:12,290 --> 02:07:10,679
be more sophisticated thinkers as a

3502
02:07:14,089 --> 02:07:12,300
result of their education that have

3503
02:07:16,370 --> 02:07:14,099
praised more than just intelligence but

3504
02:07:19,010 --> 02:07:16,380
also all of these other traits that I

3505
02:07:21,589 --> 02:07:19,020
think are so important for thinking in a

3506
02:07:23,870 --> 02:07:21,599
sophisticated and rational way and wise

3507
02:07:26,450 --> 02:07:23,880
way you know that will really serve them

3508
02:07:27,709 --> 02:07:26,460
well and it was really fascinating look

3509
02:07:32,570 --> 02:07:27,719
for me

3510
02:07:34,310 --> 02:07:32,580
could help to change Education Without

3511
02:07:36,410 --> 02:07:34,320
sacrificing the things that we've

3512
02:07:38,510 --> 02:07:36,420
appreciated previously like they were

3513
02:07:40,790 --> 02:07:38,520
still doing well academically but also

3514
02:07:44,750 --> 02:07:40,800
just helping to develop like better

3515
02:07:47,450 --> 02:07:44,760
thinkers uh you know more generally

3516
02:07:49,609 --> 02:07:47,460
what about for the expectation effect

3517
02:07:51,950 --> 02:07:49,619
was there anything that you had to cut

3518
02:07:53,149 --> 02:07:51,960
that you oh man I I wish that was

3519
02:07:54,950 --> 02:07:53,159
included

3520
02:07:56,990 --> 02:07:54,960
no I mean there were just some things

3521
02:07:59,030 --> 02:07:57,000
that I didn't think there were there was

3522
02:08:01,370 --> 02:07:59,040
enough evidence for

3523
02:08:04,850 --> 02:08:01,380
um you know a study showing that

3524
02:08:06,770 --> 02:08:04,860
weirdly if you expect to get flu over

3525
02:08:08,450 --> 02:08:06,780
the winter you're more likely to get flu

3526
02:08:09,890 --> 02:08:08,460
over the winter and that's really

3527
02:08:11,030 --> 02:08:09,900
difficult it's really difficult to

3528
02:08:12,830 --> 02:08:11,040
explain

3529
02:08:14,390 --> 02:08:12,840
um it could just be a difference in well

3530
02:08:16,189 --> 02:08:14,400
I say just I think it's equally

3531
02:08:18,109 --> 02:08:16,199
fascinating could be a difference in

3532
02:08:20,750 --> 02:08:18,119
behavior and that if you are so cautious

3533
02:08:22,010 --> 02:08:20,760
about not catching any illness that

3534
02:08:24,290 --> 02:08:22,020
actually maybe you're getting less

3535
02:08:26,750 --> 02:08:24,300
physical exercise maybe you're actually

3536
02:08:28,250 --> 02:08:26,760
exposing yourself less to kind of micros

3537
02:08:30,950 --> 02:08:28,260
mod generally to your immune system

3538
02:08:33,770 --> 02:08:30,960
isn't performing so well who knows but

3539
02:08:35,629 --> 02:08:33,780
yeah definitely that was a result that I

3540
02:08:37,430 --> 02:08:35,639
wanted to wait to see when there's more

3541
02:08:39,589 --> 02:08:37,440
evidence to kind of replicate that and

3542
02:08:40,430 --> 02:08:39,599
then to explore the mechanism

3543
02:08:43,970 --> 02:08:40,440
um

3544
02:08:46,010 --> 02:08:43,980
that's the main one uh and then how our

3545
02:08:49,129 --> 02:08:46,020
expectations can shape personality

3546
02:08:50,930 --> 02:08:49,139
change so essentially I have written a

3547
02:08:52,010 --> 02:08:50,940
piece for this that should be on this

3548
02:08:54,530 --> 02:08:52,020
they should be coming out in the

3549
02:08:56,990 --> 02:08:54,540
guardian that looks at whether we have a

3550
02:08:59,149 --> 02:08:57,000
kind of mindset of believing that our

3551
02:09:01,030 --> 02:08:59,159
personality can develop and grow as we

3552
02:09:04,189 --> 02:09:01,040
get older does that actually help people

3553
02:09:06,350 --> 02:09:04,199
to change the way they are and the

3554
02:09:08,750 --> 02:09:06,360
research shows that it does so people

3555
02:09:11,089 --> 02:09:08,760
who have this mindset that they're kind

3556
02:09:13,490 --> 02:09:11,099
of malleable people they find it easier

3557
02:09:15,830 --> 02:09:13,500
to develop greater reserves of

3558
02:09:19,189 --> 02:09:15,840
conscientiousness

3559
02:09:21,589 --> 02:09:19,199
um if they are introverts they find it

3560
02:09:23,870 --> 02:09:21,599
easier to develop into extra boats and

3561
02:09:26,450 --> 02:09:23,880
to overcome shyness you know it's very

3562
02:09:27,890 --> 02:09:26,460
important can you expand on that and is

3563
02:09:29,750 --> 02:09:27,900
that the same as the growth mindset or

3564
02:09:31,490 --> 02:09:29,760
is that different yeah I mean it's very

3565
02:09:33,770 --> 02:09:31,500
much related to the growth mindset

3566
02:09:36,649 --> 02:09:33,780
actually I would just say it's also the

3567
02:09:37,370 --> 02:09:36,659
growth mindset had traditionally been

3568
02:09:39,770 --> 02:09:37,380
um

3569
02:09:41,450 --> 02:09:39,780
concerned with intelligence but this is

3570
02:09:43,370 --> 02:09:41,460
using the similar principle but just

3571
02:09:46,129 --> 02:09:43,380
looking at personality like do people

3572
02:09:47,689 --> 02:09:46,139
believe that personality is fixed or do

3573
02:09:49,910 --> 02:09:47,699
they think that it's malleable that they

3574
02:09:52,790 --> 02:09:49,920
believe in the brains plasticity and

3575
02:09:55,729 --> 02:09:52,800
ability to change to be see things as um

3576
02:09:57,709 --> 02:09:55,739
emotional regulation as something that

3577
02:09:59,810 --> 02:09:57,719
you either have or you don't and if

3578
02:10:02,930 --> 02:09:59,820
you're angry you cannot possibly calm

3579
02:10:04,609 --> 02:10:02,940
yourself down or do you see emotions as

3580
02:10:06,530 --> 02:10:04,619
being something that actually are within

3581
02:10:08,629 --> 02:10:06,540
your control and that you can you can

3582
02:10:11,209 --> 02:10:08,639
change the way you process emotions over

3583
02:10:13,189 --> 02:10:11,219
time and all of those you know elements

3584
02:10:14,810 --> 02:10:13,199
uh which are all related to the growth

3585
02:10:17,149 --> 02:10:14,820
mindset yeah they make a huge difference

3586
02:10:19,970 --> 02:10:17,159
for how people develop whether you get

3587
02:10:22,370 --> 02:10:19,980
stuck in this rut of behaviors that you

3588
02:10:24,589 --> 02:10:22,380
don't find suit your goals or whether

3589
02:10:27,229 --> 02:10:24,599
you can actually evolve and adapt have

3590
02:10:29,750 --> 02:10:27,239
you looked into studies on yogis and

3591
02:10:32,089 --> 02:10:29,760
their expectation effect like that is

3592
02:10:34,310 --> 02:10:32,099
what people claim to be able to do under

3593
02:10:37,250 --> 02:10:34,320
intense meditation

3594
02:10:40,129 --> 02:10:37,260
no I haven't no I would be interested in

3595
02:10:41,689 --> 02:10:40,139
that yeah it's a good it would be a

3596
02:10:44,450 --> 02:10:41,699
great study if someone were to do it

3597
02:10:45,470 --> 02:10:44,460
there's some people like Wim Hof who I

3598
02:10:47,689 --> 02:10:45,480
don't know if you know who in the office

3599
02:10:50,030 --> 02:10:47,699
yeah I believe he believes that through

3600
02:10:52,310 --> 02:10:50,040
his breath technique and I don't think

3601
02:10:54,410 --> 02:10:52,320
this entirely mental is he's actually

3602
02:10:57,050 --> 02:10:54,420
doing a behavior he believes that he can

3603
02:10:58,729 --> 02:10:57,060
repel a virus or viruses of a certain

3604
02:11:00,649 --> 02:10:58,739
sort and he can train people and you can

3605
02:11:02,390 --> 02:11:00,659
get a study where you impose this

3606
02:11:04,370 --> 02:11:02,400
intervention on a set and then have a

3607
02:11:05,990 --> 02:11:04,380
neutral other set have you looked into

3608
02:11:08,330 --> 02:11:06,000
those claims at all

3609
02:11:11,149 --> 02:11:08,340
I haven't I mean

3610
02:11:13,250 --> 02:11:11,159
I'd be super fascinated I wouldn't so

3611
02:11:15,530 --> 02:11:13,260
like to talk about calibrating my

3612
02:11:18,050 --> 02:11:15,540
confidence I would say I would be kind

3613
02:11:19,669 --> 02:11:18,060
of 50 50 on that at the moment not

3614
02:11:21,890 --> 02:11:19,679
knowing the details but you know we do

3615
02:11:23,450 --> 02:11:21,900
know that the mind is connected to the

3616
02:11:25,850 --> 02:11:23,460
immune system

3617
02:11:27,050 --> 02:11:25,860
um and that brings up meditation can

3618
02:11:29,330 --> 02:11:27,060
influence

3619
02:11:31,609 --> 02:11:29,340
your the active to your immune system

3620
02:11:33,109 --> 02:11:31,619
and especially if you have chronic

3621
02:11:34,370 --> 02:11:33,119
inflammation

3622
02:11:37,609 --> 02:11:34,380
um which can be caused by kind of

3623
02:11:39,770 --> 02:11:37,619
anxiety you know and can be affected by

3624
02:11:41,570 --> 02:11:39,780
your breathing as well that that can

3625
02:11:43,669 --> 02:11:41,580
then throw your immune system out of

3626
02:11:45,470 --> 02:11:43,679
balancing a more susceptible to certain

3627
02:11:47,810 --> 02:11:45,480
illnesses so it doesn't sound like

3628
02:11:49,729 --> 02:11:47,820
implausible to me but I just I would be

3629
02:11:52,669 --> 02:11:49,739
interested to see that

3630
02:11:54,589 --> 02:11:52,679
in a you know reasonably sized study to

3631
02:11:56,390 --> 02:11:54,599
look at that the difference between the

3632
02:11:58,609 --> 02:11:56,400
two groups you know yeah it's

3633
02:12:00,890 --> 02:11:58,619
fascinating this is potentially an ill

3634
02:12:02,810 --> 02:12:00,900
no this is an ill-defined question I'm

3635
02:12:04,850 --> 02:12:02,820
sure it's one you thought about how far

3636
02:12:07,070 --> 02:12:04,860
can the placebo effect slash the

3637
02:12:08,810 --> 02:12:07,080
expectation effect be taken because some

3638
02:12:10,910 --> 02:12:08,820
people through meditation which I'm

3639
02:12:14,030 --> 02:12:10,920
synonymous with an expectation effect

3640
02:12:15,169 --> 02:12:14,040
can boil water or at least can raise the

3641
02:12:16,790 --> 02:12:15,179
temperature of their body drastically

3642
02:12:18,470 --> 02:12:16,800
and it's something that you thought was

3643
02:12:20,209 --> 02:12:18,480
only a part of the autonomic nervous

3644
02:12:22,129 --> 02:12:20,219
system like you cannot control that yeah

3645
02:12:24,470 --> 02:12:22,139
and then there are other cases like you

3646
02:12:26,209 --> 02:12:24,480
mentioned of not as quote-unquote

3647
02:12:27,649 --> 02:12:26,219
trivial as pain even though pain is not

3648
02:12:29,750 --> 02:12:27,659
true it's something that we would think

3649
02:12:31,490 --> 02:12:29,760
okay yeah you can coerce yourself into

3650
02:12:33,589 --> 02:12:31,500
pain you can take yourself out of it

3651
02:12:35,750 --> 02:12:33,599
mentally how far can it be taken the

3652
02:12:38,570 --> 02:12:35,760
placebo and expectation effect

3653
02:12:40,010 --> 02:12:38,580
okay I mean I can play we have to be

3654
02:12:41,870 --> 02:12:40,020
really careful in

3655
02:12:45,109 --> 02:12:41,880
defining the limits of what the science

3656
02:12:46,850 --> 02:12:45,119
shows that it can do and you know I do

3657
02:12:48,050 --> 02:12:46,860
think it is limited in what it can

3658
02:12:50,330 --> 02:12:48,060
achieve

3659
02:12:53,510 --> 02:12:50,340
um I don't think that by changing your

3660
02:12:54,950 --> 02:12:53,520
expectations you can shrink a tumor for

3661
02:12:56,870 --> 02:12:54,960
example you know and I think there have

3662
02:12:59,149 --> 02:12:56,880
been studies that try to look at things

3663
02:13:01,010 --> 02:12:59,159
that optimism amongst cancer patients

3664
02:13:04,250 --> 02:13:01,020
and you know I don't think you see a

3665
02:13:06,410 --> 02:13:04,260
strong effect from that and

3666
02:13:08,930 --> 02:13:06,420
I actually think there's a danger with

3667
02:13:10,850 --> 02:13:08,940
over claiming that people are only going

3668
02:13:12,830 --> 02:13:10,860
to be disappointed or that they might

3669
02:13:16,250 --> 02:13:12,840
even start to blame themselves you know

3670
02:13:18,830 --> 02:13:16,260
if they are not getting better from some

3671
02:13:20,330 --> 02:13:18,840
illness like um you know right so they

3672
02:13:22,010 --> 02:13:20,340
think it's because they're not being

3673
02:13:24,589 --> 02:13:22,020
positive enough that only adds to the

3674
02:13:27,350 --> 02:13:24,599
stress and makes them you know makes a

3675
02:13:29,209 --> 02:13:27,360
bad situation even more terrible so

3676
02:13:31,310 --> 02:13:29,219
that's why I think like I've cried

3677
02:13:32,810 --> 02:13:31,320
really carefully to look at like I said

3678
02:13:34,490 --> 02:13:32,820
like the effects that I think are

3679
02:13:36,109 --> 02:13:34,500
supported by like a substantial number

3680
02:13:36,709 --> 02:13:36,119
of studies

3681
02:13:38,569 --> 02:13:36,719
um

3682
02:13:40,850 --> 02:13:38,579
you know so your book is like the

3683
02:13:42,950 --> 02:13:40,860
scientific version of The Secret yeah

3684
02:13:45,169 --> 02:13:42,960
that's exactly how I want it but yeah

3685
02:13:47,390 --> 02:13:45,179
and it's like you know but also I think

3686
02:13:49,910 --> 02:13:47,400
just because it can't perform what I

3687
02:13:51,649 --> 02:13:49,920
would say are Miracles you know like

3688
02:13:54,770 --> 02:13:51,659
curing cancer it doesn't mean that it's

3689
02:13:56,689 --> 02:13:54,780
not really significant and that it

3690
02:13:59,089 --> 02:13:56,699
doesn't have a really profound effect on

3691
02:14:02,030 --> 02:13:59,099
our life and actually we know that say

3692
02:14:04,069 --> 02:14:02,040
your beliefs about aging do seem to

3693
02:14:06,109 --> 02:14:04,079
predict your longevity

3694
02:14:08,450 --> 02:14:06,119
um but that's not through some kind of

3695
02:14:10,490 --> 02:14:08,460
unknown mechanism that's actually pretty

3696
02:14:13,629 --> 02:14:10,500
very well established mechanisms and

3697
02:14:16,310 --> 02:14:13,639
essentially if you associate aging with

3698
02:14:18,050 --> 02:14:16,320
uh decline in disability and all of

3699
02:14:19,910 --> 02:14:18,060
these things well that makes you less

3700
02:14:22,069 --> 02:14:19,920
active so there's a behavioral component

3701
02:14:23,569 --> 02:14:22,079
there's also like increases your stress

3702
02:14:25,790 --> 02:14:23,579
you know over months and then years

3703
02:14:27,470 --> 02:14:25,800
because if you think as you're getting

3704
02:14:29,750 --> 02:14:27,480
older but your life is kind of Gonna

3705
02:14:30,830 --> 02:14:29,760
Fall to Pieces right that makes all of

3706
02:14:33,229 --> 02:14:30,840
the challenges you've placed more

3707
02:14:35,569 --> 02:14:33,239
stressful it raises cortisol levels so

3708
02:14:38,149 --> 02:14:35,579
that they're chronically High erases

3709
02:14:40,370 --> 02:14:38,159
inflammation that causes biological

3710
02:14:42,290 --> 02:14:40,380
damage and then that predisposes you to

3711
02:14:45,050 --> 02:14:42,300
illness and then we know that that can

3712
02:14:47,209 --> 02:14:45,060
change uh gene expression within the

3713
02:14:49,669 --> 02:14:47,219
cells so you start to have the

3714
02:14:52,250 --> 02:14:49,679
biological clock as it's known kind of

3715
02:14:54,530 --> 02:14:52,260
ticking at a faster rate all that's very

3716
02:14:56,030 --> 02:14:54,540
well documented I said that's incredible

3717
02:14:58,010 --> 02:14:56,040
and actually according to one

3718
02:14:59,750 --> 02:14:58,020
longitudinal study the difference

3719
02:15:02,089 --> 02:14:59,760
between people with the positive and the

3720
02:15:04,669 --> 02:15:02,099
negative use of Aging the positive view

3721
02:15:06,709 --> 02:15:04,679
would be that you see aging as a time a

3722
02:15:08,569 --> 02:15:06,719
kind of Greater wisdom you know new

3723
02:15:10,910 --> 02:15:08,579
possibilities the difference between

3724
02:15:14,030 --> 02:15:10,920
those two mindsets actually was about

3725
02:15:16,129 --> 02:15:14,040
seven and a half years in

3726
02:15:18,050 --> 02:15:16,139
lifespan so it's you know really

3727
02:15:19,729 --> 02:15:18,060
profound but I'm not quality of life

3728
02:15:21,709 --> 02:15:19,739
increased as well or no just yeah

3729
02:15:23,629 --> 02:15:21,719
exactly quality of life you know let's

3730
02:15:25,209 --> 02:15:23,639
just say Best of Both Worlds great great

3731
02:15:27,290 --> 02:15:25,219
susceptible to alzheimer's

3732
02:15:28,490 --> 02:15:27,300
cardiovascular disease to all of these

3733
02:15:30,770 --> 02:15:28,500
things

3734
02:15:33,169 --> 02:15:30,780
um but it's like but I don't find any of

3735
02:15:35,750 --> 02:15:33,179
those mechanisms miraculous actually I

3736
02:15:37,669 --> 02:15:35,760
just think it's it's what we know we

3737
02:15:39,169 --> 02:15:37,679
know about how the mind can affect

3738
02:15:40,850 --> 02:15:39,179
behavioral we know how the mind can

3739
02:15:43,189 --> 02:15:40,860
affect stress and stress can affect

3740
02:15:45,169 --> 02:15:43,199
illness it's just linking them all

3741
02:15:46,669 --> 02:15:45,179
together and showing that something that

3742
02:15:49,010 --> 02:15:46,679
you you might

3743
02:15:52,790 --> 02:15:49,020
but not think to be that important

3744
02:15:55,850 --> 02:15:52,800
actually over time over decades adds up

3745
02:15:58,669 --> 02:15:55,860
and really makes a difference

3746
02:16:01,129 --> 02:15:58,679
yeah that's remarkable do you imagine

3747
02:16:02,990 --> 02:16:01,139
that if you were to intervene in

3748
02:16:05,810 --> 02:16:03,000
someone's life if you were to impart in

3749
02:16:07,609 --> 02:16:05,820
them a set of beliefs that that would

3750
02:16:09,950 --> 02:16:07,619
increase their not only quality of life

3751
02:16:11,270 --> 02:16:09,960
but their lifespan and if so what are

3752
02:16:13,310 --> 02:16:11,280
those beliefs like if you were to

3753
02:16:15,589 --> 02:16:13,320
prescribe it with all the disclaimers

3754
02:16:16,970 --> 02:16:15,599
that come along with that yeah exactly I

3755
02:16:19,250 --> 02:16:16,980
mean no one has performed because

3756
02:16:20,930 --> 02:16:19,260
ideally you would have like a 40-year

3757
02:16:22,550 --> 02:16:20,940
study where you'd change people's

3758
02:16:24,770 --> 02:16:22,560
beliefs and you kept on coming back to

3759
02:16:26,810 --> 02:16:24,780
them you know the research hasn't been

3760
02:16:29,810 --> 02:16:26,820
around long enough to do that but there

3761
02:16:32,150 --> 02:16:29,820
are short-term studies where you kind of

3762
02:16:34,070 --> 02:16:32,160
give people like an exercise program and

3763
02:16:36,650 --> 02:16:34,080
then some of these people are also given

3764
02:16:38,290 --> 02:16:36,660
uh psychological supports alongside the

3765
02:16:40,310 --> 02:16:38,300
exercise program so they might be

3766
02:16:41,870 --> 02:16:40,320
encouraged to kind of think about their

3767
02:16:43,969 --> 02:16:41,880
bodies in a different way to kind of

3768
02:16:45,830 --> 02:16:43,979
embrace the fact that as they're

3769
02:16:48,589 --> 02:16:45,840
exercising that they're actually

3770
02:16:51,290 --> 02:16:48,599
outperforming people of a similar age to

3771
02:16:55,009 --> 02:16:51,300
themselves you know so you falsify the

3772
02:16:57,169 --> 02:16:55,019
data to tell them this or you just yeah

3773
02:16:59,270 --> 02:16:57,179
um yeah I can't remember to be honest it

3774
02:17:00,589 --> 02:16:59,280
might have been falsified in one study I

3775
02:17:02,209 --> 02:17:00,599
think in others you're just kind of

3776
02:17:04,490 --> 02:17:02,219
feeding them this positive information

3777
02:17:07,310 --> 02:17:04,500
that you know your health is within your

3778
02:17:09,110 --> 02:17:07,320
control and as you age that you can you

3779
02:17:11,750 --> 02:17:09,120
can actually like um benefit from

3780
02:17:13,490 --> 02:17:11,760
exercise and you know that there are

3781
02:17:14,629 --> 02:17:13,500
these other opportunities no matter how

3782
02:17:16,070 --> 02:17:14,639
old you are

3783
02:17:19,250 --> 02:17:16,080
um and what you find is that when you

3784
02:17:20,570 --> 02:17:19,260
change the mindset in those ways but um

3785
02:17:21,950 --> 02:17:20,580
whether it's through deception or

3786
02:17:23,810 --> 02:17:21,960
whether it's just through kind of

3787
02:17:26,629 --> 02:17:23,820
positive encouragement that you seek

3788
02:17:29,089 --> 02:17:26,639
greater benefits for those people so

3789
02:17:31,250 --> 02:17:29,099
that's you know it's only over a couple

3790
02:17:33,469 --> 02:17:31,260
of months but like you do get this

3791
02:17:35,330 --> 02:17:33,479
signal that changing the mindset really

3792
02:17:37,730 --> 02:17:35,340
is being beneficial there's another

3793
02:17:40,849 --> 02:17:37,740
study that had looked at giving people

3794
02:17:42,049 --> 02:17:40,859
subliminal uh signals through kind of

3795
02:17:43,610 --> 02:17:42,059
compute again they were playing these

3796
02:17:45,770 --> 02:17:43,620
were old people and they found that

3797
02:17:48,169 --> 02:17:45,780
actually giving them subliminal signals

3798
02:17:50,750 --> 02:17:48,179
to give them positive associations with

3799
02:17:52,490 --> 02:17:50,760
aging but that again was associated with

3800
02:17:54,650 --> 02:17:52,500
an improvement in their health from

3801
02:17:57,049 --> 02:17:54,660
actually the size of those improvements

3802
02:17:59,450 --> 02:17:57,059
were equivalent to doing a proper

3803
02:18:00,589 --> 02:17:59,460
exercise program so really quite

3804
02:18:01,910 --> 02:18:00,599
significant

3805
02:18:04,250 --> 02:18:01,920
what does this say about the

3806
02:18:06,469 --> 02:18:04,260
relationship of Consciousness to reality

3807
02:18:08,270 --> 02:18:06,479
the fact that if we believe so and so it

3808
02:18:09,830 --> 02:18:08,280
increases the chances of so and so

3809
02:18:11,450 --> 02:18:09,840
believe which is an aspect of

3810
02:18:13,910 --> 02:18:11,460
Consciousness increases the tens of so

3811
02:18:15,469 --> 02:18:13,920
and so in a external reality if there is

3812
02:18:17,209 --> 02:18:15,479
external because there's some people who

3813
02:18:19,849 --> 02:18:17,219
are idealists and so on

3814
02:18:22,190 --> 02:18:19,859
right exactly so

3815
02:18:23,810 --> 02:18:22,200
you know I don't to be honest I'm

3816
02:18:25,190 --> 02:18:23,820
fascinated by all kinds of theories of

3817
02:18:27,410 --> 02:18:25,200
Consciousness and the idea that we're

3818
02:18:29,330 --> 02:18:27,420
living in a simulation and all of that I

3819
02:18:31,669 --> 02:18:29,340
don't think this research tells us

3820
02:18:34,490 --> 02:18:31,679
anything about that

3821
02:18:36,830 --> 02:18:34,500
um but I do think on a more superficial

3822
02:18:39,469 --> 02:18:36,840
kind of level not as profound as what is

3823
02:18:41,509 --> 02:18:39,479
the nature of reality but like you know

3824
02:18:45,110 --> 02:18:41,519
this is essentially what we're showing

3825
02:18:46,190 --> 02:18:45,120
is that our thought processes are

3826
02:18:49,610 --> 02:18:46,200
changing

3827
02:18:53,089 --> 02:18:49,620
our reality in the future and again

3828
02:18:55,330 --> 02:18:53,099
that's through just very I wouldn't say

3829
02:18:58,190 --> 02:18:55,340
mundane but very well accepted

3830
02:19:00,889 --> 02:18:58,200
behavioral perceptual and physiological

3831
02:19:03,830 --> 02:19:00,899
mechanisms that we know happen day to

3832
02:19:06,169 --> 02:19:03,840
day hour to hour and all this is showing

3833
02:19:07,730 --> 02:19:06,179
is that actually sometimes the effects

3834
02:19:09,230 --> 02:19:07,740
can you know add up and be really

3835
02:19:11,810 --> 02:19:09,240
profound

3836
02:19:13,429 --> 02:19:11,820
um you know I I always like to say

3837
02:19:15,650 --> 02:19:13,439
actually like we know that our mindset

3838
02:19:17,389 --> 02:19:15,660
can shape our bodies like all the time

3839
02:19:19,190 --> 02:19:17,399
if you think of your favorite food your

3840
02:19:21,530 --> 02:19:19,200
mouth starts celebrating it's producing

3841
02:19:24,230 --> 02:19:21,540
enzymes to help you to

3842
02:19:26,509 --> 02:19:24,240
digest that food you know that is an

3843
02:19:28,070 --> 02:19:26,519
example of an expectation effect

3844
02:19:29,990 --> 02:19:28,080
um if you feel nervous you start to get

3845
02:19:32,330 --> 02:19:30,000
cramps in your stomach that's an example

3846
02:19:35,030 --> 02:19:32,340
of your brain evading your digestive

3847
02:19:36,530 --> 02:19:35,040
system this the expectation effect is

3848
02:19:39,049 --> 02:19:36,540
just showing that actually you know

3849
02:19:41,150 --> 02:19:39,059
those might seem tribulous like trivial

3850
02:19:44,810 --> 02:19:41,160
examples but actually there are lots of

3851
02:19:46,610 --> 02:19:44,820
ways that we haven't acknowledged or

3852
02:19:49,670 --> 02:19:46,620
um put to use previously that we can

3853
02:19:52,010 --> 02:19:49,680
harness to improve our wellness and our

3854
02:19:53,570 --> 02:19:52,020
health and even our longevity and that

3855
02:19:56,150 --> 02:19:53,580
now we have that knowledge there are

3856
02:19:58,250 --> 02:19:56,160
very specific techniques you can use to

3857
02:20:00,290 --> 02:19:58,260
to really make the most of the mind-body

3858
02:20:03,650 --> 02:20:00,300
connection have you looked into the

3859
02:20:05,990 --> 02:20:03,660
subject of ego depletion yes so I mean

3860
02:20:08,210 --> 02:20:06,000
that's fascinating

3861
02:20:09,889 --> 02:20:08,220
um again like an area where you had like

3862
02:20:11,410 --> 02:20:09,899
a huge body of research and then like

3863
02:20:14,210 --> 02:20:11,420
there seems to be some contradictory

3864
02:20:15,889 --> 02:20:14,220
evidence but essentially are you

3865
02:20:17,929 --> 02:20:15,899
referring to the replication crisis

3866
02:20:19,490 --> 02:20:17,939
because I don't know if that okay but

3867
02:20:22,130 --> 02:20:19,500
then one reason that they might not be

3868
02:20:24,590 --> 02:20:22,140
replicable these studies is the fact

3869
02:20:26,450 --> 02:20:24,600
that actually mindset plays a role in

3870
02:20:29,810 --> 02:20:26,460
ego depletion so if you expect to be

3871
02:20:31,670 --> 02:20:29,820
depleted you become more depleted if you

3872
02:20:34,730 --> 02:20:31,680
think that your willpower is kind of

3873
02:20:36,290 --> 02:20:34,740
unlimited and that actually the more you

3874
02:20:37,730 --> 02:20:36,300
practice your willpower the more you can

3875
02:20:40,190 --> 02:20:37,740
get into that zone when you're doing

3876
02:20:42,590 --> 02:20:40,200
those difficult problems if you believe

3877
02:20:44,389 --> 02:20:42,600
that then actually that becomes your

3878
02:20:46,849 --> 02:20:44,399
reality and you find that your

3879
02:20:49,790 --> 02:20:46,859
concentration kind of uh you know

3880
02:20:52,370 --> 02:20:49,800
actually grows as you focus on the task

3881
02:20:55,190 --> 02:20:52,380
ahead so yeah you know

3882
02:20:56,809 --> 02:20:55,200
uh how where we stand on ego depletion

3883
02:20:58,670 --> 02:20:56,819
in general like I wouldn't like to say

3884
02:21:01,610 --> 02:20:58,680
but absolutely mindsets are having an

3885
02:21:04,070 --> 02:21:01,620
effect there in some way or another

3886
02:21:06,349 --> 02:21:04,080
before we start to wrap I want you to

3887
02:21:08,510 --> 02:21:06,359
explain what the pilot site test is and

3888
02:21:10,670 --> 02:21:08,520
then why is it important

3889
02:21:11,570 --> 02:21:10,680
okay I mean this was

3890
02:21:13,730 --> 02:21:11,580
um

3891
02:21:15,770 --> 02:21:13,740
study from a few years ago I'd say when

3892
02:21:18,050 --> 02:21:15,780
the research on the expectation effect

3893
02:21:20,270 --> 02:21:18,060
was really starting to expand beyond the

3894
02:21:22,790 --> 02:21:20,280
placebo of fatal medicine and it was

3895
02:21:25,190 --> 02:21:22,800
just looking at how people's vision is

3896
02:21:26,630 --> 02:21:25,200
affected by their expectations

3897
02:21:28,130 --> 02:21:26,640
um now I've mentioned throughout the

3898
02:21:31,250 --> 02:21:28,140
conversation

3899
02:21:33,290 --> 02:21:31,260
that one of the pathways that the

3900
02:21:35,450 --> 02:21:33,300
expectation effect can influence us is

3901
02:21:37,790 --> 02:21:35,460
through perception

3902
02:21:40,070 --> 02:21:37,800
um we know this from all kinds of

3903
02:21:42,530 --> 02:21:40,080
studies you know the taste of food

3904
02:21:45,650 --> 02:21:42,540
depends on what you expect the food to

3905
02:21:48,110 --> 02:21:45,660
taste like if you the same chemical that

3906
02:21:50,809 --> 02:21:48,120
causes parmesan to smell so delicious

3907
02:21:53,030 --> 02:21:50,819
it's actually also behind the smell of

3908
02:21:54,710 --> 02:21:53,040
vomit but our conscious experience is

3909
02:21:56,690 --> 02:21:54,720
very different depending on which we

3910
02:21:57,530 --> 02:21:56,700
believe that we're smelling

3911
02:21:59,389 --> 02:21:57,540
um

3912
02:22:01,490 --> 02:21:59,399
it just seems that this also happens

3913
02:22:04,849 --> 02:22:01,500
with vision and with the clarity of

3914
02:22:06,710 --> 02:22:04,859
vision so this study by Ellen Langer at

3915
02:22:08,030 --> 02:22:06,720
Harvard University seemed to suggest

3916
02:22:10,550 --> 02:22:08,040
that if you

3917
02:22:13,849 --> 02:22:10,560
lead people to believe that their vision

3918
02:22:15,889 --> 02:22:13,859
is going to be more acute

3919
02:22:18,950 --> 02:22:15,899
than it really is

3920
02:22:21,410 --> 02:22:18,960
then that can actually help them to see

3921
02:22:23,630 --> 02:22:21,420
more clearly and just seems to be that

3922
02:22:25,790 --> 02:22:23,640
the we know the brain does a lot of work

3923
02:22:28,429 --> 02:22:25,800
in tidying up our vision

3924
02:22:30,469 --> 02:22:28,439
um the stuff that hits our retinas those

3925
02:22:31,790 --> 02:22:30,479
patterns are not what we consciously

3926
02:22:34,429 --> 02:22:31,800
experience because there's so much

3927
02:22:36,170 --> 02:22:34,439
processing going on in the brain and it

3928
02:22:40,010 --> 02:22:36,180
seems that actually

3929
02:22:41,570 --> 02:22:40,020
this when you she kind of primed people

3930
02:22:43,250 --> 02:22:41,580
to believe that they were going to have

3931
02:22:45,349 --> 02:22:43,260
better Vision by putting them in a

3932
02:22:46,510 --> 02:22:45,359
flight simulator and telling them that

3933
02:22:50,270 --> 02:22:46,520
they were kind of

3934
02:22:52,309 --> 02:22:50,280
uh acting as expert Pilots or that she

3935
02:22:53,630 --> 02:22:52,319
gave them exercises that led them to

3936
02:22:55,610 --> 02:22:53,640
believe that their eyesight was going to

3937
02:22:57,770 --> 02:22:55,620
improve or she turned the site test

3938
02:22:59,630 --> 02:22:57,780
upside down so that the smaller letters

3939
02:23:01,730 --> 02:22:59,640
were at the top and people have this

3940
02:23:04,429 --> 02:23:01,740
Association that they can read the first

3941
02:23:06,770 --> 02:23:04,439
line on the site chart you know in all

3942
02:23:09,050 --> 02:23:06,780
of these cases multiple experiments

3943
02:23:11,150 --> 02:23:09,060
people's Vision did seem to improve

3944
02:23:13,849 --> 02:23:11,160
compared to the control groups who

3945
02:23:16,130 --> 02:23:13,859
aren't given the same kind of priming to

3946
02:23:18,170 --> 02:23:16,140
to believe that their site was gonna be

3947
02:23:21,170 --> 02:23:18,180
better than than it was

3948
02:23:23,570 --> 02:23:21,180
um now you know I'm really careful in my

3949
02:23:25,490 --> 02:23:23,580
book to say this isn't uh an excuse to

3950
02:23:26,929 --> 02:23:25,500
kind of throw away your glasses you know

3951
02:23:28,250 --> 02:23:26,939
these were kind of short-term

3952
02:23:30,170 --> 02:23:28,260
experiments

3953
02:23:32,150 --> 02:23:30,180
um but I do think it's still quite

3954
02:23:34,130 --> 02:23:32,160
profound that like

3955
02:23:35,929 --> 02:23:34,140
what we're

3956
02:23:38,690 --> 02:23:35,939
that something as basic as kind of

3957
02:23:41,809 --> 02:23:38,700
eyesight can insult to a certain extent

3958
02:23:43,190 --> 02:23:41,819
be influenced by our beliefs and

3959
02:23:45,889 --> 02:23:43,200
actually there's independent research

3960
02:23:47,929 --> 02:23:45,899
showing that you know like if you if

3961
02:23:49,429 --> 02:23:47,939
you're a bit short-sighted and you see a

3962
02:23:51,410 --> 02:23:49,439
road sign but you know what it's going

3963
02:23:53,210 --> 02:23:51,420
to say will you actually see that sign

3964
02:23:54,650 --> 02:23:53,220
more clearly than if it was an

3965
02:23:56,690 --> 02:23:54,660
unfamiliar sign where you don't know

3966
02:23:58,490 --> 02:23:56,700
what the letters are going to read so

3967
02:24:00,650 --> 02:23:58,500
actually it fits with multiple studies

3968
02:24:02,750 --> 02:24:00,660
it's not just Ellen Langer's research

3969
02:24:03,370 --> 02:24:02,760
that shows that

3970
02:24:05,929 --> 02:24:03,380
um

3971
02:24:08,330 --> 02:24:05,939
expectations can shape visual perception

3972
02:24:10,610 --> 02:24:08,340
it was just one study though that I

3973
02:24:11,570 --> 02:24:10,620
found especially fascinating see I'm

3974
02:24:13,490 --> 02:24:11,580
wondering now if there's a connection

3975
02:24:15,290 --> 02:24:13,500
between this and something we talked

3976
02:24:16,610 --> 02:24:15,300
about from your earlier book I asked is

3977
02:24:18,650 --> 02:24:16,620
there an association between arrogance

3978
02:24:20,270 --> 02:24:18,660
and intelligence he said not exactly at

3979
02:24:22,250 --> 02:24:20,280
least that hasn't been studied but there

3980
02:24:24,530 --> 02:24:22,260
is an association with people who are

3981
02:24:26,389 --> 02:24:24,540
intelligent then believing that they are

3982
02:24:28,429 --> 02:24:26,399
less susceptible to cognitive biases and

3983
02:24:30,290 --> 02:24:28,439
I'm wondering now if priming for visual

3984
02:24:31,790 --> 02:24:30,300
Acuity if you tell someone hey you you

3985
02:24:33,650 --> 02:24:31,800
have great vision then all of a sudden

3986
02:24:35,870 --> 02:24:33,660
you can see a bit better if that's the

3987
02:24:37,670 --> 02:24:35,880
case then maybe it's not intelligence

3988
02:24:40,010 --> 02:24:37,680
breeds arrogance but arrogance breeds

3989
02:24:41,389 --> 02:24:40,020
intelligence because you're like hey I

3990
02:24:43,370 --> 02:24:41,399
believe I'm much more intelligent and

3991
02:24:45,889 --> 02:24:43,380
then so I become a bit more intelligent

3992
02:24:48,290 --> 02:24:45,899
now maybe I'm taking it a bit too far

3993
02:24:50,450 --> 02:24:48,300
but is there an association there is it

3994
02:24:52,550 --> 02:24:50,460
like an increase of five IQ points ten

3995
02:24:55,070 --> 02:24:52,560
IQ points can't say that

3996
02:24:56,809 --> 02:24:55,080
well like um so you know there have been

3997
02:24:58,969 --> 02:24:56,819
all of these apps looking at kind of

3998
02:25:01,730 --> 02:24:58,979
brain training and they've been again

3999
02:25:03,650 --> 02:25:01,740
contradictory evidence but some really

4000
02:25:06,290 --> 02:25:03,660
seem to show that people do these kinds

4001
02:25:07,550 --> 02:25:06,300
of games then they improve their IQ

4002
02:25:10,929 --> 02:25:07,560
scores

4003
02:25:13,010 --> 02:25:10,939
um but what scientists at around 2015

4004
02:25:15,469 --> 02:25:13,020
realized was that way but these

4005
02:25:17,150 --> 02:25:15,479
participants were recruited kind of

4006
02:25:18,889 --> 02:25:17,160
primed them to expect that they were

4007
02:25:21,530 --> 02:25:18,899
gonna see those improvements you know

4008
02:25:24,050 --> 02:25:21,540
the adverts were often like

4009
02:25:26,510 --> 02:25:24,060
um you know want to help with a test of

4010
02:25:29,389 --> 02:25:26,520
brain enhancement you know

4011
02:25:31,910 --> 02:25:29,399
um control interesting like this room

4012
02:25:33,710 --> 02:25:31,920
um and they looked they analyzed that

4013
02:25:36,410 --> 02:25:33,720
data those historic studies and they

4014
02:25:38,870 --> 02:25:36,420
showed that those with the kind of

4015
02:25:41,510 --> 02:25:38,880
posters that had primed the expectation

4016
02:25:44,090 --> 02:25:41,520
of improved intelligence did see greater

4017
02:25:45,889 --> 02:25:44,100
gains because of the

4018
02:25:47,870 --> 02:25:45,899
um associated with the brain training

4019
02:25:49,610 --> 02:25:47,880
compared to those who haven't

4020
02:25:51,530 --> 02:25:49,620
um they then did their own independence

4021
02:25:53,809 --> 02:25:51,540
study which showed exactly what they'd

4022
02:25:55,730 --> 02:25:53,819
predicted that actually if you tell

4023
02:25:57,469 --> 02:25:55,740
people but by doing these tasks they're

4024
02:26:00,230 --> 02:25:57,479
going to get smarter they improve their

4025
02:26:02,870 --> 02:26:00,240
performance by about five IQ points so

4026
02:26:04,550 --> 02:26:02,880
it did seem to suggest that there is a

4027
02:26:07,610 --> 02:26:04,560
benefit to that and actually it's been

4028
02:26:09,230 --> 02:26:07,620
replicated just earlier this um well uh

4029
02:26:11,150 --> 02:26:09,240
last year at the end of last year a

4030
02:26:13,550 --> 02:26:11,160
similar study

4031
02:26:16,429 --> 02:26:13,560
um so I do think like having that

4032
02:26:18,530 --> 02:26:16,439
self-belief can be really valuable but

4033
02:26:21,230 --> 02:26:18,540
in my opinion like we don't want to

4034
02:26:22,670 --> 02:26:21,240
develop overconfidence because that is

4035
02:26:26,530 --> 02:26:22,680
also associated with greater

4036
02:26:29,870 --> 02:26:26,540
susceptibility to numerous biases

4037
02:26:31,610 --> 02:26:29,880
it might help your IQ it might also ban

4038
02:26:33,290 --> 02:26:31,620
damage your reasoning and decision

4039
02:26:36,530 --> 02:26:33,300
making but I think what's important

4040
02:26:40,370 --> 02:26:36,540
there is still to kind of recognize this

4041
02:26:41,630 --> 02:26:40,380
Your Capacity to grow and improve and it

4042
02:26:44,150 --> 02:26:41,640
comes back to what we were talking about

4043
02:26:46,790 --> 02:26:44,160
with how we can boost our learning if

4044
02:26:49,730 --> 02:26:46,800
you see frustration as being inherent in

4045
02:26:52,070 --> 02:26:49,740
your intellectual growth that will make

4046
02:26:53,929 --> 02:26:52,080
your intellectual growth more likely and

4047
02:26:56,630 --> 02:26:53,939
I think it's you know very much the same

4048
02:26:58,610 --> 02:26:56,640
phenomena now taking this back to how

4049
02:27:00,710 --> 02:26:58,620
far can we push this I know that's a

4050
02:27:02,929 --> 02:27:00,720
dangerous question it sounds like we

4051
02:27:04,370 --> 02:27:02,939
have untapped potential now what that is

4052
02:27:05,990 --> 02:27:04,380
in terms of a percentage well it may

4053
02:27:08,030 --> 02:27:06,000
vary from task to task if you can even

4054
02:27:10,450 --> 02:27:08,040
place a number on it now there is a

4055
02:27:12,710 --> 02:27:10,460
phenomenon called induced savantism

4056
02:27:14,030 --> 02:27:12,720
acquired savantism you don't induce it

4057
02:27:16,910 --> 02:27:14,040
it's just called the acquired someone

4058
02:27:20,450 --> 02:27:16,920
for people who don't know there are some

4059
02:27:24,050 --> 02:27:20,460
people called savants who they seem

4060
02:27:26,090 --> 02:27:24,060
to be not up to par intellectually in

4061
02:27:28,490 --> 02:27:26,100
most tasks except one where they're

4062
02:27:30,889 --> 02:27:28,500
extremely versed extremely well so like

4063
02:27:32,929 --> 02:27:30,899
they could read at a rate five times the

4064
02:27:34,910 --> 02:27:32,939
ordinary person or they can play music

4065
02:27:36,530 --> 02:27:34,920
just from hearing a song once or

4066
02:27:38,330 --> 02:27:36,540
recreate a scene from seeing it in like

4067
02:27:40,070 --> 02:27:38,340
a second then there are some people who

4068
02:27:42,469 --> 02:27:40,080
through some neurological defect that

4069
02:27:44,690 --> 02:27:42,479
occurs later in life they were Ordinary

4070
02:27:46,010 --> 02:27:44,700
People and they're even ordinary quote

4071
02:27:49,010 --> 02:27:46,020
unquote afterward

4072
02:27:50,630 --> 02:27:49,020
but after the trauma they have acquired

4073
02:27:52,550 --> 02:27:50,640
some ability that ordinarily is

4074
02:27:53,929 --> 02:27:52,560
associated only with savants and it

4075
02:27:56,450 --> 02:27:53,939
seems like most of our neurological

4076
02:27:57,830 --> 02:27:56,460
activity is inhibitory strangely enough

4077
02:27:59,090 --> 02:27:57,840
we would think that hey that we have

4078
02:28:00,650 --> 02:27:59,100
this whole prefrontal cortex is doing

4079
02:28:02,270 --> 02:28:00,660
all these calculations and producing

4080
02:28:03,590 --> 02:28:02,280
content it's stymying most of what's

4081
02:28:06,230 --> 02:28:03,600
occurring so it's like stopping some

4082
02:28:08,030 --> 02:28:06,240
reflexes well anyway I was just

4083
02:28:09,469 --> 02:28:08,040
wondering if you have come across a

4084
02:28:13,429 --> 02:28:09,479
relationship between the expectation

4085
02:28:16,969 --> 02:28:13,439
effect and acquired savantism

4086
02:28:18,950 --> 02:28:16,979
I have a remarkable abilities in general

4087
02:28:21,770 --> 02:28:18,960
so I'd have to say

4088
02:28:23,630 --> 02:28:21,780
I'm not 100 familiar with the research

4089
02:28:25,670 --> 02:28:23,640
on acquired cervantism too because I'd

4090
02:28:28,370 --> 02:28:25,680
heard I'm not sure if it's true with

4091
02:28:30,349 --> 02:28:28,380
some of the people who show

4092
02:28:32,270 --> 02:28:30,359
amazing creativity well they show

4093
02:28:33,770 --> 02:28:32,280
amazing kind of productivity with their

4094
02:28:36,110 --> 02:28:33,780
creativity but whatever it's actually

4095
02:28:39,290 --> 02:28:36,120
independently rated as being original

4096
02:28:42,050 --> 02:28:39,300
and Innovative and fantastic you know in

4097
02:28:45,469 --> 02:28:42,060
the same way but say the

4098
02:28:47,630 --> 02:28:45,479
um innate uh savants are you know that I

4099
02:28:50,210 --> 02:28:47,640
think I'd heard that was another matter

4100
02:28:52,910 --> 02:28:50,220
that maybe they they're not inhibited

4101
02:28:54,710 --> 02:28:52,920
and that they really you know have it

4102
02:28:55,969 --> 02:28:54,720
feel compelled to create but whether

4103
02:28:57,710 --> 02:28:55,979
it's actually of a high quality

4104
02:28:59,929 --> 02:28:57,720
according to other people's stunts it's

4105
02:29:01,790 --> 02:28:59,939
an upper question but I do think there

4106
02:29:03,830 --> 02:29:01,800
is this kind of you know even just

4107
02:29:05,330 --> 02:29:03,840
creating is something that we hold

4108
02:29:07,969 --> 02:29:05,340
ourselves back from like lots of people

4109
02:29:10,670 --> 02:29:07,979
have creative anxiety where we're so

4110
02:29:13,010 --> 02:29:10,680
worried about expressing ourselves that

4111
02:29:14,710 --> 02:29:13,020
we just don't do it so we find

4112
02:29:19,070 --> 02:29:14,720
brainstorming really

4113
02:29:22,250 --> 02:29:19,080
excruciating we feel we put limits on

4114
02:29:23,929 --> 02:29:22,260
you know our own idea generation I do

4115
02:29:26,510 --> 02:29:23,939
think that actually the expectation

4116
02:29:28,309 --> 02:29:26,520
effect is really relevant in that case

4117
02:29:31,130 --> 02:29:28,319
uh it might not make you I mean

4118
02:29:33,830 --> 02:29:31,140
immediately have the creativity of

4119
02:29:37,730 --> 02:29:33,840
Leonardo da Vinci but I think if you

4120
02:29:40,250 --> 02:29:37,740
have this ability this belief that your

4121
02:29:42,950 --> 02:29:40,260
creative efforts are valued and that

4122
02:29:45,410 --> 02:29:42,960
actually it's an incremental process you

4123
02:29:47,690 --> 02:29:45,420
recognize that your first idea might not

4124
02:29:50,090 --> 02:29:47,700
be your best idea but then you might

4125
02:29:52,130 --> 02:29:50,100
iteratively improve your ideas over time

4126
02:29:54,849 --> 02:29:52,140
I think that's the kind of belief that

4127
02:29:57,710 --> 02:29:54,859
will have an impact on your overall

4128
02:29:59,750 --> 02:29:57,720
quality of your create about over time

4129
02:30:02,330 --> 02:29:59,760
if you see it as something that can be

4130
02:30:04,429 --> 02:30:02,340
nurtured and you recognize that you you

4131
02:30:06,290 --> 02:30:04,439
don't have to limit yourself but you can

4132
02:30:08,210 --> 02:30:06,300
actually give free reign to your

4133
02:30:11,210 --> 02:30:08,220
creativity and then refine it I think

4134
02:30:13,429 --> 02:30:11,220
that's what you really want to aim for

4135
02:30:14,450 --> 02:30:13,439
so David what's your next book on and

4136
02:30:16,910 --> 02:30:14,460
what are you looking forward to this

4137
02:30:19,010 --> 02:30:16,920
year yeah so well I'm looking forward to

4138
02:30:22,250 --> 02:30:19,020
writing this book which is all about

4139
02:30:25,010 --> 02:30:22,260
um social connection I'll save that so

4140
02:30:27,830 --> 02:30:25,020
I'm super excited about that um and then

4141
02:30:30,410 --> 02:30:27,840
just you know other elements of my life

4142
02:30:32,330 --> 02:30:30,420
like I've been learning Italian for like

4143
02:30:34,490 --> 02:30:32,340
a few years and I'm gonna

4144
02:30:36,230 --> 02:30:34,500
um only go to ifley to spend like a

4145
02:30:38,510 --> 02:30:36,240
month or so there but I'm really great

4146
02:30:40,730 --> 02:30:38,520
to kind of gain the chance to kind of

4147
02:30:43,010 --> 02:30:40,740
immerse myself in that culture

4148
02:30:44,090 --> 02:30:43,020
um yeah those are the main things and

4149
02:30:46,070 --> 02:30:44,100
then just looking forward to my

4150
02:30:48,950 --> 02:30:46,080
journalism like I love just love coming

4151
02:30:50,809 --> 02:30:48,960
up with new ideas researching learning

4152
02:30:53,330 --> 02:30:50,819
new new stuff and then finding the best

4153
02:30:56,570 --> 02:30:53,340
way to present it and I'm continuing to

4154
02:30:58,550 --> 02:30:56,580
look that how did you learn Italian was

4155
02:31:01,130 --> 02:30:58,560
it through an app or

4156
02:31:03,530 --> 02:31:01,140
no it was pretty very boring an old

4157
02:31:04,490 --> 02:31:03,540
person through like evening classes and

4158
02:31:06,469 --> 02:31:04,500
then

4159
02:31:08,990 --> 02:31:06,479
um I've got Italian friends that I kind

4160
02:31:12,110 --> 02:31:09,000
of speak to really regularly now so it's

4161
02:31:13,550 --> 02:31:12,120
just constant practice and constant

4162
02:31:17,030 --> 02:31:13,560
um you know reading Italian stuff

4163
02:31:18,650 --> 02:31:17,040
listening to podcasts just you know very

4164
02:31:21,710 --> 02:31:18,660
boring just kind of putting in the work

4165
02:31:24,349 --> 02:31:21,720
yeah did you start to learn Italian

4166
02:31:25,610 --> 02:31:24,359
because you heard the research about if

4167
02:31:27,590 --> 02:31:25,620
you know another language you're more

4168
02:31:29,090 --> 02:31:27,600
open or you're more rational I remember

4169
02:31:31,790 --> 02:31:29,100
this was in the expectation effect I'm

4170
02:31:33,650 --> 02:31:31,800
not sure yeah it did influence me a bit

4171
02:31:36,950 --> 02:31:33,660
but it's also just I'm super interested

4172
02:31:39,050 --> 02:31:36,960
in Italian culture and the language and

4173
02:31:40,910 --> 02:31:39,060
the literature like so you know it's a

4174
02:31:42,170 --> 02:31:40,920
combination really it's just that

4175
02:31:44,030 --> 02:31:42,180
feeling you want to be able to

4176
02:31:45,950 --> 02:31:44,040
communicate with another group of people

4177
02:31:47,510 --> 02:31:45,960
and to see the world from their

4178
02:31:50,090 --> 02:31:47,520
perspective I think that's what's always

4179
02:31:52,309 --> 02:31:50,100
fascinated me great which place in Italy

4180
02:31:55,309 --> 02:31:52,319
are you looking forward to going uh Rome

4181
02:31:56,630 --> 02:31:55,319
great great you've never been uh I've

4182
02:31:58,490 --> 02:31:56,640
been on holiday but I'm just looking

4183
02:32:01,070 --> 02:31:58,500
forward to kind of I think the longer

4184
02:32:02,990 --> 02:32:01,080
you spend in a place like more you know

4185
02:32:05,929 --> 02:32:03,000
familiar you become more about the kind

4186
02:32:09,050 --> 02:32:05,939
of deeper you can understand it so yeah

4187
02:32:11,690 --> 02:32:09,060
great great well

4188
02:32:13,790 --> 02:32:11,700
man it's it's a pleasure thank you so

4189
02:32:15,710 --> 02:32:13,800
much for spending almost three hours

4190
02:32:18,469 --> 02:32:15,720
with me if not three hours

4191
02:32:20,690 --> 02:32:18,479
I appreciate it yeah my pleasure thanks

4192
02:32:22,670 --> 02:32:20,700
for such interesting questions

4193
02:32:25,250 --> 02:32:22,680
all right you just watched the episode

4194
02:32:27,349 --> 02:32:25,260
with David Robson thank you so much and

4195
02:32:29,450 --> 02:32:27,359
on the last point about people being

4196
02:32:31,490 --> 02:32:29,460
afraid to create I find that to be the

4197
02:32:33,469 --> 02:32:31,500
case people just need a push and so

4198
02:32:36,170 --> 02:32:33,479
earlier this year or earlier last year

4199
02:32:39,469 --> 02:32:36,180
we had this physics and Consciousness

4200
02:32:41,210 --> 02:32:39,479
explication contest where people who are

4201
02:32:43,969 --> 02:32:41,220
just on the verge of producing content

4202
02:32:46,309 --> 02:32:43,979
but needed a bit of a nudge we tried to

4203
02:32:48,770 --> 02:32:46,319
give him that at least modicum of an

4204
02:32:50,630 --> 02:32:48,780
incentive so the pace one the physics

4205
02:32:52,969 --> 02:32:50,640
and Consciousness explication contest

4206
02:32:54,290 --> 02:32:52,979
the winners are announced either now or

4207
02:32:56,030 --> 02:32:54,300
they're going to be announced and you

4208
02:32:57,950 --> 02:32:56,040
can look out for a video on that there

4209
02:32:59,990 --> 02:32:57,960
are several wonderful wonderful videos

4210
02:33:02,929 --> 02:33:00,000
that came from this contest this

4211
02:33:05,270 --> 02:33:02,939
Expedition this exploratory effort that

4212
02:33:07,190 --> 02:33:05,280
we engaged in together it's fascinating

4213
02:33:08,809 --> 02:33:07,200
it's unbelievable if you'd like to

4214
02:33:12,349 --> 02:33:08,819
contribute to theories of everything

4215
02:33:14,570 --> 02:33:12,359
then visit patreon.com Kurt jymungal

4216
02:33:16,490 --> 02:33:14,580
each dollar helps your support is what

4217
02:33:18,110 --> 02:33:16,500
allows there to be a full-time editor

4218
02:33:20,090 --> 02:33:18,120
who's editing this right now allows

4219
02:33:22,190 --> 02:33:20,100
there to be an operations manager who

4220
02:33:23,929 --> 02:33:22,200
manages my well who does virtually

4221
02:33:26,090 --> 02:33:23,939
everything around here and constantly

4222
02:33:28,610 --> 02:33:26,100
manages my disquietude and my

4223
02:33:30,110 --> 02:33:28,620
fretfulness and my stress and the fact

4224
02:33:32,750 --> 02:33:30,120
that I'm unnerved because there's so

4225
02:33:34,790 --> 02:33:32,760
much to do he relieves that he takes

4226
02:33:37,190 --> 02:33:34,800
many plates away from me so that's great

4227
02:33:39,530 --> 02:33:37,200
you're allowing that support so that we

4228
02:33:41,870 --> 02:33:39,540
can put out even higher quality podcasts

4229
02:33:44,450 --> 02:33:41,880
with even higher frequency thank you so

4230
02:33:45,710 --> 02:33:44,460
much the podcast is now concluded thank

4231
02:33:47,270 --> 02:33:45,720
you for watching if you haven't

4232
02:33:49,010 --> 02:33:47,280
subscribed or clicked on that like

4233
02:33:52,250 --> 02:33:49,020
button now would be a great time to do

4234
02:33:54,110 --> 02:33:52,260
so as each subscribe and like helps

4235
02:33:56,450 --> 02:33:54,120
YouTube push this content to more people

4236
02:33:58,670 --> 02:33:56,460
also I recently found out that external

4237
02:34:00,770 --> 02:33:58,680
links count plenty toward the algorithm

4238
02:34:02,929 --> 02:34:00,780
which means that when you share on

4239
02:34:05,090 --> 02:34:02,939
Twitter on Facebook on Reddit

4240
02:34:06,950 --> 02:34:05,100
Etc it shows YouTube that people are

4241
02:34:09,050 --> 02:34:06,960
talking about this outside of YouTube

4242
02:34:10,849 --> 02:34:09,060
which in turn greatly AIDS the

4243
02:34:12,530 --> 02:34:10,859
Distribution on YouTube as well if you'd

4244
02:34:14,830 --> 02:34:12,540
like to support more conversations like

4245
02:34:16,910 --> 02:34:14,840
this then do consider visiting

4246
02:34:19,130 --> 02:34:16,920
theoriesofeverything.org again it's

4247
02:34:21,650 --> 02:34:19,140
support from the sponsors and you that

4248
02:34:23,330 --> 02:34:21,660
allow me to work on toe full time you

4249
02:34:25,370 --> 02:34:23,340
get early access to ad-free audio

4250
02:34:27,530 --> 02:34:25,380
episodes there as well every dollar

4251
02:34:29,510 --> 02:34:27,540
helps far more than you may think either